A Statistical Review of Texas A&M's Offense and Defense

For the charts below, Blue is Good and Red is Bad.

The top chart compares Texas A&M's defense to the opponents' offenses. The bottom chart compares the Aggie offense to opponents' defenses.

The first section on the far left shows each Aggie opponent (except Div II Lamar) and that team's season average in each of 4 main categories for offense and defense: 1) Total Offense/Defense; 2) Passing Offense/Defense; 3) Rushing Offense/Defense; 4) Scoring Offense/Defense.

The next section in the middle shows actual game results from matchup between Texas A&M and the opponent. Blue highlighting indicates that A&M's offense or defense outperformed that team's season average. For example, if the Aggies held an opponent below their season average in rushing by 10% or more (e.g., vs. South Carolina), that category will be blue. If A&M allowed at least 10% more than an opponents' season average, that category will be red. The opposite is true for the offense on the bottom chart, to keep the coloring consistent such that blue is a good result and red is bad result. Items in gray are in the +/- 10% range.

The last section on the far right simply shows the actual difference (Δ) in yardage gained or allowed versus the opponent's average and the percentage above or below that average.

(Click here to popout larger image of chart below)

These charts quantify what I already believe about Texas A&M's coordinators this season.

Jake Spavital has produced a mediocre offense. The Aggie offense surprisingly outperformed Mississippi State and Ole Miss' season averages, but accumulated a lot of yardage after these teams had pulled their starters by the middle of the 3rd quarter. A&M severely underperformed on offense versus Alabama and ULM. Offensive coaching and playcalling do not have me sold on Spavital's abilities.

On defense, I sometimes can't tell what we're trying to achieve. Our players have seemingly regressed throughout the season, and it has taken an infusion of talented freshmen to the Aggie defense look even serviceable. When those freshmen get injured, we have no depth. The Aggies have allowed 6 teams to gain more than 450 yards which is not acceptable. The Aggies allowed a Missouri team that averages 340 yards of offense (after the A&M game) to put up 312 yards in ONE QUARTER and surpass their average offensive production by 65% (231 yards above their season average).

What now?

Look out for LSU: They don't have Mizzou's pass rush, but otherwise they are a clone of them statistically on defense.

LSU Passing Off: 170 ypg, Rushing Off: 204 ypg, Scoring Off: 28 ppg

Extrapolating Forward: 170 +4% = 177 yards passing for LSU; 204 +19% = 243 yards rushing for LSU (420 total yards to LSU)

LSU Passing Def: 164 ypg; Rushing Def: 149 ypg; Scoring Def: 16 ppg

Extrapolating Forward: 164 +37% = 225 yards passing for A&M; 149 -10% = 135 yards rushing for A&M (360 total yards to TAMU).

That's not promising for the Thanksgiving matchup, but maybe the Aggies will bring more to the table next week.