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Arnold Against the Spread: Week 10

Operation #FadeJay is in full effect

NCAA Football: Mississippi at Louisiana State Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

After last week’s terrible gambling performance, I have to tell you I think it is time to start fading all of my picks. This college football season has absolutely shredded any ounce of college football gambling knowledge I may have assumed I had after 2021. After going just 1-5 last week, the record for picks in 2022 is now 22-35. Nothing short of a divine act on the lines this week will get me back above .500. All odds and lines are according to DraftKings Sportsbook*. This blog doesn’t constitute anything even close to financial advice.

Texas Tech at TCU (-8)

I firmly believe that TCU under Sonny Dykes has made themselves into a playoff contender this year. The Horned Frogs did have their struggles defensively against West Virginia and Kansas but their offense is very impressive and I think it will carry them all the way to the Big 12 Title. I expect them to put on a dominant showing at home against Texas Tech.

Iowa (+4.5) at Purdue

The Iowa under has bitten me two weeks in a row. This week I am taking the Hawkeyes to cover on the road against Purdue instead. It’s probably not a wise choice as both of these teams are a bit of an enigma where you don’t really know which version you are going to get but I actually think Iowa is trending in the right direction and I expect the Hawkeyes to keep this within a field goal.

Minnesota at Nebraska (+16)

The Gophers looked to have a real shot in the Big Ten West as Wisconsin and Iowa both struggled in 2022 so far. However, Minnesota wasn’t able to capitalize and it’s actually been Illinois who has taken the lead in the division. At 2-3 in conference play, I still think the Gophers are a decent team - just not good enough to cover the 16 points spread they’ll have when they go down to Lincoln to take on Nebraska.

Tennessee at Georgia (over 66)

I don’t have a good feel for how this meeting between Tennessee and Georgia is going to play out when the Volunteers make their way down to Athens so instead of picking the spread, I’m taking the points here. Georgia would prefer a more methodical pace but I really think the Vols will be able to push the Bulldogs to their limit and a lot of points will be scored by both teams. I’m taking the over.

Clemson at Notre Dame (+3.5)

Clemson has been playing with fire and letting teams hang around with them all year when they have chances to put games away. I think that may come back to bite them this week in South Bend. I like the Irish to cover and I just might sprinkle a bit of money on them to win outright.

Texas at Kansas State (over 54.5)

Kansas State is a tough defensive squad but I believe the weapons the Horns have offensively will still be able to put up points. Combine that with a Kansas State team coming into this one with a lot of momentum and I think this contest trends more towards shootout then defensive battle. 54.5 isn’t a lot of points and I think these two teams crush that over.

Upset Special of the Week: Alabama at LSU (+400)

All I’ve seen online for this one is how LSU doesn’t deserve to be in the top ten and how Alabama is going to take care of business. I understand Alabama being favored but +400 is a great value pick here considering this game is being played on a Saturday night in Death Valley. Alabama is still a very talented team but something about the Tide just feels more flawed than normal this year. Add to that the fact that you can gurantee this crowd is going to be a factor and I think LSU has a very good chance of pulling off the upset in Baton Rouge.

What are your locks for Week 10? Let us know in the comments.

*Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See for details.