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Arnold Against The Spread Szn Two: Week 4

Crashing back to Earth in spectacular fashion

NCAA Football: Ohio State at Penn State Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

The false hope of Week 3 was extinguished in dramatic fashion as we went 1-6 over the course of the weekend. Our overall record for 2023 is now 11-17. Here’s to hoping we get a few more back in the win column for this season. As always, the odds* for the below picks come courtesy of our friends at DraftKings. This blog does not constitute financial advice.

Florida State -2.5 at Clemson

Boston College vs Florida State University Set Number: X164430

Florida State and Mike Norvell appear poised to take the ACC throne from Clemson. Saturday represents a massive opportunity for the Seminoles to stake their claim. The Tigers are on the ropes after an early loss to Duke. They’ve rebounded with wins against Charleston Southern and FAU but the vulnerability around this Clemson program hasn’t been at this level for a while. I think FSU wins by at least a field goal and likely more in spite of their poor performance against Boston College. Take the Noles to cover.

SMU at TCU over 64

TCU v Houston Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images

While the Horned Frogs haven’t allowed more than 13 points since their shocking loss to Colorado to open the season, the Iron Skillet feels like one of those contests that always ends up high-scoring. SMU’s defense struggled against their first Big 12 test in Oklahoma but I think the Mustangs will fare better against a TCU defense that has some obvious holes. TCU likely puts up plenty of points on their end as well. Take the over.

Colorado at Oregon over 71.5

NCAA Football: Colorado State at Colorado Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Every ounce of wit in my head is screaming at me that 71.5 points is way too many and I need to take the under here. Unfortunately, I am not going to listen. Oregon and Colorado both have the ability to score a ton of points. And both offenses will come Saturday. Hammer the ridiculous over with me and pray for a plethora of points.

Oregon State at Washington State under 56

NCAA Football: San Diego State at Oregon State Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

In contrast to the last two contests mentioned, I think the Oregon State defense will manage to keep this meeting a low-scoring contest. The Beavers are one of the dark horses of the PAC 12 this year and hope to surprise some teams later this season. Meanwhile, Washington State has inserted themselves into the rankings after a big win over Wisconsin. This should be a fun matchup, but as mentioned above the Oregon State defense is the key factor. I’m taking the under here.

Ohio State -3.5 at Notre Dame

Syndication: Notre Dame Insider Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Buckeyes looked a little shaky to start the season against Indiana but visit the Hoosier State again after a big 63-10 victory over Western Kentucky. This time Ohio State is paired up with Notre Dame. The Irish still have some questions to answer but they look to be on the cusp of elite in 2023. With that being said, I think Ohio State will get the victory over Notre Dame and cover in what should be one of the best games of the week.

Iowa at Penn State under 40.5

NCAA Football: Penn State at Illinois Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Finally, the game I am most excited about for this weekend is the game I’m going to be attending. I’m crossing a massive item off my bucket list as I head up to Happy Valley to watch the Nittany Lions take on the Iowa Hawkeyes in the White Out Game. While the Penn State offense is improved from last season, Iowa’s defense is still elite and rain is possible in the forecast. I’m taking the under in this one.

Upset Special: Minnesota at Northwestern +350

NCAA Football: Northwestern at Duke Jaylynn Nash-USA TODAY Sports

I don’t think Northwestern has a particularly good squad in 2023, but I don’t think Minnesota has shown much either. With the Wildcats at home and at a pretty good +350 value, I think there are worse places to sprinkle a little money line. Northwestern looked good in their only other home game so far this season, maybe they find a bit more magic at Ryan Field on Saturday.

Do any non-Texas A&M games intrigue you in Week 4? Let us know in the comments!

*Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See for details.