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Stat Simulation – Game 4: #6 Texas Aggies vs SMU Mustangs

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Analyzing how the SMU Mustangs (0-2) stack up against the Fightin’ Texas Aggies (#6) in this week's Stat Simulation...

Ronald Martinez

As has been noted, several times, by many of my fellow Good Bull Hunting colleagues – SMU sucks. Seriously, they have scored one (1) touchdown, in mop up time, on a hail mary play – of course this means they are 1-1 (100%) in the redzone, tops in the country.

SMU forced me to rewrite my formula code to account for the fact that a team can be so bad that my prediction algorithm will actually assign them a NEGATIVE POINT TOTAL… so I had to go back and in a little excel formula code to ensure that no team, no matter how pathetic, could go below 0 points.  However, this will not take effect until next week, so I have left the original formula predictions in place – hello -7 and -11 points for SMU.

The Aggies may be without several starters again this week since we will obviously have the luxury of not needing them and still potentially being able to hang 70 points on SMU.  Sumlin on injuries:

"Speedy Noil (WR) probably will not play this weekend. I would say Zaycoven Henderson (DT) will play Saturday; Mike Matthews (OC) is probable; Jordan Mastrogiovanni (MLB) same; Cameron Clear (TE) same."

Before you skip to the analysis, please let me first explain the scope, drawbacks, and purpose of this chart. Once you're familiar with this information, you can happily skip ahead in the future. But I insist that you READ THIS NOW before you proceed.

Key to the chart below:
Blue Metric = Top 25 in the Nation
Red Metric = Bottom 25 in the nation
Advantage = One team is more than 20 spots ahead of the other team’s inverse metric in the national ranking; i.e. Texas A&M was ranked 68th in Rush Defense versus SMU’s 98th ranked Rushing Offense; therefore, due to A&M being 30 spots ahead of SMU in that metric's national ranking, they get the "advantage".


Download PDF

2014_tamu_smu_0920_long

Disclaimer 1: The prediction formula is an algorithm that I created which takes into account yardage offense and defense, how a team has performed relative to its direct competition, injuries, red zone scoring, home/away/neutral, turnover margin, average points scored and allowed, and a multitude of other factors that are all represented on the above "Foundation of Facts". I have been tweaking the formula for 4 years, but nonetheless I have not found a way to accurately predict the outcome of each game because (as my quote above implies) there are simply TOO many variables to account for and too much uncertainty in each game. However, it is fun to include the objective, stat-based, and numbers-only prediction for a conversation piece. (Besides, if my formula was really that accurate I would horde it to myself and be a multi-millionaire like alternate-Biff in the movie Back to the Future 2)


Disclaimer 2: I take no responsibility if you attempt to use this prediction for betting; unless you win - in which case I demand a 10% gratuity. But seriously, if you have a gambling problem and use this to bet, and lose... do not hold me responsible and seek help to beat your addiction.


NOTABLES

  1. The SMU Mustangs are ranked in the bottom 25 in 33 of 53 team categories that I track.
  2. The SMU Mustangs best quarter is a quarter in which they have not scored any points, but have remarkably limited their opponents to only 13 points.
  3. The Aggies scored 38 points on Rice and only had the ball for 16:46.
  4. Deion Sanders, Jr. has returned 12 kickoffs for 199 yards averaging 16.6 per return.  One of those returns was a 58 yarder, meaning the average of the other 11 was 10.8 yards per return – YIKES!
  5. SMU has no kicking statistics.  They have not attempted a Field Goal or Extra Point yet this season.
  6. SMU’s punter returner, Cedric Lancaster, averages (-4.3) yards per return… AVERAGES MINUS RETURN YARDAGE.
  7. Mustang RB Prescott Line is their 2nd leading rusher with a long of 11.  He averages 9 yards per game.  Meaning he has 3 runs besides his 11-yarder that have gone for 7 yards cumulative.
  8. Kenny Hill is in the Top 5 in the country in the following categories: Passing Yards, Passing Touchdowns, Fewest interceptions.  In fact, Kenny is 1 of 27 QBs who has yet to throw his first interception in 2014. Among those 27 QBs, he has the most attempts and completions.  Only 11 QBs with 0 interceptions have participated in 3 games already this season.
  9. Myles Garrett needs 2.5 sacks to tie Jadaveon Clowney’s SEC Freshman Sack Record; SMU allows 6.5 sacks per game.


GUT FEELING

The Aggies will win big, and the Mustangs will finally put up some kicking stats – 1 of 2 on field goals.

Aggies 59 – SMU 3 […and Baylor fans talking tons of shit]


LOOK AHEAD

Arkansas (2-1) most recently beat the Fightin’ Kingsburys of Texas Tech 49-28.  They are currently ranked 119th in Passing Offense, but 3rd in Rushing Offense.  This shows also in their number of plays per game: 45 rushing attempts to 19 passing attempts per game, for a whopping 64 plays per game.  Look for the Razorbacks to try and slow things down against Texas A&M Beliema-style.  And also look for them to get whooped like they did against Auburn in Game 1 – roughly 45 to 21-ish.