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Arnold Against the Spread: Week 11

Finally, a ray of hope in this terrible season of gambling

NCAA Football: Tulane at Tulsa Brett Rojo-USA TODAY Sports

After what has been an absolutely atrocious season of college football gambling, it was finally a great week for yours truly. We went 5-1 for our regular picks and also hit on our upset special, cashing on LSU +400. We still need a miracle to get back above .500 on the year but we’re closer to that goal sitting at 27-36. Let’s dive into the lines and odds according to DraftKings Sportsbook* and hopefully pick some winners. This blog still doesn’t constitute financial advice.

LSU (-3) at Arkansas

There is always a risk of a letdown game when a team pulls off a huge victory like the Tigers just did against Alabama. With that being said, I think this LSU squad has all the momentum in the world and has only improved as the season has progressed. I get what Vegas is thinking here, I just think the Hogs are reeling a little bit after a loss to Liberty and they won’t be able to slow down Jayden Daniels and LSU. Take the Tigers to cover.

Alabama at Ole Miss (+11.5)

When the lines opened this week I believe I saw Ole Miss at +13.5. There has been a lot of movement on this as bettors lose faith in Alabama. For his part, Lane Kiffin is playing the respect Bama at all costs card. I do think the Tide get back in the win column here - I just think it’s a close one. Take Ole Miss +11.5 and consider taking the over as well.

UCF at Tulane (over 54.5)

I have no real feel for how this game is going to go down in New Orleans. UCF has the better athletes, in my opion but this Tulane team has been executing well all season with the exception of their loss to Southern Miss. The Green Wave have been pretty stout defensively but I do think UCF and John Rhys Plumlee might turn this one into more of an offensive battle than Willie Fritz’s squad is used to seeing. I’m taking the points here and staying away from the spread. P.S. This is the matchup that College GameDay should be at.

Washington (+13.5) at Oregon

Oregon has looked like a real contender since suffering a blowout loss to Georgia early in the season. They are easily the favorite to take the PAC-12 title but I do think this Washington team is better than some give them credit for and will be able to hang around with Oregon enough to cover that massive 13.5 point spread. Oregon wins handily but I still like the Huskies +13.5.

TCU at Texas (-7)

I hope I am wrong about this one but I just think TCU’s success so far this season is unsustainable. The Horned Frogs have consistently battled from behind to win but I think that streak ends in Austin. While it’s tough to have faith in a Texas team that consistently lets teams back into the game in the second half but I think the Longhorns will be up for this challenge and will knock TCU from the ranks of the unbeaten while covering -7.

UNC at Wake Forest (over 77)

Neither one of these teams play a lot of defense. 77 is a ridiculous amount of points but I can’t help myself here. I am absolutely hammering the over in hopes of a ton of passing yards from both Sam Hartman and Drake Maye.

Upset Special: Rice (+410) at Western Kentucky

Western Kentucky is one of the stronger teams in Conference USA so it’s no wonder the Hilltoppers are double-digit favorites at home against Rice. The Owls did suffer a shocking loss against a bad Charlotte squad but I think they have a real shot to pull off the upset on the road at WKU. If TJ McMahon and company can keep from turning the ball over, it’ll be a shootout in Kentucky and I love the value of the Owls +410.

What are your locks for Week 11? Let us know in the comments.

*Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See for details.