Place: Reed Arena
TV: SEC Network
Line: Alabama is favored by 1.5
Advanced Metrics via KenPom: Texas A&M has a 49% chance to win
Results of Note
Alabama is 2-3 in their last five games, with wins over the two worst teams in the SEC (Georgia and Vanderbilt) and blowout losses to everybody else (Auburn, Florida, and MSU).
They DO have some legitimately good results… but they’ve all come at home. Their road games have generally been bad news unless they’re playing someone awful, and we haven’t been THAT awful lately.
Oh, and six weeks ago, TJ Starks ripped their hearts out with a 30 foot buzzer beater.
Things to Watch
To be honest, this team isn’t disciplined. They tend to win games with talent, rather than teamwork, which has exposed them during the latter half of conference play. When you add that to their road record, I can understand why the advanced metrics think we can pull this off.
But on the flip side… Alabama HAS to have this game. They’re firmly rooted on the bubble, and a season sweep by Texas A&M would put them in bad, bad shape. We’re going to face a highly motivated crew that seems unlikely to underestimate us a second time.
With the exception of our March 2nd tilt against Vanderbilt and our likely opening night game in the SEC Tournament, every remaining game will have the same theme: Our opponents have something to play for, and we don’t. To that end, there’s a lot we can learn in the last three weeks.