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Stat Simulation Game 11: Texas A&M vs Mizzou

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Analyzing how the Mizzou Tigers (7-2, 4-1) stack up against the Fightin’ Texas Aggies (7-3, 3-3) in this week's Stat Simulation...

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

It is unlawful to throw hard objects by hand in Missouri.  Someone needs to tell Maty Mauk that a football is not very hard, and he's allowed to throw it more each game (but please refrain from doing so until after Saturday).

The Aggies still boast the best passing attack in the conference and one of the more prolific scoring offenses despite getting skunked by Alabama and limited in passing by ULM in Kyle Allen's first start.  Mizzou brings the pressure with 3.2 sacks and 7.6 TFLs per game.  They also have stolen 10 interceptions, but the two players who lead Missouri in INTs will be suspended for at least part of the game (Webb 1/2 Game for Targetting; Penton off-field issues).  Mizzou fumbles the least amount in the country - with 5 fumbles, losing only 1 all year.

Marcus Murphy is a VERY dangerous return man, boasting 1 PR TD and 2 KR TDs; on the other hand the Aggies have the conferences best KR defense.  Bertolet and Kaser both would do well to just kick it away from Mr. Murphy, or Murphy's Law might bite A&M in the ass this game.

On the other side of the ball, each team is simply abysmal - the Aggies doing nothing on defense except riding Myles Garrett to high sack numbers.  Missouri rated as one of the worst offenses in NCAA. This will definitely be a battle of inconsistent, but high-powered A&M Offense versus quietly competent Mizzou defense - i.e. a potentially low scoring affair.

Luckily for the Ags, the game is at home in front of the 12th Man - but how effective has homefield advantage been for Kevin Sumlin the last 3 years? Of Sumlin's 9 losses in the last 2-3/4 years, 5 have been at Kyle Field.  However, Missouri is currently unranked, and Sumlin has NEVER lost to an unranked opponent as the Aggies head coach.

Before you skip to the analysis, please let me first explain the scope, drawbacks, and purpose of this chart. Once you're familiar with this information, you can happily skip ahead in the future. But I insist that you READ THIS NOW before you proceed.

Key to the chart below:
Blue Metric = Top 25 in the Nation
Red Metric = Bottom 25 in the nation
Advantage = One team is more than 20 spots ahead of the other team’s inverse metric in the national ranking; i.e. Texas A&M was ranked 68th in Rush Defense versus SMU’s 98th ranked Rushing Offense; therefore, due to A&M being 30 spots ahead of SMU in that metric's national ranking, they get the "advantage".

2014 Mizzou Stats

Disclaimer 1: The prediction formula is an algorithm that I created which takes into account yardage offense and defense, how a team has performed relative to its direct competition, injuries, red zone scoring, home/away/neutral, turnover margin, average points scored and allowed, and a multitude of other factors that are all represented on the above "Foundation of Facts". I have been tweaking the formula for 4 years, but nonetheless I have not found a way to accurately predict the outcome of each game because (as my quote above implies) there are simply TOO many variables to account for and too much uncertainty in each game. However, it is fun to include the objective, stat-based, and numbers-only prediction for a conversation piece. (Besides, if my formula was really that accurate I would horde it to myself and be a multi-millionaire like alternate-Biff in the movie Back to the Future 2)

Disclaimer 2: I take no responsibility if you attempt to use this prediction for betting; unless you win - in which case I demand a 10% gratuity. But seriously, if you have a gambling problem and use this to bet, and lose... do not hold me responsible and seek help to beat your addiction.

GUT FEELING

(Thanks for the save, editors... I literally snapped up out of bed about 15 minutes ago and said, "Shit, I forgot to update my gut feeling!")

The Missouri defense surprises and their special teams shine, but it's the Aggies that overcome the Tigers at home for a slight victory of 30-28.  CuppyCup gets so drunk at the GBH Tailgate that he wakes up in Vegas, married to Missouri Alum Hope Driskill.

LOOK AHEAD

Bye week! LSU RB Kenny Hilliard out for the season...