Final Update! Selection Sunday Morning!
Wow this Texas A&M team is fun to watch! Aggies continue to roll and, in my estimation, have played their way into a 5 seed. With only a handful of championships scheduled for Sunday and being hours away from the official bracket reveal, the bracket is essentially set regardless of the outcomes of today’s games.
There weren’t very many other updates from Saturday. A dozen or so of the automatic bids were handed out which adjusted the 13-16 seed lines slightly. Kansas lost and slipped to the #2 overall seed. UCLA lost and confirmed Purdue as the 4th 1 seed. And then all the potential bid stealers lost, which means everyone around the bubble was breathing a little easier by Saturday night.
The only bubble team that was still in action on Saturday was Vanderbilt, coming into the day not into the field and then being completely noncompetitive means there was no movement of teams in and out of the field. I feel very confident about the first 66 teams into the field, the real bubble that is a difficult decision is 5 teams for 2 spots – Oklahoma State, Arizona State, Nevada, Pitt, and Wisconsin. For a full numerical breakdown of the bubble and some insight into the process I use to evaluate teams, check out the below statistical analysis. Each of these numbers (in addition to things like road record, non-conference record, etc.) is what is on the selection committee “team sheets” that are used for selection and seeding. This isn’t just a numbers game, when the numbers are close it just means there is a conversation which is what I think will happen with essentially 5 teams for 2 spots on the cut line.
Here is how I evaluate the 12 teams on the bubble, in order.
So, I’ll take Oklahoma State and Arizona State with the final 2 spots. No, I don’t feel great about it at all and was hoping for a stolen bid or 2 to take these spots off the table. Arizona States non-conference and the win over Creighton is ultimately what put them over the top for me.
For seeding and where A&M is compared to other teams near them here is that same look. These numbers were BEFORE the Vanderbilt game. But the seeding is essentially done as of Saturday night. These are old school guys (and gals) using printouts in their binder in front of them. They aren’t checking their phone for how high we went in KenPom as a result of the blowout. They are likely using these numbers and then will at best make the tweaks to the seeding using the knowledge of Saturday.
Key insights: very close numbers standpoint from Indiana through Creighton. A&M appears to be top 20 in essentially every metric (that’s a key number for a 5 seed), even before the win against Vanderbilt. I gave Iowa State a boost because their key wins and who have you beat stat is better than anyone outside of the 1 seeds. Miami should clearly be a 6. Not only is that what the computers say, they are the only team in this range without a quad 1A win. It would be completely undeserved for them to get a 5. A&M and Duke are attached at the hip, but the lack of quad 1 wins is a separator for me to have A&M slightly in front. Duke (and A&M) should be ahead of Virginia after the ACC championship – do I have any faith in that happening? No.
So here is my seed list as of Sunday morning. I do not foresee any major changes to this based on Sunday’s action. (5 games, small tweaks noted based on who auto bid for Ivy and A10, no seeding impact for SEC, AAC or Big 10 – although there could be a contingent bracket where Penn State and Utah State flip if PSU loses).
1 seeds
1. Alabama
2. Kansas
3. Houston
4. Purdue
2 seeds
5. UCLA
6. Texas
7. Arizona
8. Gonzaga
3 seeds
9. Marquette
10. Baylor
11. UConn
12. Kansas State
4 seeds
13. Xavier
14. Tennessee
15. Indiana
16. Virginia
5 seeds
17. Iowa State
18. San Diego State
19. Duke
20. Texas A&M
6 Seeds
21. Miami
22. St. Mary’s
23. TCU
24. Kentucky
7 Seed
25. Creighton
26. Missouri
27. Michigan State
28. Florida Atlantic
8 Seed
29. Northwestern
30. Maryland
31. West Virginia
32. Memphis
9 seeds
33. Arkansas
34. Boise State
35. Auburn
36. Penn State
10 Seeds
37. Utah State
38. Illinois
39. Iowa
40. USC
11 seeds
41. NC State
42. Rutgers
43. *Providence
44. *Mississippi State
45. *Oklahoma State
46. *Arizona State
*Play In game Participants
12 Seeds
47. Summit League – Oral Roberts
48. CAA – Charleston
49. MVC – Drake
50. A10 – Dayton vs. VCU – Projecting VCU to win. If Dayton wins they are a 13 seed and move Kent State up to a 12.
13 Seeds
51. MAC - Kent State
52. MAAC – Iona
53. Ivy – Yale vs. Princeton – Projecting Yale to win. If Princeton wins they are a 14 and move Furman up to a 13.
54. Sun Belt – Louisiana
14 Seeds
55. Southern – Furman
56. Big West – UCSB
57. Atlantic Sun – Kennesaw State
58. Big Sky – Montana State
15 Seeds
59. Patriot – Colgate
60. WAC – Grand Canyon
61. America East – Vermont
62. Big South UNC Asheville
16 Seeds
63. Horizon - Northern Kentucky
64. Southland – Texas A&M Corpus Christi
65. %MEAC – Howard
66. %Ohio Valley – Southeastern Missouri
67. %Northeast – Fairleigh Dickinson
68. %SWAC – Texas Southern
The Projected Bracket
South
Birmingham
1 Alabama
16 Northern Kentucky
8 Northwestern
9 Boise State
Greensboro
4 Xavier
13 Louisiana
5 Iowa State
12 Oral Roberts
Des Moines
3 Kansas State
14 Furman
6 St. Mary’s
11 NC State
Denver
2 Arizona
15 UNC Asheville
7 Creighton
10 Iowa
East
Columbus
1 Purdue
16 Southeastern Missouri/ Fairleigh Dickinson
8 Memphis
9 Arkansas
Greensboro
4 Tennessee
13 Iona
5 San Diego State
12 Charleston
Albany
3 UConn
14 Kennesaw State
6 Kentucky
11 Oklahoma State / Arizona State
Denver
2 Texas
15 Colgate
7 Michigan State
10 USC
West
Birmingham
1 Houston
16 Texas A&M Corpus Christi
8 West Virginia
9 Penn State
Albany
4 Virginia
13 Yale
5 Texas A&M
12 Drake
Orlando
3 Baylor
14 UCSB
6 Miami
11 Providence/ Mississippi State
Sacramento
2 UCLA
15 Grand Canyon
7 Florida Atlantic
10 Utah State
Midwest
Des Moines
1 Kansas
16 Texas Southern / Howard
8 Maryland
9 Auburn
Orlando
4 Indiana
13 Kent State
5 Duke
12 VCU
Columbus
3 Marquette
14 Montana State
6 TCU
11 Rutgers
Sacramento
2 Gonzaga
15 Vermont
7 Missouri
10 Illinois
*Note: 2 slight unresolved issues (Maryland/Indiana and Oklahoma State/Texas are a bit too close and due to the number of teams in from each conference the issues were not easily resolved without un naturally moving a team to a different line which I chose not to do for this projection)
PREVIOUS EDITIONS:
- Jan. 19 Bubble Watch (#73)
- Jan. 29 Bubble Watch (#67)
- Feb. 5 Bubble Watch (#69)
- Feb. 12 Bubble Watch (#64)
- Feb. 16 Bubble Watch (#56 9 seed)
- Feb. 19 Bubble Watch (#51 8 seed)
- Feb. 23 Bubble Watch (#46 7 seed)
- Feb. 26 Bubble Watch #48 7 seed
- Mar. 1 Bubble Watch #48 7 seed
- Mar. 4 Bubble Watch #47 7 seed
- Mar. 6 Bubble Watch #42 6 seed
- Mar. 9 Bubble Watch #44 6 seed
- Mar. 11 Bubble Watch #41 5 Seed
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