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GBH Gamblin' Guide: Week Three

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Two winning weeks to kick off the season. Can we make it three?

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome back, loyal readers. Time for our weekly look at some of the juiciest college football action from a gambler's perspective.

WEEK TWO REVIEW

We eked out a profit, going 3-2 on our main plays and a more disappointing 1-2 on our bonus bets. Oregon and Marcus Mariota took care of business at home, USC posted an outright win at Stanford (as the Cardinal generated a whopping 10 points on 6 trips inside the USC 25!), and BYU demolished texas in Austin. On the downside, Ohio State disappointed in Columbus, losing outright, and while Toledo was able to move the ball effectively on Mizzou, the Rockets just couldn't finish drives and keep pace with the Tigers.

Both our bonus bets totals stayed under, with A&M, Clemson, and Arkansas hogging all the points last weekend, but Boise did handle Colorado State on our behalf.

Breaking out our trusty abacus, we netted 20 GBHs. But a winning weekend is always better than a losing one, no matter how ya add it up.

CURRENT BANKROLL: 10,187 GBHs

THE WEEKLY CARD

We're going darn near full contrarian this week, as Joe Sixpack thinks he's got it all figured out after two weeks of action.

THE GAME Iowa State +11.5 at Iowa

Everyone looked at the final scores last weekend, noting that KSU needed a late TD to top Iowa State and Iowa requiring a minor miracle to edge Ball State. But did anyone look at the underlying yardage figures? Iowa outgained Ball State by more than a 2:1 margin. And other than a spurt in the second quarter, KSU thoroughly dominated the Cyclones. In short, both outcomes were something of statistical aberrations. But that's to our benefit, as Iowa is barely a double digit favorite at home over their in-state rivals. Enjoy cruising to your claim of the hideous CyHawk trophy, Kirk Ferentz and company.

THE BET Iowa -11.5, risking 77 GBHs to win 70.

THE GAME West Virginia +3 at Maryland

The public remembers West Virginia hanging tough against a sloppy Alabama team in the opening week and as such they're all over the Mountaineers against a Maryland team perceived as bad. But despite 70%+ of the bets coming in against the Terps, the line has edged in the turtles' favor. At home. In something of a border rivalry game. We like the state with the astronomically higher literacy rate.

THE BET Maryland -3, risking 77 GBHs to win 70.

THE GAME Penn State -3.5 at Rutgers

(Jim Delany would like to remind you that this is a B1G football game between undefeated teams!) We could almost copy and paste the writeup for the West Virginia at Maryland game. Same patterns, with the public recalling Penn State's hard fought win over UCF in Ireland and Rutgers not having much of a brand. Plus, ya know, Penn State is riding high with the sanctions lifted! They're motivated! Alas, 2/3 of the action on the Nittany Lions, with the line dropping from 3.5 to 3 in spots, though you should be able to find it at 3.5. With that curious action in play we have to think the wise guys in Jersey know something. We'll follow Tony Soprano's opinion.

THE BET Rutgers +3.5, risking 77 GBHs to win 70.

THE GAME Louisville -7 at Virginia

Lather, rinse, repeat. Your average Joe's impression of Louisville was a comfortable dispatching of Miami at home on Labor Day. And Virginia was last spotted valiantly losing to UCLA by single digits even though they yielded 21 points directly from turnovers. More than 70% of the public loves the road favorite Cardinals, and a spread that opened as high as 10 in certain venues has plummeted. Hmmm. Consider this: If Virginia does a better job holding on to the football in week one, what's the story this week? It's a PK, if not Virginia getting points. Don't overreact to turnover fortunes. And don't take road favorites on their first road trips of the season.

THE BET Virginia +6.5, risking 77 GBHs to win 70

THE GAME Georgia -6.5 at South Carolina

Let's get this straight: South Carolina had won 19 straight home games going into this season. South Carolina had a horrible matchup in week one against A&M, with a green secondary going up against A&M's monstrous WR corps. And, oh yea, South Carolina is coached by some guy named Steve Spurrier. So now everyone and their brother is predicting a Dawg romp in Columbia? Sure. Okay. UGA was, pardon the pun, in a dog fight with inexperienced Clemson into the fourth quarter at home before pulling away late on the shoulders of Todd Gurley. Moreover, Georgia's QB and WRs are untested, and the Gamecock D will fare much better facing a more traditional run-first offense. Give us the Head Ball Coach as a home underdog.

THE BET South Carolina +6.5, risking 77 GBHs to win 70

BONUS BETS

Rice at A&M OVER 71 (risking 33 GBHs to win 30) Either A&M is scoring 50+ and giving up 20+, or scoring 60+ and giving up 10+.

OU -20.5 vs UT (risking 33 GBHs to win 30) Stoops at home with a chance to make a "statement" against an SEC opponent? Yup.

UCLA -7.5 vs t.u. (risking 33 GBHs to win 30) Thursday night football saw LaTech truck UNT and Houston hang around at BYU. Yes, texas really is that bad.

As always, let's talk Vegas in the comments and best of luck to my fellow degenerates this weekend!