clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Arnold Against the Spread: Week 8

The endless quest to get above .500 continues

Syndication: Gator Sports Doug Engle / USA TODAY NETWORK

As we cross the threshold into the back half of the season, we have yet another week of .500 gambling picks. The good news is that while we were 3-3 in our normal picks, our upset special of Georgia Southern over James Madison did hit at +310! We’ll look to ride that momentum to a better week of gambling this week to try and improve on our 18-24 record. All odds and lines are according to DraftKings Sportsbook*. As always, this blog does not constitute financial advice.

Iowa at Ohio State (Under 49.5)

The first rule of gambling Iowa and Service Academy football holds true here - always take the under. While I’d love to see Iowa pull off the upset personally, I just don’t think their offense will score against Ohio State in Columbus. I’m expecting the Hawkeye defense to limit the Buckeyes just enough for a score like 31-10 in favor of Ohio State.

Kansas (+7.5) at Baylor

I get the thought process here by Vegas. The Jayhawks still don’t have Jalon Daniels back yet but I just think they’ll be able to keep this one within a touchdown. If the spread drops below 7, I’d stay away but at 7.5 I think Kansas can cover even on the road in Waco. Especially with a Baylor squad that is likely disappointed in the trajectory of their season after a lot of preseason hype.

Cincinnati (-3) at SMU

Tanner Mordecai and this SMU offense are capable of giving anyone problems but Cincinnati is still the top dog in the American Athletic Conference and coming off of a somewhat disappointing win over USF, I’m expecting a bounce back performance for the Bearcats. A two-score victory makes sense which is why I think Cincy -3 is an easy cover.

Texas at Oklahoma State (+6.5)

The Big 12 this year has been infinitely entertaining and the race for the title is still very much up for grabs. After jumping out to an early lead against TCU, Oklahoma State would fall to the Horned Frogs in double overtime. Meanwhile, down in Austin the Longhorns struggled with Iowa State. I’m fully expecting this contest to be a close one even if the Pokes starting QB Spencer Sanders is a little banged up. I’m taking Oklahoma State +6.5.

Ole Miss at LSU (-2)

Ole Miss is quietly off to a 7-0 start and has risen to 7th in the nation according to AP voters. Lane Kiffin’s squad had their biggest test of the season when they hosted Kentucky but a road trip to Death Valley is always a tough game. The Bayou Bengals are 5-2 in Brian Kelly’s first season in Baton Rouge and I suspect they are better than some may give them credit for. I will be in attendance for this one and think the Tigers cover at home.

UCLA at Oregon (Over 70)

70 is a crazy amount of points for a college football game but life is too short to bet the under (unless you are talking Iowa). Both teams are regularly scoring 40 or more points so this has the necessary ingredients for a real shootout. These two teams could very well end the season atop the PAC-12 so this should be a fantastic contest - while I like Oregon +6, I think the over is the safer bet.

Upset Special of the Week: Mississippi State (+850) at Alabama

Of the Upset Special’s I’ve picked so far this season, this one is probably the most ridiculous. I’m 100% ready to admit that this is a dumb choice and I have no business taking the Bulldogs here - HOWEVER - all week I’ve heard nothing but how Mississippi State is going to get crushed with Bama coming off of a loss. I can’t help but sprinkle a little money on MSU here just because of the sheer lack of belief and the fact that the Tide have looked vulnerable for two straight weeks.

Give us your lock of the week in the comments!

*Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See for details.