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Arnold Against The Spread Szn Two: Week 3

Above .500 for a week???? Am I dreaming?

Syndication: Tallahassee Democrat Alicia Devine/Tallahassee Democrat / USA TODAY NETWORK

In a shocking turn of events, the AATS picks went exceptionally well in Week 2. While the Upset Special didn’t hit, our standard bets went 5-2 - a big victory here. We’re still below .500 on the season with a 10-11 but getting over the break-even hump seems within reach. As always, the odds* for the below picks come courtesy of our friends at DraftKings. This blog does not constitute financial advice.

Army at UTSA Under 45.5

NCAA Football: Texas-San Antonio at Houston Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Army is in the midst of transitioning from their flexbone offense to the Air Raid but the offense isn’t quite there yet. The Black Knights are still a defensive-minded team and come up against a UTSA squad that hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in 2023. With this in mind, I think the under is a safe bet when Army heads to San Antonio Friday night.

Utah State at Air Force Under 47

I know it’s low-hanging fruit but another service academy game means I’m taking another under. Utah State’s offense is solid but like against Iowa, I think the Aggies struggle to put up points against a stout Air Force defense. Of course, the ball control and clock-burning style of the Air Force also help keep the score down. Hammer the under.

Penn State at Illinois Over 48

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The Illinois defense has seen a massive falloff from a unit that won several games for the squad in 2022. Meanwhile, new starting quarterback Drew Allar leads a Penn State offense that feels energized in 2023. I think the Nittany Lions jump on Illinois early and often in this one and with a deficit, the Illini will turn to quarterback Luke Altmeyer to try and catch up. With this in mind, many points will be scored. Take the over.

Florida State -25.5 at Boston College

Not much to say about this one. Boston College may end up being the worst team in the Power 5 this year. Florida State will win by as many points as they choose to. I think that number will end up being more than 25.5. Take Florida State to cover.

Kansas State -4.5 at Missouri

Syndication: The Topeka Capital-Journal Evert Nelson/The Capital-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

An old Big 12 rivalry gets a refresher in this one. Mizzou will be underdogs at home which shouldn’t come as a surprise. I expect the Wildcats to come out extremely physical and have their way with the Tigers. I’m thinking it’ll be a two-score victory for Kansas State. Take the Wildcats to cover.

South Carolina +27.5 at Georgia

Georgia is undoubtedly the class of the field in the SEC at the moment but 27.5 is a lot of points and I wouldn’t be surprised if South Carolina holds their own early. This feels like one of those games where the Bulldogs sleepwalk a bit but come out on top. If the spread drops a bit, stay away but at +27.5, I like the Gamecocks.

Tennessee -6.5 at Florida

Syndication: The Knoxville News-Sentinel Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Volunteers sputtered a bit against Austin Peay on Saturday. After what I’m sure will be a focused set of practices, expect them to come out with a bit more fire against the Gators. Meanwhile, this Florida squad feels like a team that is still searching for their identity. Take the Vols to win by a touchdown.

Upset Special: Louisville at Indiana +310

I don’t see a ton of upset possibilities from teams at +300 or more so I went with the Hoosiers to pull off the stunner. Indiana’s defense looked good against Ohio State and while the offense needs to improve - I think the defense can give them a chance against Louisville. If they find a spark against the Cardinals, look out. Especially at home in Bloomington.

What games are you most excited about in Week 3?

*Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See for details.