Bubble Watch: 2/12/23

Next Update Thursday 2/16 (and after each Texas A&M game for the remainder of the season)

There aren’t very many teams in the entire country that are playing better basketball than Texas A&M. If the tournament was selected based entirely on games since Christmas, A&M would be 12-2 with no bad losses and might be vying for somewhere in the neighborhood of a 3 seed. The problem is that the selection committee looks at the entire body of work and games played in November and December are just as important as January and February.

In the non-conference, A&M was about the 180^th best team in the country from what the computers tell us. That’s a heck of a hole to dig out of, but the Aggies have managed to do just that to be in a position of just win the games you are supposed to/play .500 ball for the next month and be in the tournament. Some may be disappointed A&M isn’t higher on this list, but to do so would ignore out of conference play. It’s also ignoring that A&M’s best win out of conference was Northwestern State and even in conference building a 10-2 record, we still have yet to beat anyone that is a top 25 team/would be on the first 6 seed lines.

That’s the dose of reality. It doesn’t mean there isn’t all the reason in the world to be excited about how this team is playing. But that is the reason why we are 2^nd in the SEC and unfortunately are still going to have to follow the bubble closely for at least another couple of weeks. With the schedule ahead however, continuing a winning trend could see leaps of entire seed lines in the near future if they can score some more quad 1 wins.

In terms of where we stack up currently? As always, let’s start tracking by considering the automatic bids that are taken out of the equation, starting with the “Likely one-bid leagues”. These are the leagues that as of right now appear to be headed for only 1 bid going to the conference tournament winner, regardless of who that winner is. After accounting for these we have a better picture of how many bids are truly up for grabs.

Likely One-bid leagues

Conference (Projected Champ, Current Net)

1. A10 (Dayton, 78) - maybe a .1% chance at an at large that you can read about after the bubble burst line.
2. Atlantic Sun – (Liberty, 46) despite the NET – 0 Q1 wins, 1Q2 (Bradley) – no chance
3. Big Sky (Montana State, 106)
4. Big South (Longwood, 154)
5. Big West – (UC Irvine, 90)
6. Colonial (Charleston, 59) - Charleston possibly has a chance to work their way back into at large contention (tracked after the bubble burst line) but they now have ZERO margin for error. 2-0 this week
7. America East (Vermont, 128)
8. Horizon (Youngstown State, 111)
9. Ivy – (Yale, 69)
10. MAC - (Kent State, 61) – despite the NET no Q1 or Q2 wins and a Q4 loss – no realistic chance
11. MAAC – (Iona, 71)
12. MEAC (Norfolk State, 172)
13. MVC (Bradley, 63) Won 6 straight to keep themselves a very fringe candidate but realistically there is not a path to an at large.
14. Northeast (Wagner, 293)
15. Ohio Valley (SIUE, 203)
16. Patriot (Colgate, 101)
17. Southland (Northwestern State, 166)
18. Southern (Furman, 82)
19. Sun Belt – (Southern Miss, 57) maybe a .1% chance at an at large, not a serious threat.
20. SWAC (Grambling State, 202)
21. WAC - Sam Houston State (58)

And just like that we are down to 11 conferences battling for 47 spots.

Multi-bid conference/at-large seeds

For the other 10 conferences, they each have a team that as of right now would make the field and get an at large if necessary. Their conference leader (in NET) will be counted as their auto bid and will be bolded. Eight leagues are almost certainly multi-bid no matter what (ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, Big East, MWC, Pac 12, and WCC)

The last 3 conferences (AC – Houston, CUSA – FAU, Summit – Oral Roberts) as of right now have one team solidly IN – if they win their conference tournament, they could be one bid leagues. But things need to shake out right over the last month of the season and in the conference tournament for that to come to fruition.

So, what about the 47 bids remaining? Let the counting begin…

As we enter mid-February, we will start to lock in teams that have earned an at large bid no matter what else happens the rest of the way. They are still ranked in order, but will no longer have a write up, which will allow us to focus more energy on analyzing those that are truly bubble teams. Not very many yet, but we will see a handful earn lock status with each update the rest of the way.

Net ranking listed by each bubble team name. Bold teams count as the auto bid placeholder.

1 seeds

22. Purdue Big Ten auto bid

23. Alabama SEC auto bid

24. Houston AAC auto bid

26. Kansas Big 12 auto bid

2 seeds

25. Arizona Pac 12 auto bid

27. Texas

28. UCLA

29. Baylor

3 seeds

30. Virginia ACC auto bid

31. Tennessee SEC auto bid (3, 19-6, 8-4) –After back-to-back losses I will hold off locking up the Vols until they can officially cross the 20 win threshold and clinch going .500 in the SEC. They did beat Kansas and Texas OOC so .500 is good enough to make the field but this recent losing trend has dropped them from a 1 seed to a 3. (2/15 Alabama)

32. Marquette Big East Auto bid – locked in with 5 games left, despite still being behind Tennessee

33. Indiana I am higher on Indiana than most. Locking them in with them winning 8 of 9. 9 Q1/Q2 wins. No bad losses and no chances for a bad loss the rest of the way. Clinched .500 in conference.

4 seeds

34. Gonzaga WCC Auto bid (12, 20-5, 10-2) Going to hold off from locking in the Zags just based on the schedule, if they were to collapse and lose out that means taking several Q4 losses. No reasonable path to not see them in the field though. (2/16 @ Loyola Marymount)

35. Kansas State (18, 19-6, 7-5) Lost 3 of 4. It’s possible they have done enough already but I see a little bit of separation between the Wildcats and the top tier of the Big 12. (2/14 @Oklahoma)

36. Iowa State (16, 16-8, 7-5) Lost 4 of their last 5, I have the Cyclones in a similar position as Kansas State, possibly have done enough already but one more win will be a definitive lock. (2/15 TCU)

37. Xavier (26, 19-6, 11-3) – Took the loss to Butler on Friday night to stay out of the lock zone for another game. They can emphatically lock up their bid if they win at Marquette on Wednesday night for their 7^th quad 1 win. The other 6 are (UConn x2, Marquette, Creighton, West Virginia, Providence). (Next: 2/15 @Marquette)

5 seeds

38. UConn (9, 19-7, 8-7)- Missed a chance on Saturday to reach lock status. The conference record is a concern for now, but their schedule is about as soft as it gets down the stretch. Beat Alabama and Iowa State OOC so as long as they don’t completely collapse, they are fine. (2/18 Seton Hall)

39. Miami (32, 20-5, 11-4) – Won 4 in a row to get to 20 wins and 11-4 in conference. Feels like just 1 more win will lock them up. (2/13 @ North Carolina)

40. Creighton (13, 17-8, 11-3) Winners of 8 in a row Creighton has soared from outside the field to closing in on lock status by mid-February. One more might be enough but 2 more for sure against a manageable schedule down the stretch. (2/14 @Providence)

41. Illinois (22, 17-7, 8-5) – Wins over UCLA and Texas OOC, and no bad losses yet. One more win may be enough for lock status. (2/14 @Penn State)

6 seeds

42. TCU (24, 17-8, 6-6) – Dropped their 3^rd straight to fall to 6-6 in conference. They have great top tier wins at Kansas, at Baylor, and over Providence and Iowa, but a middling conference record and a November loss to Northwestern State at home. Probably need just 1 more to feel secure given the difficult SOS. (2/15 @Iowa State)

43. St. Mary’s (6, 21-5, 11-1) Still just 2 quad 1 wins (Gonzaga, San Diego State) to counter 2 quad 3 losses. Great computer profile. Its hard for me to put them too much higher than this. Still their risk of missing the tournament is practically zero. They have a couple of quad 4 games left, assuming they win at least one of them they will move to a lock. (2/16 @ San Diego)

44. San Diego State MWC auto bid (19, 19-5, 11-2) Great week for SDSU. Now dominating the MWC which is exactly what they need to do given their only good win OOC is over Ohio State which has lost a lot of luster. #5 SOS and no bad losses. Assuming they win each of the next 2 that they will be heavy favorites in they will move to lock status. (2/15 @Fresno State)

45. Duke (30, 17-8, 8-6) – 0-2 week on the road to Miami and Virginia, hard to fault the Blue Devils too much for that and they still don’t have a loss outside of quad 1. Still, just 8-6 in the ACC in a very down year. They really need to take advantage of the weak schedule coming up (Notre Dame, @Syracuse, Louisville) If they can win all 3 of those, they will move to lock status. Even just 2/3 and they may be feeling somewhat comfortable. (2/14 Notre Dame)

7 seeds

46. Rutgers (21, 16-9, 8-6) – 0-2 week on the road at Indiana and Illinois. Those losses don’t really hurt the resume, but the conference record is starting to look a bit shakier given their best OOC win is against a Wake Forest team that likely won’t make the tournament. The win @Purdue is everything for this resume. They don’t have as much OOC as some of the other Big 10 bubble teams so they may need a 10-8 conference mark to feel safe. The schedule down the stretch is easy enough that accomplishing shouldn’t be a problem. (2/14 Nebraska)

47. Missouri (44, 19-6, 7-5) – Huge win on Saturday at Tennessee. 4-6 vs. Quad 1 and undefeated outside of that group. Did enough OOC beating Illinois that going 3-3 the rest of the way should be good enough. (2/14 @Auburn)

48. NC State (42, 20-6, 10-5) A loss to Pitt is their worst loss and they are 4-5 vs. Quad 1. Didn’t do much OOC (best win is over Dayton) but they are just humming along winning all the games they are supposed to. (2/14 @Syracuse)

49. Providence (34, 18-7, 10-4) Stumbled a bit with a loss at Saint John’s on Saturday. Didn’t do anything OOC (no wins against the top 250!!!) but did notch conference wins against Marquette and UConn. Still in pretty good shape but if they go 0-2 on their upcoming homestand things start to get a bit more interesting. (2/14 Creighton)

8 seeds

50. Michigan State (41, 15-9, 7-6) Wins over Kentucky and Oregon OOC but the meat of this resume is big wins in conference to be 6-7 in quad 1 games. If they can just go 3-4 the rest of the way to finish .500 in conference, they will be fine. (Next: 2/12 @Ohio State, 2/15 Minnesota)

51. Maryland (28, 17-8, 8-6) No losses outside of Quad 1. Best wins are Indiana, Illinois, and Miami. Like the other Big 10 bubblers, if they can just finish 10-10 in conference that feels like it will be good enough. (Next: 2/16 Purdue)

52. Iowa (38, 15-9, 7-6) The worst loss of a potential tournament team goes to the Hawkeyes losing to #345 Eastern Illinois on their home court, but it’s the only Q3/Q4 loss. 7-6 in Quad 1, 3-2 in Quad 2. In similar position to Michigan State, if they can just go 3-4 down the stretch to get to .500 in conference, they are in. (2/12 @Minnesota)

53. Pitt (52, 18-7, 11-3) – Winners of 5 in a row to get to 11-3 in conference and for now play their way off the bubble. Didn’t do much OOC outside of a win at Northwestern but in ACC play they have wins over Virginia, UNC (twice) and Miami. If they can just beat the teams at the bottom of the conference down the stretch Pitt should be fine. (Next: 2/14 BC)

9 seeds

54. Oklahoma St (29, 16-9, 7-5) Won 5 in a row, beating Iowa State twice along with TCU. Have gone from well out of the field to threatening a top 8 seed and astonishingly on the verge of lock status with just 1 more win. None of the remaining 6 will be easy but the Pokes look solid for an at large. (2/14 Kansas)

55. West Virginia (25, 15-10, 4-8) WVU has been great at protecting home court which has led to some great wins 5-10 vs. Quad 1. Worst loss is at Oklahoma. The only concern with this profile is the conference record. There is a precedent that 7-11 is good enough, you have to think with how good the Big 12 this year that they can still get in if they can just get to 6-12 in conference. Home games left against Texas Tech and Oklahoma State will probably be enough, but if they lose both of those, they are going to have to score an upset somewhere else. (Next: 2/13 @Baylor)

56. Florida Atlantic CUSA auto bid (20, 22-2, 14-1) – Won 22 of 23. Only losses are @UAB and @Ole Miss. Best win is at Florida, if they can win out in the regular season, they will be a lock going into the conference tournament. No teams in the top 100 left on the schedule. If they stub their toe and take an unexpected loss, they will have a nervous wait on Selection Sunday if they need an at large. (2/16 @Middle Tennessee State)

(This is where the resumes start having some major blemishes and start to feel like true bubble teams)

57. Northwestern (49, 17-7, 8-5) – Big time bounce back week for NW after losing to Iowa and Michigan to come back and get 2 Q1 road wins at Wisconsin and at Ohio State (although it is debatable if either should really be considered a quality win). Now they have a homestand against Purdue, Indiana, and Iowa and if they can protect home court could essentially lock themselves in before having to hit the road again. No bad losses. No games left vs. teams outside the top 65. If they can just get to 20 wins that feels like more than enough given, they are already 6-4 vs. Q1. (Next: 2/12 Purdue, 2/15 Indiana)

10 seeds

58. Arkansas (23, 16-7) – The win over San Diego State and avoiding any bad losses gave Arkansas a bit of breathing room going into SEC play. They have used up just about all that room by going .500 in SEC play. If they can stay .500, they should still get in but that may be easier said than done with road games left vs. the top 3 @A&M, @Alabama and @Tennessee. That means they need to protect home court and win all 3 of Florida, Georgia, and Kentucky to feel ok going into the SECT. (2/15 @Texas A&M)

59. Auburn (35, 17-8, 6-6) – Losers of 3 in a row and 6 of their last 7 its time to start worrying on the plains. Now just 7-5 in conference with road games at Kentucky and Alabama to come along with home games against Missouri and Tennessee. Really the only good wins here are against Northwestern and Arkansas. They have successfully avoided any Q3 and Q4 losses, but they need to start winning games in a hurry. (2/14 Missouri)

60. Nevada (31, 19-6, 10-3) Winners of 4 straight, including 2 quad 1 wins the wolfpack have played their way in for now. No bad losses if they can keep it that way then they are in. @Utah State is by no means a must win anymore so long as they win the others. (2/18 @Utah State)

61. North Carolina (39, 16-9, 8-6) – I am not as down on North Carolina as many of the experts. It was astonishing to me how many took them completely out of the field during their 3-game losing streak. They still only have 1 loss outside of Quad 1…. a 1 point loss on their home court to Pitt. And while they have struggled in quad 1 games at just 1-8 (and the 1 win was against Ohio State which feels like it won’t be a quad 1 much longer), to me they still look like a tournament team, and this is still overall a tournament resume for now. That said, they may still need to win either against Miami or @NC State this week to feel good about their chances. (2/13 Miami)

11 seeds

62. Boise State (27, 18-6, 9-3) – Just 1-3 vs. Quad 1 (vs. Texas A&M) with a quad 3 and a quad 4 loss mixed in to South Dakota State and Charlotte. Schedule over the next 4 are very manageable and they need to win all of them before ending with San Diego State and @Utah State. They may need to get 1 of those wins too. (2/15 @ Colorado State)

63. Memphis (42, 18-6, 8-3) – The 4-1 record OOC vs. the SEC will certainly be a talking point if it comes down to Memphis vs. A&M, Florida, or Kentucky. Memphis still looks like the most likely 2^nd team out of the AAC but assuming they have 3 losses left to Houston (2 in reg season + one in the AAC tournament) do they have any margin for another loss? Probably not given the weakness of the competition and only 1 Q1 win. (Next 2/12 Temple)

*64. Texas A&M (33, 18-7, 10-2) – I do still have A&M playing in Dayton as one of the last 4 in despite another really good week. I explained most of that rationale at the start of this article, but to reiterate, just two wins to really feel great about over Missouri and at Auburn so far to balance out the two OOC Quad 4 losses. Sweeping Florida and Auburn looks a bit less impressive with each passing game and the question of the year – will 12-6 be enough – looks more and more uncertain. 3-3 the rest of the way feels like a certainty to be in (and probably avoiding Dayton), 2-4 will be a very nervous Selection Sunday. 5 of the remaining 6 games are quad 1 opportunities. Also, important to note, there is not much separating the 9 seeds from the 11 seeds so a win on Wednesday may see us shoot up quite a bit, while a loss and we should fall back somewhere near that 68/69 line. (2/15 Arkansas)

65. Oral Roberts – Summit League auto bid (37, 19-4, 14-0) – It’s time to take the Summit seriously as a potential bid stolen. ORU has won 10 straight games (20 out of 21) and they don’t have a loss outside of Quad 1. All 4 losses are respectable (St. Mary’s, Houston, Utah State, New Mexico). League play will leave no margin for error as any loss is a bad loss. That said they haven’t slipped up yet and just have 4 more tests left. If they take their first and only bad loss in the conference tournament – I can see them sneaking in as a last 4 in. (2/16 North Dakota)

*66. New Mexico (47, 18-5, 6-6) – The Lobos are officially in a tailspin losing 3 straight, this time a loss to #173 Air Force by 22. That is their 3^rd Quad 3 loss of the season. They do still have 3 quad 1 wins over Boise State, @San Diego St. and the “Quad 1A” win at St. Mary’s which will be one of the biggest wins of any bubble team. But at 6-6 in the Mountain West and a NET that is tanking if they lose games remaining at Boise State and then home to San Diego State, they are going to be very nervous on Selection Sunday. (Next: 2/14 Wyoming)

12 Seeds

*67. Clemson (77, 18-7, 10-4) – Clemson’s profile is in an absolute free fall losing 3 in a row and now their NET ranking is a serious issue. The only good thing about the profile was the conference record but now even that doesn’t look quite so stellar. 3 bad losses now to South Carolina (A&M beat them), Loyola Chicago (A&M beat them) and BC. Given they have a relatively easy schedule ahead it seems they need 4/6 to be in the at large conversation and probably 5 of 6 to feel confident headed into the conference tournament. (2/15 Florida State)

*68. Mississippi State (40, 17-8, 5-7) 5 game winning streak including wins over TCU, Missouri and now at Arkansas has worked Mississippi State all the way up to now in the field. Still just 5-7 in conference after playing a brutal top-heavy schedule (4 losses to Tennessee and Alabama). The schedule is much easier down the stretch, they need to win at least 4 of 6 to be in the conversation and 5 of 6 to feel any kind of good about their chances. (2/15 Kentucky)

*Play-in game participants

------------------THE BUBBLE BURSTS HERE------------------

69. Charleston CAA auto bid? (59, 23-3, 12-2) They have taken advantage of lots of losses from other bubble teams to work their way back to the cut line but there is still zero margin for error here. Any tournament loss would be a bad one they need to win out in the regular season to even be in the conversation. Their NET has completely tanked. Best wins are against Virginia Tech and Kent State. (2/13 Northeastern)

70. Kentucky (45, 16-9, 7-5) – After an 0-2 week the Wildcats have dropped just out of the field. Just 1-7 in their Quad 1 games with a loss at home to South Carolina. Like Miss State they need at least 4 of the last 6 if not 4 of 6 to feel ok. (2/15 @ Mississippi State)

71. USC (62, 17-8, 9-5) I have moved USC much further down than many based on their 0-2 week. Playing on the road is tough sure but you just can’t lose at Oregon State when playing for your bubble life. A couple absolute must wins coming up as they return home. Their only good win OOC over Auburn is looking less stellar. (2/16 Cal)

72. Wisconsin (80, 14-10, 6-8) – Took their worst loss of the season on Saturday losing at Nebraska. Solid wins vs. Penn State, Iowa, Maryland, Marquette, USC and Dayton but the NET ranking is a big issue right now. (2/14 Michigan)

73. Oregon (51, 15-11, 9-6) Got the needed split by beating USC but losing to UCLA. OOC losses to UC Irvine, and Utah Valley. Given a very weak schedule down the stretch they need a 5-0 finish to be in the conversation going into tournament week. (2/15 @Washington)

74. Southern Miss Sun Belt auto bid? (57, 20-4, 12-2) Almost certainly will need the auto bid, but they have won 9 straight and if they win out their resume will be getting close to at large consideration. (2/16 @South Alabama)

75. Arizona State (65, 18-8, 9-6) Got the 2-0 week they needed. Backs are still against the wall coming home for a couple more must win games. (2/16 Colorado)

76. Oklahoma (75, 12-13, 2-10) Losers of 7 straight Big 12 games (with a 24-point blowout of Alabama mixed in????) the Sooners are now 2-10 in conference. Will have to win 4 of their last 6 to get consideration and with the upcoming schedule that’s a tall order. (2/14 Kansas State)

77. Penn State (66, 14-11, 5-9) – There isn’t much too this resume other than home wins against Indiana and Iowa. #243 OOC SOS means they need a .500 record or better in conference. Lost 4 in a row and probably need to win 5 of their last 6 to feel like they have a chance at an at large. (2/14 Illinois)

78. Seton Hall (60, 14-11, 8-7) 0-2 week to fall to 8-7 in the Big East. 3 good quad 1 wins over UConn, Rutgers, and Memphis. May need to win out to get there. (2/14 Georgetown)

79. Florida (54, 13-12, 6-6) I have always been much more pessimistic about the Gators than the national media. Maybe after the 3-game losing streak everyone is catching up to the fact that maybe Florida just isn’t that good. Florida will need to win 5/6 to even be in the conversation going into the conference tournaments. Outside of a trip to Arkansas, the schedule is favorable to potentially do that, however. (2/15 Ole Miss)

80. Wake Forest (73, 17-9, 9-6) – Won 3 in a row to keep hope alive. Need to win 4/5 to be in the conversation, maybe even need to win out. (2/18 @Miami)

81. Utah (53, 17-9, 10-5). 2-0 last week to stay alive. Just 1-5 against quad 1 so they really need to take advantage of the trip to Arizona coming up. (2/16 @Arizona)

82. Virginia Tech (56, 15-10, 5-9) Followed up a win over Virginia with losing on their home court to BC. That’s a sweep for BC and a Q3 and a Q4 loss. They need to win 5 of 6 to be in the conversation and might even need to win out. (2/15 @Georgia Tech)

83. Utah State (36, 18-7, 8-5) Took a loss that they could not afford on Saturday at San Jose State. Despite a great NET, they still have zero quad 1 wins and probably need to win out to erase the memories of a loss on their home court to Weber State and get in. (2/14 Air Force)

84. Michigan (67, 14-11, 8-6)- 3 game winning streak is over after a heartbreaking loss to Indiana. they did beat Northwestern to technically stay alive. Still so many more opportunities for quad 1 to make some leaps closer to the field. (2/14 @Wisconsin)

---Including even the fringe candidates now…because it’s fun to cross them out as they lose their must win games---

85. Texas Tech (68, 13-12, 2-10) – like Michigan they are technically alive just because there are so many opportunities to win statement games available to them. They took advantage of that by beating Kansas State on Saturday. Backs still firmly against the wall and probably need to win 5 of the last 6. (2/13 Texas)

86. North Texas (50, 19-5, 12-3) – Winners of 6 straight, if they can win out all the way until a loss in the championship to FAU, we are talking about a 26-win team…. maybe (2/16 @La Tech)

87. UNLV (83, 15-9, 5-8) - a loss to San Diego State probably takes them out of contention but them “winning out” means beating Boise St, Utah St., and Nevada…so technically there is a path for an at large (2/14 San Jose State)

88. Ohio State (48, 11-13, 3-10) I wish I could drop the Buckeyes completely out of consideration. The problem is that even at 13 losses already and losing 10 of the last 11…. if they found a way to win out to get to 10-10 in conference, they would have 8 Q1 wins and obviously in. So, keeping them here until they blow another opportunity (or 2). (2/12 Mich. St.)

91. Bradley (63, 18-8, 12-4) – The problem here is that they are 0-4 in Quad 1 and have no more chances. Very unlikely even if they win out. They have won 6 in a row to stay in very fringe contention. (2/15 Missouri State)

92. Kent State MAC auto bid? (61, 18-5, 10-2) Needs to win out to be in the conversation and even then, it’s a conversation that probably starts and ends with zero quad 1 wins. 2-0 this last week to stay alive. (Next 2/14 @Western Michigan)

93. Dayton A10 Auto bid? (78, 17-9, 9-4) Won @VCU and vs. Saint Louis this week to eliminate both teams. I honestly don’t see a realistic path here given 0 quad 1 wins (and no more Q1 opportunities) but as the clear-cut best A10 profile we will keep them here until they lose again. (2/17 @Loyola-Chicago)

94. Drake (72, 20-6, 12-4) new add – if you are going to have Bradley and Dayton here you might as well have Drake, the 2^nd team from the MVC. They at least have a Q1 win beating Mississippi State on a neutral court and may have a chance to add a 2^nd one by winning on the road at Bradley at the end of the yar. Won 7 straight. (2/15 @Northern Iowa)

95. Tulane (86, 16-7, 9-3) new add - Winners of 4 straight including at Memphis. 5-3 in Q1 and Q2. The 3 Q3 losses are a killer. If they win out that means winning at Houston which would get them at least some consideration. (2/18 @USF)

89. Colorado (70, 14-12, 6-9) - maybe if they win out? (2/16 @Arizona State)

90. UCF (55, 15-9, 6-6) – maybe if they win out? (2/16 @Memphis)

96. Saint John’s (99, 15-11, 5-10) new add – Beat Providence to make it on the list. In the unlikely event they win out they would finish at .500 in conference and have 2 wins over UConn to go along with wins over Providence, Marquette, and Creighton. So, they arguably control their own destiny but its hard to imagine they can take advantage of that. (2/14 @DePaul)

Eliminated Since Last Edition:

· UAB (lost to North Texas)

· VCU (lost to Dayton)

· Saint Louis (lost to Dayton)

· Cincinnati (Lost to Tulane)

PREVIOUS EDITIONS:

• Jan. 19 Bubble Watch
• Jan. 29 Bubble Watch
• Feb. 5 Bubble Watch