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Arnold Against The Spread Szn Two: Week 12

We came crashing back to Earth this week

NCAA Football: Stanford at Oregon State Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

Our incredible run of success to get back above .500 has come to a screeching halt after a terrible Week 11. We had just one win with our record on the week at 1-5. The good news? We’re still above .500 on the season! Just barely, however. At 46-45 we need to stay positive the rest of the year to manage a positive conclusion. As always, we are using DraftKings Sportsbook odds*. Hopefully this week we have a few more successful picks.

Central Michigan +11 at Ohio

NCAA Football: Iowa State at Ohio Matt Lunsford-USA TODAY Sports

I don’t know if I have y’all told y’all how much I love Midweek MACtion but it’s become a real passion of mine over the past few years. Having football to watch in the middle of the week was weird at first but I’m all in now. Central Michigan is coming off of a disappointing loss to Western Michigan and will be looking to bounce back with a win over Ohio to become bowl-eligible. I don’t think they find that win here but I do think they keep it close enough to cover.

SMU at Memphis Under 66.5

The American Athletic Conference has become a three-way race for the two championship spots. Tulane, SMU, and UTSA all sit at 6-0 in conference headed into the final two weeks of the season. Tulane and UTSA play each other meaning at least one of the two will have one loss while SMU’s biggest test comes this week against Memphis. If the Ponies lose, the three-horse race becomes a four-horse race with the Tigers inserting themselves. Memphis will want to make this a shootout, and SMU will hope to make it more of a defensive battle. I like the Mustangs defense to keep this one at a more grinding pace. Take the under here.

UNLV +3.0 at Air Force

NCAA Football: Colorado State at UNLV Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

It’s been an incredible season for UNLV as they have already reached eight wins on the year. The last time UNLV reached eight wins? 2000. Even if they didn’t manage to win the rest of the season, Barry Odom has to be happy with the instant progress. With that being said, UNLV has a shot to take the lead in the Mountain West outright with a victory over Air Force. I like UNLV to cover and win on Saturday. There is a real shot this UNLV squad gets to ten wins. The last time UNLV cleared that mark? 1984.

Georgia -10.5 at Tennessee

The Bulldogs demolished Ole Miss last week in Athens to the tune of a 52-17 victory. Tennessee suffered a crushing road defeat to Missouri, 36-7. I do like the Vols to hang tough for a while at home on Rocky Top but I think Georgia pulls away in the second half and wins by two touchdowns.

Kansas State at Kansas +8

NCAA Football: Texas Tech at Kansas Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

The Sunflower Showdown very nearly featured Big 12 title stakes in 2023 but with the Jayhawks loss to Texas Tech, Kansas is unlikely to find its way to Arlington. On the other hand, Kansas State could still find themselves in a rematch with Texas with a little help and by winning out. This is a bad stylistic matchup for Kansas and the injury bug doesn’t help their case but I think being able to play spoiler to their in-state rival might provide some extra motivation. I like the Jayhawks to keep this one close.

Washington at Oregon State Under 63.5

The game of the week, in my opinion, takes place in Corvallis, Oregon. The Beavers have an outside shot at the PAC-12 Championship but the real motivation to close out the season comes from the dissolution of the conference. The Beavers close out the season with this contest against Washington and the Civil War against Oregon. They will be playing with a massive chip on their shoulder in both contests. The physical brand of football the Beavers play should keep this game on the lower end of the scoring spectrum. I like the under.

Upset Special: Tulane at Florida Atlantic +300

NCAA Football: Tulsa at Tulane Matthew Dobbins-USA TODAY Sports

Tulane has had a habit of making games much closer than they needed to the entirety of the back half of the season. It just feels like one of these games, they are going to get clipped. A road trip to visit the Owls ahead of what could be a conference championship-deciding home game against UTSA feels like a trap game. Look for FAU to pull the upset in Boca.

What games are you most excited about in Week 12?

*Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See for details.