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Stat Simulation Game 13: Liberty Bowl

Analyzing how the WVU Mountaineers (7-5, 5-4) stack up against the Fightin’ Texas Aggies (7-5, 3-5) in the Bowl Edition Stat Simulation...

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

I have never seen two teams mirror each other so closely...  Both teams feature good offenses, and iffy defenses.  Our Quarter-by-Quarter scoring is virtually a deadlock for how our games track both offensively and defensively.  Both teams are starting QBs who were not selected as starters at the beginning of the season.

I am going to be honest and say I don't have a good feeling about this game.  I know the Aggie fanbase has been lulled into a bit of amnesia regarding our team with the distractions that have transpired in the last 30 days: 1) Mark Snyder fired; 2) Malik Jefferson to t.u.; 3) WR Coach Beaty to Kansas as HC; 4) BJ Anderson let go; 5) Dave Christensen hired for OL; 6) Muschamp? Foster? Chavis? Durkin? ... Please not Gibbs! Ahhhhh!!!!!  For instance you've probably forgotten that we held LSU to 107 yards of passing... but allowed 385 yards of rushing to a Zone Read QB.  You may have forgotten that we've lost 5 of the last 7 games.

Vegas has Texas A&M as +1.5 (dogs); and I think once you see the predictions / formula results below; you will agree that this game is just too close to call, which leaves me with a pessimistic outlook on the game (BAS? Maybe...)


Before you skip to the analysis, please let me first explain the scope, drawbacks, and purpose of this chart. Once you're familiar with this information, you can happily skip ahead in the future. But I insist that you READ THIS NOW before you proceed.

Key to the chart below:

Blue Metric = Top 25 in the Nation

Red Metric = Bottom 25 in the nation

Advantage = One team is more than 20 spots ahead of the other team’s inverse metric in the national ranking; i.e. Texas A&M was ranked 68th in Rush Defense versus SMU’s 98th ranked Rushing Offense; therefore, due to A&M being 30 spots ahead of SMU in that metric's national ranking, they get the "advantage".

2014 Liberty Bowl StatSheet

2014 Liberty Bowl StatSheet

Disclaimer 1: The prediction formula is an algorithm that I created which takes into account yardage offense and defense, how a team has performed relative to its direct competition, injuries, red zone scoring, home/away/neutral, turnover margin, average points scored and allowed, and a multitude of other factors that are all represented on the above "Foundation of Facts". I have been tweaking the formula for 4 years, but nonetheless I have not found a way to accurately predict the outcome of each game because (as my quote above implies) there are simply TOO many variables to account for and too much uncertainty in each game. However, it is fun to include the objective, stat-based, and numbers-only prediction for a conversation piece. (Besides, if my formula was really that accurate I would horde it to myself and be a multi-millionaire like alternate-Biff in the movie Back to the Future 2)

Disclaimer 2: I take no responsibility if you attempt to use this prediction for betting; unless you win - in which case I demand a 10% gratuity. But seriously, if you have a gambling problem and use this to bet, and lose... do not hold me responsible and seek help to beat your addiction.


The Aggies and Mountaineers trade scores in the first half and WVU comes into halftime  with a 24-21 lead.  The Aggies take the lead back in the 3rd.  WVU Scores quickly in the 4th to take back the lead once again, but Kyle Allen drives the length of the field in the closing 2 minutes of the game to put A&M over for the Victory.

38-37 Aggies