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Daily Bull 09.30.15 - The Catastrophic Decline Of The Aggie Offense

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Aggie football (and as it turns out probably the universe, too) will end this week. Forever. Jake Spavital killed them.

You are here.
You are here.

To be on the safe side you should probably say goodbye to your loved ones by Friday afternoon at the latest.

Anyone with Twitter - the internet's bullhorn - knows that the Texas A&M offense is in decline. And despite what the slave to #BigSpav would tell you, this decline is the direct fault of Jake Spavital. Four games into the season we now have very real data demonstrating that under Spav's oversight this season the Aggies have run fewer plays from scrimmage each week than the previous week.

WT game log

Well that seems innocuous enough.

But how can we use this data to project future performance? Well looking from Week 1 to Week 2, we see a decline of 2 plays. The next week is a decline of two plays again. And then the next week... twenty-eight fewer plays! That's no good!

Here at #WednesdayTrendsday we aren't about finding the best model to fit a a set of numbers. We are just looking for any model to fit a set of numbers. In this case, what if we modeled the change in plays each week as a modified, inverted Fibonacci sequence? For any week n, the change in the number of plays run follows this sequence:

WT fibonacci

By seeding the first two entries as Week 1 = 0 and Week 2 = -2, we then find that the change in plays run for Week 3 is -2 + 13 * 0 = -2 and for Week 4 is -2 + 13 * -2 = -28. We are in business!

Of course, there's some bad news.

150930 WT

Yes, once again mathematics is a cruel mistress, as she has undeniably proven that this weekend the Aggies will run -6 plays against Mississippi State. But let's not be silly! Of course a team cannot run negative plays, that is just nonsense. Instead we must assume that they will run zero plays. Presumably MSU will win the opening toss, perform a successful onside kick, drive the field and score, and then repeat the process for the duration of the game. "Make it take it" style football, if you will.

But the next week the Ags will again be subject to the same fate running even less plays - if we were to even entertain such a preposterous idea! No, of course they will just run zero plays week in and week out.

You have seen the last Aggie offensive snap of the season. At least it was a good one.

BUT WAIT

Didn't... didn't last week... didn't we prove beyond the shadow of a doubt the mathematical fact that Kyle Allen would accrue passing yardage this season hitherto unseen in the annals of college - nor any - football? How can the incontrovertible laws of math stand in direct opposition to one another? Next week Kyle Allen will gain passing yards but will not throw a pass.

...

It seems that we are doomed. On Saturday the natural laws of the universe will repeal themselves. Gravity will point both up and down at the same time. Left will become forward. Sideways will become Tuesday. The Longhorns will experience an evenly refereed game. The very forces that hold the nucleus of every atom in the galaxy will cease to exist.

What is will not be.

Try to have a good week folks. The Tailgate will be along soon... you know, if that helps or anything. I guess.