Arnold Against The Spread Szn Two: Week 3

Above .500 for a week???? Am I dreaming?

By Jay Arnold Sep 12, 2023, 2:38pm CDT

In a shocking turn of events, the AATS picks went exceptionally well in Week 2. While the Upset Special didn’t hit, our standard bets went 5-2 - a big victory here. We’re still below .500 on the season with a 10-11 but getting over the break-even hump seems within reach. As always, the odds* for the below picks come courtesy of our friends at DraftKings. This blog does not constitute financial advice.

Army at UTSA Under 45.5

NCAA Football: Texas-San Antonio at Houston

Army is in the midst of transitioning from their flexbone offense to the Air Raid but the offense isn’t quite there yet. The Black Knights are still a defensive-minded team and come up against a UTSA squad that hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in 2023. With this in mind, I think the under is a safe bet when Army heads to San Antonio Friday night.

Utah State at Air Force Under 47

I know it’s low-hanging fruit but another service academy game means I’m taking another under. Utah State’s offense is solid but like against Iowa, I think the Aggies struggle to put up points against a stout Air Force defense. Of course, the ball control and clock-burning style of the Air Force also help keep the score down. Hammer the under.

Penn State at Illinois Over 48

The Illinois defense has seen a massive falloff from a unit that won several games for the squad in 2022. Meanwhile, new starting quarterback Drew Allar leads a Penn State offense that feels energized in 2023. I think the Nittany Lions jump on Illinois early and often in this one and with a deficit, the Illini will turn to quarterback Luke Altmeyer to try and catch up. With this in mind, many points will be scored. Take the over.

Florida State -25.5 at Boston College

Not much to say about this one. Boston College may end up being the worst team in the Power 5 this year. Florida State will win by as many points as they choose to. I think that number will end up being more than 25.5. Take Florida State to cover.

Kansas State -4.5 at Missouri

An old Big 12 rivalry gets a refresher in this one. Mizzou will be underdogs at home which shouldn’t come as a surprise. I expect the Wildcats to come out extremely physical and have their way with the Tigers. I’m thinking it’ll be a two-score victory for Kansas State. Take the Wildcats to cover.

South Carolina +27.5 at Georgia

Georgia is undoubtedly the class of the field in the SEC at the moment but 27.5 is a lot of points and I wouldn’t be surprised if South Carolina holds their own early. This feels like one of those games where the Bulldogs sleepwalk a bit but come out on top. If the spread drops a bit, stay away but at +27.5, I like the Gamecocks.

Tennessee -6.5 at Florida

Syndication: The Knoxville News-Sentinel

The Volunteers sputtered a bit against Austin Peay on Saturday. After what I’m sure will be a focused set of practices, expect them to come out with a bit more fire against the Gators. Meanwhile, this Florida squad feels like a team that is still searching for their identity. Take the Vols to win by a touchdown.

Upset Special: Louisville at Indiana +310

I don’t see a ton of upset possibilities from teams at +300 or more so I went with the Hoosiers to pull off the stunner. Indiana’s defense looked good against Ohio State and while the offense needs to improve - I think the defense can give them a chance against Louisville. If they find a spark against the Cardinals, look out. Especially at home in Bloomington.

What games are you most excited about in Week 3?

*Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See http://draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.