clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Predicting Texas A&M's next incoming QB transfer using geographical trends

It's Wednesday Trendsday...sort of!

Chuck gave me the keys to this dang thing but I don't know much math so hang tight.


#wellactually disclaimer: Oklahoma State was used for Hubenak (we know he stopped at Blinn afterward) because it was easier and looked cooler on the map. Honestly if you're #wellactuallying on this website we don't know what to tell you. You've made a misstep somewhere.

Anyway, all facts presented here are irrefutable, etc.

SURPRISE! There was QB stuff in the news this week, as Trevor Knight was named the starter coming out of spring practice. The drama surrounding the most visible position in football is long and storied, and you can catch up on it here. But we're ready to look to the future. We've got two guys who arrived here via very circuitous paths trying to make up for the SIX who left Texas A&M to ply their trade at various locales around the Big 12 and beyond.

You can use math/science for anything, right? That's what we thought. Why not take the journeys of these eight QBs and wring some numbers out of them to try to project where the next incoming transfer will originate? Why not, indeed. This is offseason, after all, and manipulating vaguely-relevant data to fit a pre-conceived narrative is a tradition as old as time itself. We are not above such an exercise.


Arriving QBs

Player Origin Mileage
Jake Hubenak Oklahoma State 435.8 miles
Trevor Knight Oklahoma 357.1 miles

That's a total of 792.9 miles between the two incoming transfers for a QBM (QB Mileage) factor of 396.45 per player.


Departing QBs

Player Destination Mileage
Jameill Showers UTEP 683 miles
Matt Davis SMU 184 miles
Matt Joeckel TCU 186 miles
Kenny Hill TCU 186 miles
Kyle Allen Houston 99.8 miles
Kyler Murray Oklahoma 357.1 miles

That's a total of 1,695.9 between the six outgoing transfers for a QBM of 282.65 per player.


QBM diff: 396.45 - 282.65 = 113.8

That's a mileage difference of 113.8 per player. Therefore, the next four transfers will roughly average that distance in transfer miles in order to attain a net zero, assuming the number of departing QBs remains at 0. Why wouldn't we assume such a thing? Everything is better now it's fine everything's fine. Thousands of man-hours of calculations have been logged by Internet Nobel Laureate mathematicians toiling in similar studies over the past decades and nothing has ever deviated from the expected. In a perfect world, absolute zero is the baseline goal for every college football fan.

So anyway, that's the magic number: 113.8 miles.



Pretty damn close but do they even have 4 QBs? Doesn't seem like it. Pass.


Taking another approach, we could just go for it all and blow our transfer mileage differential wad in one shot, meaning we'd need to land one huge transfer from a school 455.2 miles away. It's all made super-easy with this handy radius map tool thing.

Let us cast our net:




Hmm. Start walking down 278, Chad Kelly. Nobody said you couldn't transfer again. Hugh Freeze can bend those conference transfer rules for you. Hugh Freeze can do whatever he wants.