Arnold Against The Spread: Week 10

#FadeJay has officially come to an end.

By Jay Arnold Nov 1, 2023, 8:43am CDT

Fantastic news team, we have done it! After a 5-3 Week 9, our record on the season is 39-37. We’re above .500 after pulling off an incredible comeback. Let’s see if we can keep the momentum going as we enter the late stages of the season. As always, the odds* come courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook. This blog doesn’t constitute financial advice.

Buffalo at Toledo Under 49.5

Though we’ve been treated to midweek CUSA for most of the season, we’ve finally arrived at November - the time when the originators of the midweek college football action shine. Midweek MACtion has returned and we have a pair of contests tonight. Northern Illinois and Central Michigan battle for second in the MAC West while West leader Toledo takes on Buffalo. We’re focusing on the latter contest and taking the under here.

South Alabama at Troy -5

Thursday night features a big-time matchup in the Sun Belt between two physical, hard-hitting squads. Though South Alabama hasn’t had a football team for long, the rivalry with Troy on the gridiron has been an almost instant development. With both teams competing for the Sun Belt West title last year in a tight contest that ended 10-6, it feels like the intensity in this series has increased. However, I think South Alabama has taken a step back in 2023 while Troy looks dominant. I like the Trojans to cover.

Notre Dame -3 at Clemson

Sam Hartman and the Fighting Irish just absolutely dismantled Pittsburgh 58-7. It feels like Notre Dame is hitting their stride. Meanwhile, Clemson finds themselves at 2-4 in the ACC and on a two-game skid. This line feels a little weird to me and it wouldn’t surprise me if Clemson pulled the upset at home but man, given the current state of both programs I have to take Notre Dame to cover.

UTSA at North Texas Over 71

The game I’ll be attending this weekend in Denton is a rivalry matchup featuring two teams that competed for the CUSA championship last year. This year, both programs have made the transition to the American Athletic Conference. It should be a high-scoring shootout as hinted at by the over. And personally, I can’t resist taking an over when it’s this high. Hammer it.

Missouri +15.5 at Georgia

Mizzou has surprised a ton of folks this year by getting off to a 7-1 start with the lone defeat coming against LSU. I think they suffer defeat number two of the season this weekend against Georgia but I like the Missouri defense to keep this one slightly competitive. The Tigers come through in the 4th quarter with the backdoor cover. It should be a fun matchup in the SEC that’s flying a little under the radar given the focus on another SEC matchup.

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State Under 62

The final Bedlam game in the Big 12 and for the foreseeable future sees the Oklahoma Sooners head to what I imagine will be one of the most hostile versions of Stillwater in the history of this contest. The rivalry gets an added layer of bitterness given the OU departure for the SEC. While you would think of this game as a bit of a shootout, I’m actually thinking this contest will be a low-scoring affair. It’s a bummer to lose this rivalry but I’ve a feeling it goes out (temporarily at least) with a bang.

Washington at USC Over 76

Everything I said above about the UTSA and UNT over also applies to this matchup. Add to that the fact that USC’s defense has yet to show the ability to slow down anyone and I think we could have a record-setting type of offensive shootout between Michael Penix Jr. and Caleb Williams. This one ought to be one of the most exciting contests of 2023 as these two squads trade scores back and forth. Hammer the over.

UCLA at Arizona +2.5

I’m a huge fan of what Jedd Fisch has done at Arizona and this season feels like a culmination of his efforts. This Arizona squad has now knocked off two ranked opponents in row after defeating Washington State and Oregon State in back-to-back weeks. I like the Wildcats to win their third straight when they host UCLA in PAC-12 after-dark action but I’m taking Zona +2.5 here.

LSU +3 at Alabama

I’ve argued with myself all morning about this and I’ll probably change my mind again. However, at the time of writing this, I’ve decided to go with LSU +3. The Tide will undoubtedly be out for revenge after the Tigers knocked off Alabama last year and you can bet BDS will be rocking and rowdy. However, I think LSU keeps this one extremely close. I’m thinking a one-point victory for the Tide that allows LSU to cover.

Upset Special: Jacksonville State +550 at South Carolina

South Carolina has absolutely no business losing to Jacksonville State but I worry the disheartened Shane Beamer-led squad may have some troubles against Jax State in this Battle of the Gamecocks. Admittedly, I also wanted to include this contest given the two universities share the same mascot. A mascot that leads to immature jokes. Look for Jacksonville State to make this one competitive in Columbia, SC.

It’s a big week in college football, what games have captured your interest in Week 10?

*Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See http://draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.