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Arnold Against The Spread: Championship Week

A negative week brings us to .500 on the season, now we try to finish positive

NCAA Football: Georgia at Georgia Tech Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Rivalry Week brought us down to Earth again with a 2-5 record on our bets for the week. The regular season is now over but we have conference championships and bowl season to try and finish the season on a high note. Our record on the year so far? 52-52. We’ll be using the odds* courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, as usual. Can we close out this season above .500? Let’s find out!

Pac-12 Championship: Oregon -9.5 vs. Washington

NCAA Football: Oregon State at Oregon Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

The Oregon Ducks are playing some of the best football in the country right now. Washington secured victory earlier in the season, but man, it is difficult to beat the same team twice. Especially when that team is an Oregon squad that appears to be peaking at the perfect time. The Huskies won’t have a home-field advantage this round and I think the Ducks roll. I like Oregon to cover -9.5.

Big 12 Championship: Oklahoma State vs. Texas Under 55.5

The Longhorns are coming off of an absolute dismantling of Texas Tech in Austin while Oklahoma State narrowly finds themselves in Arlington courtesy of an overtime win over BYU. This Oklahoma State team has been a roller coaster throughout 2023 so it’s a bit difficult to get a read on which version of the Pokes will show up. What I do know is the Texas defense has really stepped up in the late stages of the season. I’d expect them to keep Oklahoma State offense in check in Jerry World this weekend. Take the under.

AAC Championship: SMU at Tulane Over 48

NCAA Football: Southern Methodist at Temple Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Both SMU and Tulane come into the American Championship with undefeated conference records. Tulane will host the contest thanks to their slightly better overall record. This should be an absolute thriller and could very well determine who earns the Group of 5 placement in a New Year’s Six Bowl. Both teams have relied on strong defense late in the season as evidenced by the relatively low point total set at 48. However, I think this one is primed for the offenses to have some big plays. I’m taking the over here.

SEC Championship: Georgia vs. Alabama Under 54.5

It comes as no surprise that Georgia and Alabama are bringing two extremely talented defenses to Atlanta to compete for the SEC title and a playoff berth. No matter which team ends up coming out on top, I’d expect a low-scoring affair. Both the Tide and Bulldogs have plenty of familiarity with each other. Take the under in this one.

Upset Special - CUSA Championship: New Mexico State +310 at Liberty

NCAA Football: New Mexico State at Auburn John Reed-USA TODAY Sports

I’m finding a few similarities between this contest and the Oregon/Washington contest mentioned at the top of the blog. For starters, while the Aggies suffered a defeat to Liberty already once this season, this feels like a squad that has really rallied together and become much better as the season has pressed on. One need look no further than their dominant win over Auburn at Jordan-Hare. And once again, it is extremely difficult to beat the same team twice. I like New Mexico State and Jerry Kill to pull off the upset and end Liberty’s perfect season.

Which conference championship are you most excited about?

*Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See for details