Next Update Monday Morning 3/6 (Future Updates in the AM of: Thursday 3/9, Saturday 3/10, Selection Sunday 3/11 – FULL BRACKET REVEAL with locations and matchups)

This is the first update that there has not been an A&M game, so the movement of the Aggies is relatively limited from our last update on Wednesday. That said, pretty much everyone else in the country has played since that update and so, seeding is coming into clearer focus as is what teams around the bubble need to do over the final week of the season. Teams like UConn and Xavier have moved into uncatchable territory, while Rutgers and others have cemented themselves too far behind to have a chance to catch A&M for seeding.

Conference Tournaments have already started for the low major/one bid conferences, but the majority of the games that affect the bubble over the next 48 hours are in the power multi bid leagues. One thing to note is that a “what to watch for” section has been added to help you keep track of what games to watch over the next week.

In terms of tracking the bubble, we start as always by tracking considering the automatic bids that are taken out of the equation, starting with the “Likely one-bid leagues”. These are the leagues that will be 1 bid going to the conference tournament winner, regardless of who that winner is. After accounting for these we have a better picture of how many bids are truly up for grabs.

Likely One-bid leagues

Once teams start getting locked in this section will begin to project the 12 through 16 seed lines.

Conference (Projected Champ, Current Net)

1. A10 (VCU, 66)
2. Atlantic Sun – Championship 3/5 Liberty vs. Kennesaw State – despite a high NET for Liberty, this is a 1 bid league
3. Big Sky (Montana State, 104)
4. Big South (UNC Asheville, 137) – Championship 3/5 TBD vs. TBD
5. Big West – (UC Irvine, 95)
6. America East (Vermont, 121)
7. Horizon (Youngstown State, 113)
8. Ivy – (Yale, 65)
9. MAC - (Kent State, 67)
10. MAAC – (Iona, 62)
11. MEAC (NC Central, 184)
12. MVC (Bradley, 56) – Championship 3/5. Small chance that Bradley or Drake could get an at large look
13. Northeast (Fairleigh Dickinson, 304)
14. Ohio Valley (Morehead State, 219) Championship 3/5 TBD vs. TBD
15. Patriot (Colgate, 100)
16. Southland (Texas A&M Corpus Christi, 189)
17. Southern (Furman, 89)
18. Sun Belt – (Marshall, 78)
19. SWAC (Grambling State, 185)
20. WAC - Sam Houston State (61)

And just like that we are down to 12 conferences battling for 48 spots.

3 conferences (CUSA – FAU, Summit – Oral Roberts, CAA – Charleston) will likely be one bid leagues also but for now all 3 teams are in the field and their auto bid placeholder is counted when we get to their at large profile.

Multi-bid conference/at-large seeds

For the other 9 conferences, they each have multiple teams that as of right now would make the field and get an at large. Their conference leader (in NET) will be counted as their auto bid and will be bolded. Those 8 leagues are (ACC, AAC Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, Big East, MWC, Pac 12, and WCC). Only the AAC is in danger of being a 1 bid league if Houston wins the tournament, but for now Memphis looks solid enough to still get an at large.

So, what about the 48 bids remaining? Let the counting begin…

Teams without any detail after their team’s name are considered locks. Net ranking listed by each bubble team name. Bold teams count as the auto bid placeholder for their respective conference.

$ = Lock

1 seeds

21. $Alabama SEC auto bid - Locked into a 1 seed.

22. $Kansas Big 12 auto bid – Locked into a 1 seed.

23. $Houston AAC auto bid – 90%+ chance at a 1 seed, will lock it up with a win on Sat.

24. $UCLA Pac 12 auto bid – Controls destiny for a 1 seed

2 seeds

25. $Purdue Big Ten auto bid – Possible 1 seed if UCLA falters.

26. $Baylor – Locked in as a 2 seed.

27. $Texas – Locked in as a 2 seed.

28. $Arizona – Controls destiny for a 2 seed.

3 seeds

29. $Kansas State – Possible 2 seed if Arizona falters.

30. $Tennessee -Almost certainly a 3, seeds 2-4 are possible depending on finish.

31. $Marquette Big East auto bid – Controls destiny for a 3 seed.

32. $Gonzaga WCC Auto bid – Controls destiny for a 3 seed.

4 seeds

33. $UConn - Likely locked into a 4 seed unless they win out and Gonzaga doesn’t.

34. $Xavier - Likely locked into a 4 seed unless they win out and Gonzaga doesn’t. Possibility to fall to a 5 seed with a loss on Saturday and poor tournament performance.

--------0% Chance that A&M catches anyone above this line, even by winning out and them losing every game ----------------------

35. $Virginia ACC auto bid (30, 22-6) – they would be vulnerable only if they took a bad loss to Louisville. Win that and they are likely locked into a 4 seed.

Why they are above A&M: Wins OOC over Baylor, Illinois, Michigan, only 1 bad loss at BC.

Why they are vulnerable: Only 1 Quad 1 win in conference on their home floor vs. Duke.

(3/4 Louisville)

36. Indiana (29, 20-10) – Would be tough to catch, but maybe if they lose their next 2 and we win the next 4.

Why they are above A&M: No bad losses, beat UNC OOC

Why they are vulnerable: The predictive metrics don’t love Indiana. They are behind A&M in everything. They aren’t very vulnerable unless they lose their next 2 and we notch multiple victories over Alabama. In that case Indiana has 12 losses to A&Ms 8 and maybe we get the benefit of the doubt.

(3/5 Michigan)

5 seeds

37. $Miami (35, 23-6) – Would be tough to catch, but maybe if they lose their next 2 and we win the next 4.

Why they are above A&M: 9-1 OOC, 7 quad 1 wins, 7-4 on the road, beat Rutgers and Providence OOC, there is a lot to like about this resume in addition to their overall record.

Why they are vulnerable: Well, that loss on their home court their last time out to Florida State is a big reason for concern. Predictive metrics are also an issue for Miami, still, if Miami gets at least 1 more win its hard not to see them getting a 5 seed at worst.

(3/4 Pitt)

38. $St. Mary’s (8, 24-6) – Double bye to WCC Semis so no real opportunity for them to drop much, although with their lack of quality wins we may be able to catch them on our own merits if they drop back at all.

Why they are above A&M: Wins OOC over San Diego State, Oral Roberts, Vanderbilt and in conference over Gonzaga. Challenged themselves OOC and did well. The predictive metrics love SMC

Why they are vulnerable: Lack of top end wins – Just 2-2 vs. quad 1, splitting with Gonzaga, SDSU is a quad 1 and losing to Houston. They also have 2 quad 3 losses. That said, if they don’t go 0-1 in the WCC tournament they are a 5 seed at worst.

(3/6 WCC Semis vs. TBD)

39. $TCU (20, 20-10) – Would be tough to catch, but maybe if they go 0-2 and we win the next 4.

Why they are above A&M: If you are a believer in the eye test it is hard to watch TCU and not think they are a really good team, especially when Mike Miles is healthy. 7 Quad 1 wins and 5-0 vs. Quad 2. Only 1 loss outside of the Quad 1.

Why they are vulnerable: That loss happens to be a quad 4 loss to Northwestern State, whom A&M beat. They also have 10 losses, if they lose their next 2 while A&M adds critical wins, they get a bit closer.

(3/4 @Oklahoma)

40. $San Diego State MWC auto bid (18, 22-6) – them losing to Boise State Tuesday night helps. If they lose to Wyoming to end the year, they are very vulnerable

Why they are above A&M: 22-6 vs. the #7 SOS. Only 1 loss outside of quad 1. Challenging OOC (even though they lost to the top end competition), and then have dominated the MWC.

Why they are vulnerable: They won’t be unless they lose to Wyoming. Lack the real high-end wins. Wins at Utah State and Nevada are great, but it doesn’t top beating Bama twice and Tennessee.

(3/4 Wyoming)

-----Much slimmer margin between the teams below this line and A&M, A&M could easily catch all of these teams just by winning and without getting any additional help----

6 seeds

41. $ Creighton (14, 19-11) If they lose to DePaul on Saturday they will take a huge fall down the seeding.

Why they are above A&M: No bad losses (Nebraska – maybe?), predictive metrics love this team almost as much as SMC. Good win OOC over Arkansas and Texas Tech.

Why they are vulnerable: Lots of reasons you could argue right now for them to be behind A&M. 6 game losing streak. Just 3-7 vs. quad 1. OOC outside of those Ark/Tech wins was brutal. 11 losses already.

(3/4 @DePaul)

42. $Iowa State (28, 17-12) – Reeling lost 6 of 7, we can absolutely catch them by winning out if they don’t turn it around.

Why they are above A&M: No bad losses, 7-0 vs quad 3 and 4. 8 quad 1 wins, including OOC vs. UNC and in the Big 12 over Kansas, Texas, KSU, TCU (x2) and Baylor

Why they are vulnerable: They are in a free fall. 12 losses already. Got blown out at Mizzou. Under .500 in conference and just kicked off the team one of their best players. Hard to see a team that finished 17-14 being a top 7 seed especially when they really didn’t do that much OOC.

(3/4 @Baylor)

43. $Northwestern (45, 20-10) – Slipping fast, lost 3 in a row.

Why they are above A&M: Once again, no bad losses. 10 wins vs. quad 1/2 (9 for A&M).

Why they are vulnerable: Not an impressive OOC other than maybe a win over Liberty. Of note they did lose to Auburn. Outside of a 2 week stretch from Feb 5-19 there isn’t much here on this resume – of course that was a very impressive 5 game winning streak during those 2 weeks. Predictive metrics show NW as solidy in the NIT. Just 4-5 vs. Quad 2.

(3/5 @ Rutgers)

44. $Duke (23, 22-8)

Why they are above A&M: Only 1 loss outside of quad 1 (@Wake Forest – quad 2). Beat Xavier and Iowa OOC.

Why they are vulnerable: Just 2-7 vs. Quad 1 and 9 of their wins are over quad 4.

(3/4 @UNC)

7 seeds

45. $Michigan State (31, 18-11)

Why they are above A&M: 6 wins vs. quad 1, 5 more vs. quad 2. Only 1 bad loss (Notre Dame). Beat Kentucky & Oregon OOC

Why they are vulnerable: Where are the top end wins? Not sure if Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Rutgers really count. Just 5-7 on the road.

(3/4 @Ohio State)

46. $Iowa (33, 19-11)

Why they are above A&M: 13 wins vs. quad 1 and 2 (A&M has 9). Beat Iowa State, Clemson and Seton Hall OOC

Why they are vulnerable: The loss on their home floor to Eastern Illinois is Exhibit A. Just 5-9 away from home is an issue. 5-7 vs. quad 1 is ok but it isn’t top 6 seed good.

(3/5 Nebraska)

47. $Texas A&M (26, 22-8, 14-3) – No update since the last version of Bubble Watch since we did not play. Hopefully the added guide of the good/bad of each resume around us is insightful. The range of seeding is still anywhere from a 5-9, although most of the realistic scenarios would be a 6 or a 7. Enjoy the last game of the season and conference tournament week knowing we will not be sweating on Selection Sunday (3/4 Alabama)

48. $Maryland (25, 20-10)

Why they are behind A&M: Just 3-8 vs. Quad 1. 2-8 on the road.

Why they can catch A&M: Beat Miami OOC, win over Purdue is impressive. No bad losses.

(3/5 @Penn State)

8 seeds

49. $Missouri (49, 22-8)

Why they are behind A&M: Got swept by A&M H2H, just 5-8 vs. Quad 1. Predictive metrics are not good.

Why they can catch A&M: No losses outside of Quad 1. OOC wins over Illinois and Iowa State. Win at Tennessee is huge.

(3/4 @Ole Miss)

50. $Illinois (34, 20-10)

Why they are behind A&M: Just 2-9 vs. Quad 1. 3-6 on the road. Only good road win all year is Wisconsin.

Why they can catch A&M: Beat UCLA and Texas OOC. That’s about as impressive as it gets. Penn State is their only loss outside of quad 1.

(3/5 @Purdue)

51. $Kentucky (21, 20-10)

Why they are behind A&M: 3 questionable losses to Georgia, Vanderbilt & South Carolina. Just 5-7 vs. Quad 1. 10 losses.

Why they can catch A&M: Beat Tennessee twice. Has H2H over A&M, 6-0 vs. Quad 2 is outstanding. Challenging OOC schedule. 11 wins vs. quad 1 and 2. o losses outside of Quad 1. OOC wins over Illinois and Iowa State. Win at Tennessee is huge. Good predictive metrics.

(3/4 @Arkansas)

52. $Providence (39, 21-9)

Why they are behind A&M: Best win OOC was a 1 pt win over Rider, just 3-7 vs. quad 1 and only 3 additional quad 2 wins.

Why they can catch A&M: Only 1 questionable loss (vs. Saint Louis), beat all the top Big East teams (Xavier, UConn, Marquette)

(3/4 Seton Hall)

------The bubble starts here, all teams below this line, except noted exceptions have not yet clinched their bid----

14 at large spots up for grabs

9 seeds

53. Memphis (37, 21-7) – Memphis is starting to rack up the Quad 2 wins, now 7-3 in those games which is really solid. Won all of their “can’t lose” games down the stretch. A loss to Houston really won’t hurt and assuming that’s who they lose to in the AAC tournament I think Memphis is fairly solid to make the AAC a 2-bid league. They aren’t officially a lock yet, but would be with a win against Houston, or if they can advance to the finals of the AAC tournament.

Why they are behind A&M: Just 2 quad 1 wins (A&M, Auburn), getting swept by Tulane wasn’t great.

Why they can catch A&M: 4-1 vs. the SEC including winning the head-to-head over A&M, outside the losses to Tulane, there really isn’t anything negative on the resume, SOS isn’t great given they play in the AAC.

(3/5 Houston)

54. Florida Atlantic CUSA auto bid (15, 24-3) – FAU will clinch their at large bid with a win on Saturday, which will limit how many bad losses will possibly on their resume.

Why they are behind A&M: Just 2 quad 1 wins (Florida, North Texas), neither one of which is a signature win that would get any other team in the tournament.

Why they can catch A&M: I don’t think they realistically can, they have a pretty low ceiling given their lack of top end wins. But they are 25-3, if that stretches to 28-3 that does sound pretty good for an 8 seed. No losses outside of quad 2. Good predictive metrics.

(3/4 @ La Tech)

55. Boise State (27, 22-7) – Rebounds from the loss at San Jose State for a statement win over San Diego State to possibly punch their ticket. Now with wins over SDSU and Utah State to go along with the OOC win over A&M that looks better by the day. If they can win at Utah State to end the year they will leave no doubt, but I kinda feel like they are in even with a loss in that one.

Why they are behind A&M: Just 3-3 vs. quad 1. 2 bad losses (quad 3) of their own. Lacking true high-end wins (beat A&M, San Diego St.)

Why they can catch A&M: won vs. A&M H2H, 7-2 vs. quad 2. Would need help from A&M sliding back to catch us.

(3/4 @Utah State)

56. Arkansas (16, 19-11) – Arkansas will enter their last game of the regular season still yet to clinch their at large bid. Candidly I am much tougher on this resume than just about every other bracketologist. A win to end the year secures their bid. Potentially stays in even with a loss.

Why they are behind A&M: Just 2-8 on the road, lost to LSU and Vanderbilt. 3-8 vs. quad 1. Just 8-9 in the SEC.

Why they can catch A&M: 11-2 OOC with wins over San Diego State, Bradley and Oklahoma. Great predictive metrics.

(3/4 Kentucky)

10 seeds

57. $NC State (41, 22-9) They are a lock (no game on Saturday)

Why they are behind A&M: 2-6 vs. quad 1, best OOC win is over Dayton, just 4-6 on the road.

Why they can catch A&M: No bad losses (Clemson x2, @Syracuse). Realistically they need to with the ACC championship to have any argument to be ahead of A&M.

58. West Virginia (24, 17-13) The win at Iowa State is probably enough to push them over the edge. Which feels a little weird to say for a team that’s just 6-11 in conference. If they lose their next 2 they may be sweating a little bit but they likely have done enough.

Why they are behind A&M: The 13 losses is the main reason

Why they can catch A&M: Solid OOC wins over Pitt and Auburn. Also swept Iowa State and beat TCU. Only 1 loss outside of quad 1 (Texas Tech) Lots more chances during the Big 12 tournament to keep racking up quality wins.

(3/4 Kansas State)

-----------No chance for anyone below this line to pass us regardless of any outcome------

59. Rutgers (38, 18-12) Taking Rutgers out of lock status after the loss to Minnesota, this is something I very rarely do but after their 4^th quad 3 loss. Only good win OOC was over Wake Forest. They do have 5 quad 1 wins. Will return to lock status with any win (3/5 Northwestern)

60. USC (50, 21-9) Lost to Arizona, no shame in that. I am not sure the last game of the year vs. Arizona State is a must win but they will have work to do in the Pac 12 tournament if they can’t get it done on their home court. (3/4 Arizona State)

11 seeds

61. Pitt (55, 21-8) – Pitt drops the game to Notre Dame for just an unforgiveable late season loss. For those complaining about A&Ms seed in relation to conference standings look away. Pitt is still in 1^st place in the ACC but has yet to secure their bid headed to the last game of the season. That’s partly due to not doing much OOC – beat Northwestern but lost 4 games to VCU, Vandy, Michigan and West Virginia. Also, with the unbalanced schedules they have mainly beat up on some bad ACC teams. They probably still get in even if they lose to Miami and go 0-1 in the ACC tournament given, they have the double bye, but if they do then they may be headed to Dayton. (3/4 @Miami)

62. Auburn (36, 19-10) – It is officially nervous time for Auburn. If they fail to beat Tennessee to close out the season, they will fall to .500 in the SEC, losing 9 of their last 12. Just 4-8 on the road, and 2-9 vs. Quad 1 competition, including losses to fellow last 8 teams in USC and Memphis. You have to go back to January 14^th for their last really good quality win against Mississippi State in Auburn. The win OOC over Northwestern is key but I’m not sure if it cancels out a pretty uninspiring run in the SEC. A win over Tennessee and they can lock themselves in, but a loss and it is possible they are on the outside looking in when we start tournament play. (3/4 Tennessee)

63. *Nevada (32, 21-8) Just when I was about to put Nevada into my bracket in ink they go and lose a quad 3 game to Wyoming, clearly their worst loss of the year. They still are in for now, but the game to end the year vs. UNLV is now a must win and even then, they may still have a bit of sweating to do if they have an early exit in the conference tournament. (3/4 UNLV)

64. *Mississippi State (43, 20-10) With their backs against the wall and facing a must win, the Bulldogs did just enough to get the win over A&M, collect their 4^th quad 1 win and stay on the right side of the bubble. They followed that up with a close win against South Carolina at home, a win that doesn’t really do anything to make them feel safer. Still need to finish the year with a win if they want to be on the right side of the bubble headed to the SEC Tournament. (3/4 @Vanderbilt)

65. Oral Roberts – Summit League auto bid (42, 23-4) – Finished Summit League play a perfect 18-0. All 4 losses are respectable to quad 1 opponents on the road (@St. Mary’s, @Houston, @Utah State, @New Mexico). Not enough ink is being written about the possibility of a 2 bid Summit League. I think it is going to be extremely hard to keep ORU out if they take their 1^st bad loss of the season in the conference tournament. Especially considering the tournament is being played on the home court of the conference #2 seed. All bubble teams should be watching the Summit League Tournament very closely and cheering for 3 more wins for Oral Roberts. (3/4 Summit League Quarterfinals North Dakota)

12 Seeds

66. Charleston CAA auto bid (53, 27-3) Charleston is in a similar position to Oral Roberts with the potential for a 2 bid CAA league. Charleston only had 1 quad 1 game, and they lost it at North Carolina. Their other 2 losses are @Hofstra and to Drexel, but they only have 3 losses to ORU’s 4. Hofstra is also a much more formidable 2^nd team in the conference than South Dakota State for ORU. These 2 leagues are 2 and 2a in terms of bid stealing possibilities (with Florida Atlantic in the CUSA still representing the biggest threat). (3/5 CAA Quarterfinals NC A&T/Stony Brook)

------If the season ended today the 66 teams above this line would feel relatively safe, in my estimation there is a bit of a gap between them and the final 2 spots up for grabs-----

67. *Wisconsin (74, 16-12) – The Badgers are the Rutgers of last year. The NET ranking suggest that they shouldn’t even be in the conversation but the 6 quad 1 wins and 4 more quad 2 is tough to ignore. If it comes down to head-to-head with Penn State (and it did for me), they did beat Penn State twice. A win Sunday does nothing for them, and they may still fall out prior to the Big 10 Tournament. (3/5 @Minnesota)

68. *Arizona State (61, 20-9) Couldn’t follow their miracle win over Arizona with a win at UCLA. Still, that’s a pretty darn good split. They finish the year @USC. A win there moves them to much safer territory. I don’t really see them getting in with a loss here unless they follow that with a deep Pac 12 tournament run. (3/4 @USC)

*Play In game Participants

------------------THE BUBBLE BURSTS HERE------------------

69. Utah State (22, 22-7) Won 4 in a row to stay alive. This is one that to me the NET ranking seems a bit odd for. After all they lost OOC to Weber State and SMU and are 0-4 vs. quad 1. They do have a lot of “nice” wins that are in that quad 2 range. That said, if they can finally get that elusive quad 1 win over Boise State to end the year, they absolutely deserve to be in, despite what happens in the MWC tournament (3/4 Boise State)

70. Penn State (57, 17-12) – It’s been a roller coaster last few weeks for Penn State. They won in overtime on a buzzer beater 3 over Northwestern and now have a chance to move into the field with a win over Maryland on Saturday. (3/5 Maryland)

71. North Carolina (44, 19-11) – North Carolina has picked up a couple of struggle wins over Florida State and Notre Dame that have done nothing to inspire confidence in the heels. Of course, those wins also sandwich their biggest win (and maybe only good win) of the year over Virginia. Even that win is barely quad 1 now and still leaves them at just 1-8 vs. quad 1. The best thing the resume has going for it is no bad losses but there still isn’t much to hang their hat on at this point in the season. Monster game to end the year vs. their archrival. They are done unless they can notch a 2^nd quad 1 win here. (3/4 Duke)

72. Bradley MVC Auto Bid? (56, 23-8) – Bradley has advanced to the semis and is 2 wins away from an auto bid. Won 11 in a row. The problem is most of them were against quad 4 competition. Despite being 0-5 vs. quad 1, if they don’t get the at large they will still warrant at least some consideration in the committee room. They were 3-1 vs. quad 2 however none of those wins really stand out. (3/4 MVC Semis Indiana St.)

73. Oklahoma St (47, 16-14) Oklahoma State takes their 14^th loss of the season, and 5^th in a row. 5 quad 1 wins are great, but they were not great OOC (lost to Southern Illinois and UCF and their best win was over Sam Houston State. At this point it feels like a win at Texas Tech to end the season may not even be enough to fully secure a bid. Maybe that one plus a 1^st round win in the Big 12 will be the magic formula. (3/4 @Texas Tech)

74. Michigan (54, 17-13) Michigan’s magic run may be over after losing in OT to Illinois. Still a good run picking up a few really quality wins to keep them in striking distance, but they need at least 1 more to stay in contention for an at large. They are still just 3-10 vs. Quad 1 and have a quad 4 loss OOC to Central Michigan. (3/5 @Indiana)

75. Oregon (48, 17-13, 10-8) Just 3-8 vs. Quad 1, went 6-5 non-conference, losing to UC Irvine and Utah Valley, and haven’t really done anything notable in conference play other than the win on their home court vs. Arizona. They need several more wins plus help from the rest of the field to come back to them. (3/4 Stanford)

76. Drake (70, 23-7, 15-5) – After losing to Bradley to end the regular season I don’t really see a realistic path here, but if the bubble really collapses and the committee goes searching for mid-majors its possible, they get a quick look as a 2^nd team from the MVC. They did after all get a quad 1 win on a neutral court over Mississippi State. The 3 quad 3 losses and#144 SOS is what almost certainly dooms this profile to the NIT without getting the automatic berth. (3/4 MVC Semis Southern Illinois)

77. Clemson (64, 21-9) Perhaps I was a bit too hasty eliminating Clemson. It is hard to overlook just how terrible some of their losses are, but if they can make a deep ACC tournament run who knows. (3/4 Notre Dame)

78. Texas Tech (52, 16-14) I just can’t quit Tech. If they win their last game of the year plus pick up 2-3 more quad 1 wins in the tournament (and if the committee decides to actually value the conference tournament, I know this hasn’t been a pretty season but we are still talking about a team that doesn’t have any losses outside the quad 1 and would have 8 quad 1 wins. (3/4 Oklahoma State)

79. Vanderbilt (84, 17-13) Like Texas Tech, Vanderbilt needs a win on Saturday plus a deep tournament run, plus having a committee that actually values the tournament this year. (3/4 Mississippi State)

80. North Texas (51, 22-6) Similar to Drake, I don’t really see the committee taking a serious look at UNT unless there is a concerted effort to go find mid major teams because they don’t want to reward a 15 loss Oklahoma State. Still with a lack of quality wins, I don’t think there is any chance unless their next loss comes in the CUSA Final to FAU. (3/4 Western Kentucky)

Eliminated Since Last Edition:

• Oklahoma (Lost 3/1 to Kansas State)
• New Mexico (Lost 3/3 to Colorado State)

What to Watch for (Aggie fans should cheer for the team in bold)

Saturday 3/4

• 11 AM CBS Alabama @ Texas A&M – if you have to be told who to root for here, I am not sure what to tell you. When it comes to seeding it’s interesting to scoreboard watch, but your own team controls a lot more of their destiny. Here is a chance for A&M to clinch their avoidance of the 8/9 game.
• 11 AM ESPN2 Iowa State @ Baylor – Let the Iowa State free fall continue.
• 11 AM Fox Seton Hall @ Providence – This would clinch Providence to be seeded behind A&M
• 11 AM ESPN Ohio State @ Michigan State – MSU is a direct seeding competitor.
• 1:00 No TV LOL Big 12 Kansas State @ West Virginia – No impact on A&M. Bubble teams should cheer for KSU.
• 1:00 ESPN Tennessee @ Auburn – No impact for A&M – Bubble teams (or anyone that wants Auburn to sit at home) should cheer for Tennessee.
• 1:00 ESPN2 Louisville @ Virginia – In order to pass Virginia, they need to take a bad loss. This would qualify.
• 1:00 CBS Kentucky @ Arkansas – I don’t believe Arkansas can pass A&M, Kentucky certainly can.
• 2:00 No TV LOL Big 12 TCU @ Oklahoma – a TCU loss here plus an A&M wins and TCU is catchable.
• 2:30 CBSSN MVC Semis Indiana State/Bradley – this is just a good basketball game. If you are a fan of mid major conference tournaments, you won’t want to miss this game.
• 2:30 SECN Ole Miss @ Missouri – Missouri can’t pass us if they lose this one.
• 3:00 CBS Stanford @ Oregon – No impact on A&M, this would eliminate Oregon from the BW.
• 4:00 UNLV @ Nevada – No impact on A&M. Bubble teams should root for UNLV.
• 5:00 ACCN Pitt @ Miami – I don’t think Pitt can catch A&M. We have a slim chance to catch Miami, (if we beat Alabama)
• 5:00 ESPN2 Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech – No impact on A&M. Bubble teams should root for Tech.
• 5:30 ESPN Duke @ UNC – No impact on A&M. Bubble teams should root for Duke.
• 6:00 Summit Semis North Dakota @ Oral Roberts – To me ORU deserves to go to the tournament, I’ll be rooting for them.
• 6:00 La Tech @ FAU – I don’t see FAU as a legitimate threat to pass A&M, but this would make it obvious.
• 7:30 SECN Mississippi State @ Vanderbilt – No impact for A&M. Bubble teams will be rooting for Vanderbilt.
• 8:00 FS1 Creighton @ DePaul – Creighton is catchable, especially if they lose this one.
• 8:00 Boise State @ Utah State – Unlikely Boise State passes A&M but if they have any hope they need this one. Bubble teams should root for Boise State.
• 9:00 CBSSN Wyoming @ San Diego State – A loss by SDSU here makes them vulnerable to being passed by A&M.
• 10:00 FS1 Arizona State @ USC – Bubble game of the night. Win and in for USC. Not quite for ASU but it’s a massive game.

Sunday 3/5

• 11 AM CBS Houston @ Memphis – Memphis gets a lot closer to passing A&M if they win this one.
• 11 AM BTN Maryland @ Penn State – Maryland is a direct competitor to A&M for seeding. Bubble teams should root for Maryland.
• 11:30 Fox Illinois @ Purdue – Illinois is a direct competitor to A&M for seeding.
• Noon Big South Championship
• 1:00 CBSSN MVC Championship
• 1:00 BTN Nebraska @ Iowa – Iowa is a direct competitor to A&M for seeding.
• 2:00 ESPN2 Atlantic Sun Championship – Liberty vs. Kennesaw State
• 3:30 CBS Michigan @ Indiana – We aren’t catching Indiana. Bubble teams want Michigan to lose.
• 5:00 CAA Quarterfinals – Charleston vs. TBD – Bubble teams want Charleston to get the Auto bid.
• 6:30 BTN Northwestern @ Rutgers – particularly if A&M wins on Saturday, we will be looking for NW to take a loss here so we can move ahead of them.
• 6:30 FS1 Wisconsin @ Minnesota – No impact for A&M, Bubble teams want Wisconsin to lose.

PREVIOUS EDITIONS:

• Jan. 19 Bubble Watch (#73)
• Jan. 29 Bubble Watch (#67)
• Feb. 5 Bubble Watch (#69)
• Feb. 12 Bubble Watch (#64)
• Feb. 16 Bubble Watch (#56 9 seed)
• Feb. 19 Bubble Watch (#51 8 seed)
• Feb. 23 Bubble Watch (#46 7 seed)
• Feb. 26 Bubble Watch #48 7 seed
• Mar. 1 Bubble Watch #48 7 seed