Place: Exactech Arena (Gainesville, FL)
TV: SEC Network
Line: Florida by 11
Advanced Metrics via KenPom: Texas A&M has an 11% chance to win
I’m no lifer, but I’ve been at this for a good while now. And I can safely say that we’re coming off the worst week of Aggie Basketball since we’ve joined the SEC.
The only analysis here stems from one question: Can we turn it around?
If we bring anything resembling last week’s nonsense on the road tonight, we’ll get run out of the gym. If we get it together... well, we’ve still got an uphill battle ahead of us.
Results of Note
The Gators are 2-3 in the SEC, with wins over Arkansas (away) and Georgia (away), and losses against South Carolina (home), Tennessee (home), and Mississippi State (away). Their overall record (10-7) may be deceiving, but don’t let that fool you - their non-conference slate was absolutely loaded, and they won their fair share.
It’s probably fair to compare this team to last year’s Texas A&M squad, as their high loss numbers seem unlikely to keep them from the tournament.
Things to Watch
Florida’s defense is stifling.
Their steal and block metrics are very good, their turnover margin is off the charts, and their defensive adjusted efficiency (which blends just about everything together) is good for 7th in the nation.
They also play slow. Slowwwwwww.
Their deliberate pace yields 64 possessions per game, good for slowest in the SEC and 9th slowest in the nation. They grind things out offensively, they rebound well, and they get back and get set defensively, where they feel quite comfortable that you aren’t going to get a very good look.
Meanwhile, we’re derping around and throwing offensive ineptitude at the wall at a rate currently not seen since the Melvin Watkins era.
So this should be fun.
If we play the way we played last week, we’ll get rolled to a comical extent.
If we find our effort again, there’s a chance we keep this one close… but we need chaos to get points, and Florida seems hell bent on not allowing chaos. Unless it’s the chaos they create.
Official advice: Watch this one with a remote in hand, a beer within arm’s reach, and some alternative programming on standby.