GBH Gamblin' Guide: Week Four

Things I've learned from watching Bull Durham too many times: Don't eff with a streak. So I may or may not be wearing a, shall we say, familiar pair of underwear. Rules are rules, and the gambling gods are nothing if not a fickle bunch.

WEEK THREE REVIEW

In a repeat of week two, we went 3-2 on our main card. Iowa's halftime was sponsored by Xanax, with the Haweyes blowing an 11 point lead to not only fail to cover the 11.5, but lose the game. Exceedingly satisfying to see a favorite fail to cover and lose outright, so they share your pain. Elsewhere, Maryland fell just short against Holgo's bunch after a big rally, but another terrible B1G team - Rutgers - came through and squeaked out a half point cover. Two of the other dogs we liked - South Carolina and Virginia - not only covered but won outright. As always, hope you showed the moneyline some love.

Bonus bets continue to be a millstone around our necks, as we went 1-2. Again. Kevin Sumlin left the points machine back at the hotel, and UCLA had to finagle a narrow win with a Neuheisel under center. At least Stoops got things right by covering by a field goal against UT. Thanks, Bob.

Once again, a narrow 20 GBH gain. Paid for a nice lunch.

CURRENT BANKROLL: 10,207 GBHs

THE WEEKLY CARD

Not going to lie, this weekend is a rather horrible slate, especially after slacking and missing out on KSU last night. C'est la vie. Nevertheless we'll hunt for value and spots.

THE GAME Indiana +14 at Mizzou

Mizzou insists on racking up covers fueled by turnovers. That's not sustainable. Yardage last weekend against UCF was nearly equal but the Knights turned it over four times. Indiana is coming off a shootout loss to Dino Babers' Bowling Green (running Art Briles' offense). It's the bottom feeder of the B1G against a contender for the SEC east, and the Tigers are already thinking about next weekend's pivotal contest with South Carolina.  Reverse line movement here, with the public hitting Mizzou hard and the line dropping from 17. Indiana can and will run the ball well. Avoid turnovers and the Hoosiers keep it respectable.

THE BET Indiana +14, risking 77 GBHs to win 70

THE GAME Oklahoma -8 at WVU

Dana Holgorsen getting more than a touchdown at home? Ok. Another reverse line movement contest. The public loves the Sooners, having started the season off with a 3-0 against the spread mark. But line dropped from 11 to as low as 7 at various outlets. Morgantown is a long road trip for the other Big XII schools, and it's the first time the Sooners have played away from Norman this season. Clint Trickett (future in NASCAR with that name) and company keep it close, if not pull the outright upset. Chug that moonshine and burn those couches, friends in the coal industry.

THE BET WVU +8, risking 77 GBHs to win 70

THE GAME Mississippi State +9.5 at LSU

LSU is fresh off shutouts of two cupcakes. And Mississippi State has looked shaky at times against lesser competition. Most notably UAB. Football is about matchups, however, and on Saturday night matchups favor MSU (while talent and voodoo favor LSU, as usual). LSU's passing game needs work, and to beat the Bulldogs you have to be able to throw the ball. On the other side, Dak Prescott leads a balanced attack that should keep Chavis' defense off balance a bit and post a few scores. LSU wins by doing weird things, because Les Miles is involved. But it's a single digit margin.

THE BET Mississippi State +9.5, risking 77 GBHs to win 70

THE GAME Florida +14 at Alabama

Kentucky caught Florida in a bit of a lookahead spot last week, and it nearly cost the Gators. But perhaps more importantly, Bama hasn't looked sharp on both sides of the ball in any game this season. And then there's the matchup of Muschamp's D vs. Kiffin's O. Keep an eye on Bama's OL and their ability to mitigate pressure on the QB. Sure, Florida's offense may still be a work in progress (to use the most cliche of phrases), but we love Coach Boom to keep the Tide's offense largely under wraps. Getting a tad more than two full TDs, take the Gators.

THE BET Florida +14.5, risking 77 GBHs to win 70

THE GAME Ball State +14 at Toledo

The impression of Ball State is of a team that was nearly as good as Iowa, despite being dominated by the Hawkeyes. On the flip side, Toledo posted yardage totals that were nearly on par with Mizzou and Cincinnati in big stage contests only to fall by 17+ in each. The one piece of chalk we like this week is at home, has a crisp, imaginative offense, and is facing an overmatched opponent that's a step down from their previous competition. Go Rockets.

THE BET Toledo -14, risking 77 GBHs to win 70

BONUS BETS

Cal at Arizona OVER 70 (risking 33 GBHs to win 30) Might be wise to fade our plays on totals, but take the under in Tucson at your own risk.

Texas A&M +34 at SMU (risking 33 GBHs to win 30) When TexAgs posters are loading up their online accounts to go all in on the Ags, that's our cue to go the other way.

Rice -6.5 vs. ODU (risking 33 GBHs to win 30) We think the hooters look real and spectacular.

Good luck to all and please use the comments section to fill us in on who you like this weekend!