It was an ugly week for the inaugural edition of Arnold Against The Spread with only the Arkansas Razorbacks managing to come through for me. I am looking to rebound after my abysmal 1-6 start to the season by looking at the lines and odds for Week 2 and giving my best bets. All odds and lines are according to DraftKings Sportsbook*. If things do not improve in Week 2, we are looking at adopting #FadeJay2022 as the official tagline for the season. Once again, this blog does NOT constitute financial advice.
Alabama at Texas (Over 65.5)
I’m staying away from the spread in this game as I am not sure what version of Texas we will see on Saturday. I know Sark will have the Horns up for this one regardless of what he says about this contest not having any bearing on winning the Big 12. I think Texas hangs with the Tide for at least a half due to sheer talent at the skill positions but Alabama will run away with it in the second half. I see a 56-28 type of score and that should be enough for this over to hit.
Southern Miss at Miami (-25)
If Texas A&M fans tune into their week three opponent’s game on Saturday, I wouldn’t expect to be able to draw too many conclusions. Miami hosts Southern Miss and while USM is a hard-nosed football team, their lack of a passing attack makes me think this one has the potential to turn into a blowout early. I expect the Hurricanes to score early and often.
Duke at Northwestern (Under 58.5)
Former Texas A&M Defensive Coordinator Mike Elko began his head coaching career with a shutout victory over the Temple Owls in week one. I expect the Blue Devils be a very solid defensive team with Elko at the helm and that trend should continue against Northwestern in week two. On the flip side, while the Wildcats were able to establish an offensive presence against Nebraska in Dublin back in zero week, I’d expect a bit of regression here against a defense that should be tougher. This leads me to believe we are in for a defensive battle that should favor the under.
Iowa State at Iowa (Under 40)
This past Saturday I watched Iowa beat South Dakota State 7-3. Iowa’s points came courtesy of a field goal and two safeties. I have no other notes on this contest, take the under.
Houston (+3) at Texas Tech
If I wasn’t a coward I’d be taking Houston moneyline here, but I am so I’ll stick with Houston +3. The Coogs narrowly escaped the Alamodome with a win in week one but I was extremely high on that Roadrunners team and I honestly believe that UTSA receiving corps was more of a threat than what the Red Raiders will have on offense. This game is on the road so I am little worried about the hostile environment of Jones AT&T Stadium but I honestly feel like Houston may have faced a bigger challenge last week there as well. I’m taking Houston and wouldn’t be surprised if they walk away with the upset win as well.
Baylor (+130) at BYU
Yes, BYU are a good team. Yes, LaVell Edwards Stadium is a notoriously tough place to play, especially at night. However! This is still a very stout and well-coached Baylor team who I think should be more than capable of winning on the road. When you toss in the fact that top BYU receiving targets Gunner Romney and Puka Nacua are also banged up and questionable for this game between future Big 12 conference mates, I think the odds are clearly in Baylor’s favor and I love the value on the Bears moneyline.
Upset Special: UNLV (+390) at Cal
The gambling gods punished me for making my upset special of the week a team that was only +100 at the time of the blog. This week we head out west for a team that is a much bigger underdog. UNLV is a team that has been an after thought in the Mountain West for awhile now. I have them on my radar as someone who may take a big step forward as a program in 2022. That very well could start with an upset over a Cal team that I am not high on whatsoever.
*Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.