clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

GBH Gamblin' Guide: Week Two

New, 15 comments

Off to a hot start in week one, a look at the more appealing games in week two.

Grant Halverson

Let's cut to the chase: Out of the gate we generated a nice profit and look to build on that in week two.

WEEK ONE REVIEW

We went 4-1 on our Weekly Card, seeing a push on UCF -1 vs. PSU become a loss with a FG as time expired. Special shout out to cover machine Urban Meyer who called his last offensive possession, with the Buckeyes down 10, like a man who knew the spread was 16.5. All three of our underdog plays - A&M, UTSA, and Cal - not only covered but won outright. Which once again drives home a point: If you like an underdog, a side bet on the moneyline is often worth it. And while all of our dogs were 10+ points, here's a fun fact on tighter spreads: When a dog of 7 points or less covers in college football, they win outright 80% of the time.

In Bonus Bets, we won our teaser of UGA and LSU (Thanks for the insanity, Les Miles!), while taking losses due to Washington's atrocious backup QB and SMU and Baylor showcasing shockingly low voltage offensive attacks. June Jones looks like a man starring in a college football themed remake of Weekend At Bernie's.

All told, we cleared 167 GBHs on the extended opening weekend. Not bad.

CURRENT BANKROLL: 10,167 GBHs.

THE WEEKLY CARD

It's a bit of a thin lineup this weekend, with no shortage of cupcake fueled blowouts. Nevertheless a handful of games present good opportunities

THE GAME: BYU -1 at Texas

This is where we kick ourselves for not getting our money down earlier. We loved BYU as 3.5 point underdogs. We loved them as 1 point underdogs. Then the market wised up and realized "Texas has no starting quarterback, no credible wide receiver threats, and their offensive line has a whopping four starts. Combined." Yes, Texas has a competent, somewhat talented defense. On the first string. There's no depth. If BYU doesn't turn the ball over and Taysom Football can string together a few first downs with the Cougars' up tempo offense, expect a large flock of boo birds to make an appearance in Austin.

THE BET: BYU -1, risking 77 GBHs to win 70

THE GAME: Michigan State +12 at Oregon

ESPN Gameday audience in PJs in Euegene. Marcus Mariota and company on the fast track of Autzen, where 12 points for the home team is like 4 for mortal teams. Michigan State is getting the public love here, and it's easy to see why: Sparty is basking in the glow of their Rose Bowl win against a slower, B1G-esque Stanford team and the associated reputation of an impenetrable defense. Yet that Sparty D lost more than half of its starters and hasn't seen anything resembling Oregon's O. Quack Attack rolls at home.

THE BET: Oregon -12, risking 77 GBHs to win 70

THE GAME: USC +3 at Stanford

A huge early season game in the PAC12. Believe it or not, Stanford is the popular choice here, while the line has trended in USC's favor. The Trojans showcased a masterful offense last week, dicing up Fresno State and running over a hundred plays from scrimmage. Amazing what competent coaching can do, huh? Big picture, everyone seems to forget that a healthy USC team is still among the most talented in the country. The crowd will be more neutral than home field for Stanford, and USC's speed will be the difference.

THE BET: USC +3, risking 77 GBHs to win 70

THE GAME: Mizzou -4 at Toledo

Ooooh boy... The gambling public is romancing Mizzou heavily, because they're a name team with a fancy ranking by their name and SEC patches on their jerseys, despite not exactly blowing the doors off South Dakota State in week one. The line has dropped from 6.5 to as low as 3.5 in spots. That's classic "reverse line movement" for a September out-of-conference game. Shop for the best number you can find, which should be +4, and follow the smart money by taking the home underdog.

THE BET: Toledo +4, risking 77 GBHs to win 70

THE GAME: Virginia Tech +11 at Ohio State

Everyone saw Ohio State sweat against the unconventional Navy option attack and thinks tOSU is vulnerable, but did ya know VaTech also started a new QB and struggled to score against something called a "William & Mary"? Like Michigan State, the Hokies are a public road underdog, and that should set off alarm bells. Faced with a more conventional offense the Buckeye D will take care of business in Columbus. Meyer's group wins by double digits.

THE BET: Ohio State -11, risking 77 GBHs to win 70

BONUS BETS

Boise St -10 vs Colorado State (risking 33 GBHs to win 30) Smurf Turf magic, with the overvalued Rams making the trip to face the undervalued Broncos.

ECU at South Carolina OVER 64 (risking 33 GBHs to win 30) How does Head Ball Coach make amends for giving up 50 at home? By scoring 50 at home.

Texas Tech at UTEP OVER 64.5 (risking 33 GBHs to win 30) Out in the west Texas town of El Paso, I fell in love with four verticals.

Have plays that caught your eye on this week's board? Share 'em in the comments! Good luck and stay safe out there!