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Arnold Against The Spread: Week 13

Like Icarus flying too close to the sun, I have come crashing back down to Earth

NCAA Football: Mississippi at Mississippi State Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

After a stretch of two straight positive weeks, Week 12 destroyed all hopes of possibly getting back above .500. I went 1-5 and am now sitting at 32-43 with the final week of the regular season upon us. I suppose I could rally if we included conference championship week but who is to say. The odds and lines are according to DraftKings Sportsbook*. May they be ever in your favor.

Mississippi State at Ole Miss -2.5

As rumors swirl surrounding whether or not Lane Kiffin will remain head coach at Ole Miss or if he will take the job at Auburn, this line has seen some serious movement dropping from -5 upon opening to -2.5. The uncertainty surrounding the future of the program as well as how Ole Miss looked last week against Arkansas probably have a lot to do with it. With that being said, I actually think Ole Miss will come into this contest locked in as the Egg Bowl is always heated. I like Ole Miss to cover, especially with the spread dropping to 2.5.

Tulane at Cincinnati Under 46.5

I bet against Tulane last week. I will not make that mistake again. Both the Green Wave and Cincinnati play fundamentally sound defense for the most part and I expect this to be a low-scoring affair Friday morning at Nippert. Look for about a 20-17 final score. I might even sprinkle a little money on Tulane +110 but for now, I’m just taking the under.

Nebraska at Iowa Under 38.5

Iowa was the only team that netted me a betting victory last week and I’m going back to the Hawkeyes defense once more. The Hawkeyes would seal a Big Ten Championship appearance with a victory in Kinnick Stadium. The only thing that worries me is that Nebraska might turnover the ball so much that Iowa actually scores points at a decent clip. Otherwise, it will be another low-scoring Iowa victory where the under hits easily.

Florida +9.5 at Florida State

I realize that Florida is coming off a loss to Vanderbilt but 9.5 points feels like a lot in a rivalry contest that the Gators haven’t lost in three straight meetings. Florida State is much improved this season and I do think they get back in the win column against the Gators here but I also think it’s going to be a close one at Doak. I like Florida +9.5.

Michigan at Ohio State -7.5

Michigan is a solid football team in 2022 and I do think they’ll present some issues for the Buckeyes to deal with but after getting physically manhandled in Ann Arbor last year, I think Ohio State will be out for blood. Columbus is going to be electric as this matchup likely determines who will represent the Big Ten in the Playoffs. I think the speed of Ohio State will prove too much for Michigan to handle as the Buckeyes pull away early and Michigan just won’t be able to get back in this one.

Washington -2 at Washington State

The Apple Cup is one of the more underrated rivalries of rivalry week in my humble opinion. This year, we get an extra special Pac-12 after dark version in Pullman where a resurgent Washington program will look to get to ten wins against a tough Washington State squad. It isn’t going to be easy for the Huskies but I do think they win by a field goal at Martin Stadium and cover -2.

Louisville at Kentucky Under 43

Normally I’d stop at six bets but as this is rivalry week, I can’t help but talk about a few more contest starting with Louisville at Kentucky. Louisville is playing solid football here at the end of the season after what was a rough start to the year for the Cardinals. Scott Satterfield’s squad heads to Lexington ranked 25th and will look to put a stamp on the end of this season by taking down the in-state rival Wildcats. I’m expecting this to be a bit of a plodding affair at Kroger Field and as such, I’m taking the under.

Oregon -3 at Oregon State

Another Pacific Northwest rivalry that perhaps flies a bit under the radar, the animosity between Oregon and Oregon State is tangible as shown by this game formerly being referred to as the Civil War. These two teams come into this contest with both ranked for the first time since 2012. Oregon is eyeing a Pac-12 championship spot while the Beavers could play spoiler. While I do think Oregon State is a very tough team this year and they have been fantastic at home in Corvallis, I just think Oregon is too much and I like the Ducks in this one -3.

Auburn +22 at Alabama

Look, Alabama is still one of the best teams in the country but there is no doubt this is a bit of a down year by their standards. While Auburn isn’t necessarily a good team in 2022, they have found a bit of energy after firing Bryan Harsin and giving Cadillac Williams the interim job. I don’t think Auburn comes close to beating Alabama on Saturday but I do think the Tigers keep it closer than expected. 22 is a lot of points after all.

Notre Dame +5.5 at USC

USC has already clinched an appearance in the Pac-12 but they will host Notre Dame on Saturday with a chance to take back the Jeweled Shillelagh for the first time since 2016. The Irish struggled mightily in the first half of the season with losses to Ohio State, Marshall, and a floundering Stanford squad. However, the Irish have improved since that last loss and had dominant victories over Syracuse and more impressively Clemson. I think the Irish keep it close in Los Angeles and I like Notre Dame +5.5.

Kansas at Kansas State -11.5

Kansas has had a fantastic year after more than a decade of struggle in Lawrence. They have signed Lance Leipold to a new deal and I’d expect that to give the Jayhawks more stability than they’ve had in awhile. However, Kansas State secures a Big-12 Championship appearance with a victory over their in-state rival here and as much as I’d love to see Kansas get a victory in Manhattan, I just think the Wildcats roll. I’m expecting Kansas State to cover -11.5.

Upset Special of the Week: South Carolina +470 at Clemson

Shane Beamer has worked wonders in Columbia as shown by the Gamecocks massive and dominant upset win over Tennessee last week. I think they have a pretty good shot of pulling off another upset when they head to Clemson to close out the regular season this week. The Tigers have shown vulnerabilities this year and while it isn’t likely South Carolina pulls the upset, I love the amount of momentum they have going into this one and love the value at +470 for a little moneyline sprinkle.

What rivalry week games are you most excited about? Let us know in the comments.

*Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See for details.