Class of '11 here. Like most of you, I am pretty dang salty about the game yesterday and really the season as a whole. While I've been a GBH follower for many years, I never posted anything until today. My BAS has finally gotten the better of me and I went on an Aggie Football data binge which I feel compelled to share with you.
That being said, as the subject line states, I believe Jimbo is merely Kevin Sumlin pt. 2. Statistically, most of the data that I pulled backs that up. Something I was pondering after the atrocious loss yesterday to LSU was the phrase we keep hearing "trust the process." After the game, I couldn't help but wonder, "what process are we trusting?" Are we trusting the process of high recruiting classes and under performance? Are we trusting the process of poor play calling when the chips are down? Are we trusting that somehow, someway, Jimbo will pull a Jim Harbaugh 7 years into his career in Aggieland and go 11-1 and make it to the SEC Championship? Never mind the fact that, assuming OU/tu transfer over for next season we will likely start playing perennial powerhouse OU as well.
If all this seems pretty despondent, it's because it is. Let me clarify one thing before I continue. I have always rooted for the Aggies. I will ALWAYS root for the Aggies. But I believe a bit of realism is necessary. Frankly this is probably more cathartic than anything else, but stick with me.
Here is the data I pulled (yes, I slightly stole GBH formatting while doing so. Forgive my un-originality).
|Jimbo Fisher||Kevin Sumlin|
|Overall Record Year 1||9-4||11-2||Sumlin|
|Overall Record Year 2||8-5||9-4||Sumlin|
|Overall Record Year 3||9-1||8-5||Fisher|
|Overall Record Year 4||8-4||8-5||Push|
|Record thru 4 Years||34-14 (.708)||36-16 (.692)||Push|
|Conference Record Year 1||5-3||6-2||Sumlin|
|Conference Record Year 2||4-4||4-4||Push|
|Conference Record Year 3||8-1||3-5||Fisher|
|Conference Record Year 4||4-4||4-4||Push|
|Conf. Record Thru 4 Yrs||21-12 (.636)||17-15 (.531)||Fisher|
|Highest Ranking Thru 4 Yrs||5th||5th||Push|
|High Conf. Rank Thru 4 Yrs||2nd||2nd||Push|
|Bowl Record Thru 4 Yrs||3-0*||4-1||Push|
|Recruiting Class Ranking Yr 1||4th (2019)||9th (2013)||Fisher|
|Recruiting Class Ranking Yr 2||6th (2020)||5th (2014)||Sumlin|
|Recruiting Class Ranking Yr 3||8th (2021)||11th (2015)||Fisher|
|Recruiting Class Ranking Yr 4||3rd (2022)*||18th (2016)||Fisher|
|QB Yr 1||Kellen Mond||Johnny Manziel|
|QB Yr 2||Kellen Mond||Johnny Manziel|
|QB Yr 3||Kellen Mond||Kenny Hill/Kyle Allen|
|QB Yr 4||HK/ZC||Kyle Allen/Kyler Murray/Jake Hubenak|
|QB Yr 5||Trevor Knight|
|QB Yr 6||Kellen Mond|
|Points For/Game Rnk Yr 1||36.0 (19th)||44.5 (4th)||Sumlin|
|Points For/Game Rnk Yr 2||29.5 (62nd)||44.2 (5th)||Sumlin|
|Points For/Game Rnk Yr 3||32.6 (37th)||35.2 (28th)||Sumlin|
|Points For/Game Rnk Yr 4||29.3 (61st)||27.8 (71st)||Fisher|
|Pts Against/Game Rnk Yr 1||25.3 (47th)||21.8 (26th)||Sumlin|
|Pts Against/Game Rnk Yr 2||22.5 (38th)||32.2 (96th)||Fisher|
|Pts Against/Game Rnk Yr 3||21.7 (28th)||28.1 (78th)||Fisher|
|Pts Against/Game Rnk Yr 4||15.9 (4th)||22.0 (28th)||Fisher|
|SRS/SOS Rnk Yr 1||13.61 (11th)/7.14 (1st)||20.05 (3rd)/ 5.13 (20th)|
|SRS/SOS Rnk Yr 2||10.02 (26th)/5.09 (13th)||13.38 (19th)/5.07 (22nd)|
|SRS/SOS Rnk Yr 3||16.24 (9th)/6.44 (22nd)||9.96 (29th)/5.72 (12th)|
|SRS/SOS Rnk Yr 4||11.41 (17th)/1.91 (46th)||9.40 (30th)/4.47 (21st)|
Outside of recruiting classes, Fisher and Sumlin after four years pretty much line up the same. Frankly in some ways I think Sumlin outperformed Fisher.
I included the QBs for all six years under Sumlin because I wanted to highlight something. Fisher had Sumlin's QB for 3 years. Sumlin had Sherman's QB for 2 years. Sumlin mismanaged several QBs and yet still was able to pull out essentially the same record as Fisher over the same time period. Sumlin's offenses were vastly superior to Fisher's. Fisher's defense haven't been THAT much better than Sumlin's until this year. Now, we can quibble over the stats that I pulled to measure quality of offense and defense. That's fine. I wasn't willing to dig much deeper than this so if you want to do more digging feel free. At the end of the day, I don't really see much of a "process difference" in the Sumlin Aggies and the Fisher Aggies. The hype may be different. We're given the benefit of the doubt by the polls more with Fisher. But the performance has essentially been equal.
So, all that being said, with an ungodly contract and Fisher double and tripling down on "I'm staying in Aggieland", there isn't much of a "where do we go from here" discussion to be had at this point. I do wonder how much of a leash Fisher is given next year. He claims he's building something special. He's been claiming that for several years with no real results-based proof. Perhaps I'll be proven wrong next year and you can all come back and trash me in hindsight. That's fine. I hope that's the case. But the reality is, through 4 years, we've thrown money around and gotten very little back in return other than crushed hopes and dreams.
Here's to a little more BAS and a lot more rooting for our boys. Have a great Christmas! BTHO bowl game and recruiting.
***NOTE: All the data was pulled from Jimbo and Sumlin's wikipedia pages as well as sports-reference.com.