FanPost

Fun With Numbers: Previewing the Gator Bowl

Welcome back to Fun With Numbers, the Fan Post where we use numbers from the S&P+ and FEI to make predictions and eventually learn that the real advanced stats were the friends we made along the way. We’re previewing the Gator Bowl this week, trying to get a better read on the NC State Wolfpack and also make sure we understand exactly what Jimbo has done with this team in Year 1. If you’re new here, go ahead and pop this glossary open in another tab, so you can refer to it for some terms that may be unfamiliar to you.

How’d We Do Last Week?

I could do a whole post on the LSU game, both from a statistical standpoint and from the point of view of a regular fan who drank too much during regulation and therefore had to keep on drinking through 7 damn overtimes, oh and also it’s the holidays so you’re doing all this in your in-laws’ living room as your wife watches in horror even though she knew damn well what she was marrying so really it’s her fault if you think about it. This game was fun, and stupid, and lucky, and amazing, and you can view the advanced stats box score here to relive some of it.

It’s been a few weeks since that game though, and I don’t want to take up too much time here, so I’ll just direct you guys to this story by Bill Connelly that took an unbiased approach to look at the game and all its craziness.


What Do We Know?

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Alright, so the Ags are going bowling in Florida against an ACC opponent. This is the first time the Aggies have played in the Gator Bowl since 1957 and man, I do not recommend checking out that box score. They take on the NC State Wolfpack, who finished the season 9-3, came in 3rd in their division, and finished unranked in the final CFP poll. After losing a boatload of talent last year to the NFL draft, NC State managed to rip off 5 wins to start the season before dropping 3 of the next 4 games (Clemson, Syracuse, and Wake Forest), then finishing out the season strong (against fairly weak competition). They ended up going 1-2 against Top 50 FEI Teams (the Ags went 3-4), and the S&P+ gives them a SoS ranking of 71 (Ags checked in at 3).


Vegas has the Ags at a 5 point favorite, and the S&P+ picks us to win by 3 points. We see that the Ags finished higher in the three overall metrics, so let’s take a closer look at some of the matchups. You can also check out both teams stat profiles here.


Aggie Offense vs Wolfpack Defense

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We’ve all seen this Aggie offense this season, it’s shaky at times (When Mond and his receivers aren’t clicking, against dominant Front 7’s where the run game stalls, etc.) but when it’s moving (Clemson, South Carolina, Kentucky, etc.) it’s something else. It will likely finish as the best offense we’ve seen (by OFEI and OS&P+ rankings) since 2014 after Johnny left town and Spav took the reigns (Insert your "Worst trade deal in history" Trump gif here). It’s efficient, both on the ground and through the air, and while it’s not crazy explosive, Mond (6.78 Highlight Yards/Opportunity, -.01 Marginal Explosiveness) and Williams (5.87 HY/Opp., -.01 Marg. Exp.) can create explosiveness on the ground and Sternberger (62.7% Catch Rate, .57 Marg. Exp.) is far more capable of generating big plays than you would expect out of a TE his size.


Get out your "Spider-mans (Spider-men?) pointing at each other" pictures, because this is a defense that should look somewhat familiar to Aggie fans. It starts up front with a good DL that ranks 14th in Opportunity Rate, 33rd in Sack Rate, and 10th in DL Havoc. From there, it kind of falls apart. They’re already thin at LB, and with arguably their best defender Pratt sitting out, the middle of the field starts opening up a little bit. It’s topped off with a somewhat experienced secondary that has really struggled at defending the pass this season, and the defense as a whole is very susceptible to big plays. They are decent at Finishing Drives, holding teams to 4.1 Points/Scoring Opportunity (35th in the country) and rank 23rd in Overall Havoc.


So we have a defense that is good, but not great, with weaknesses that the Aggies can certainly take advantage of. I believe Ausbon coming back has been huge for this offense, Mond’s Passing Efficiency against Mississippi State and Auburn was 27% and 35%, and 59%, 50%, and 40% in the last 3 games. Granted two of those came against week competition (Ole Miss and UAB), but 40% against a Top 5 Passing DS&P+ LSU secondary is nothing to sneeze at (The only team to do better than that this season against them was Auburn). My point is, Mond has really improved after a brutal meltdown against Auburn, and I think a large part of that can be attributed to having another safety net in Ausbon. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Ags struggle to run the ball with Trayveon early on, but we’ve seen that an efficient passing attack mixed in with a heavy dose of run plays from Mond can really open things up in the ground game. There’s a lot of maroon in that chart, and I really like our chances with Jimbo and Dickey having plenty of time to prepare.


Aggie Defense vs Wolfpack Offense

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It’s definitely been a year of improvement under Mike Elko, even if it has come with its struggles. The Aggies sit just outside the Top 40 in the DS&P+ after falling into the 70s in 2017, and have done it with one of the best run defenses in the country paired up with one of the worst secondaries. The DL ranks 12th in Opportunity Rate, 16th in Sack Rate, and 14th in Havoc Rate (The whole defense ranks 9th overall). This defense is good, and against teams without a passing threat (Hello, Kentucky!), they can emerge as dominant. Unfortunately…


You could say that Ryan Finley is a bit of a passing threat. Pretty highly regarded coming into the season, with "draft experts" labeling him the #1 QB to be taken in the draft this year, he’s done little to lower anyone’s opinion of him. He’s been efficient (his 10.9% Marginal Efficiency is better than any QB we’ve faced this season not named Tua) and has had the benefit of an OL that may struggle in the run game (128th in Opportunity Rate), but does a solid job of protecting the pocket (3rd in Sack Rate). The good news (for the Aggies anyway) is that Finley’s top receiver, Kelvin Harmon, will not be playing in his final game at North Carolina State. That leaves Jakobie Meyers and Emeka Emezie as the next men up, two guys with great catch rates (77% and 67%) and Marginal Efficiency numbers, but who lack the explosive threat that Harmon brings to the field.


I don’t like this matchup nearly as much as I do the one just above it. Like the Aggies have done all season, they should have no problem forcing NC State into throwing situations by making them one dimensional and taking away the run game. Still, the almost surgical level of efficiency that Finley brings worries me, especially knowing how tough it will be to get pressure on him. They move almost as slowly as the Ags do (101st in Adjusted Pace), and I worry about our defense getting gassed if they’re not getting off the field from making stops or giving up touchdowns in one play (only slightly joking). I do however like what we’ve seen from Elko this year in terms of interesting coverages and finding ways to bring pressure from the secondary, even if his last matchup against NC State (at Wake Forest) didn’t go so well.


Special Teams

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It’s been the same story almost all season, the Aggies are great at punting and kickoffs, average at kick returns and field goals, and bad at punt returns. So they took a little bit of a step back in the ST S&P+ ranking and a HUGE jump in the ST FEI (18th and 44th in 2017). That’s pretty impressive, I’m sure a lot of people expected worse when Kirk, Tripucka (remember him? He helped the Aggies land a measly 2nd in Punt Efficiency in 2017), and Coach Banks left town, and combined with the fact that fish kicker Seth Small would be handling most of the FG duty this season.


They face a perfectly fine Special Teams unit from North Carolina State, led by a good punting and return game and a freshman kicker hitting 87.5% on his field goals. Both their offense and defense are used to having good starting field position, so we’ll want to see Mann starting off his 2019 Ray Guy award campaign right and have no mistakes in the return game.



Anything the Numbers Don’t Tell Us?

This is not a brand new opponent for Jimbo, in fact he went 4-1 against the Wolfpack in his last 5 years at FSU. He is well acquainted with Doeren and Finley, but is he prepared for them?

Other than that, there isn’t a whole lot to note here. The Aggies have had one defection from their coaching staff (Thanks Brewster, The Station will always be LIT because of you), but no players announcing their decisions to sit out. NC State hasn’t been so lucky, with a couple of players we previously mentioned electing to end their playing careers one game early and an OC that took a head job at a G5 school. Wolfpack fans weren’t necessarily upset to see him go, so it will be interesting to see how their offense looks on NYE.


So What’s the Verdict?

I know the charts make it look like neither defense is going to be able to stop either offense, but I highly doubt we’re headed for a shootout. I think both offenses will be shaking off a little rust from the month off and from the coordinator change for the Pack. Despite Aggies shaking their head and hoping for a better bowl spot (We deserve more after needing 7 OTs to get to 8 wins dammit!), this is still a matchup with a 9 win team who absolutely should not be taken lightly. Losing a top receiver, linebacker, and your main play caller would disrupt any team though, so how do the Ags come back to College Station as a 9 win team?


Offensively, it starts and ends with Mond. With this impressive front from NC State, we likely won’t be able to just lean on the run game and grind it out. In all three of their losses this season (Clemson, Syracuse, and Wake Forest), the Pack were beaten by incredibly efficient passing attacks but were able to hold their opponents run game in check. Dungey (Syracuse) was particularly impressive, throwing for 400 yards and a 71% completion percentage, and also leading his team in rushing yards with 59. Mond doesn’t have to be THAT good, but a 45% Passing Success Rate in this game probably means we win. You’re probably going to see some sacks (they tallied 11 in their 3 losses, 35 on the season) but that is very much preferred to turnovers, which they only got 2 of in those three losses (18 total during the season). We also need to take care of business in the red zone. The Wolfpack defense has been pretty good at limiting teams to about 4 Points/Scoring Opportunity, but in the Syracuse and Wake Forest game it was well over 5.


Defensively, it’s all about removing the run game as an option and keeping everything in front of us.Wake Forest and Clemson did fantastic jobs of keeping the Wolfpack Explosiveness in check (Not so much for Syracuse, who ended up allowing 41 points) and all 3 teams dominated up front, allowing 36% Success Rate or less in the run game. Elko has proven time and time again he knows exactly how to force teams to be one dimensional and rely on their passing game, so the challenge will obviously be preventing big plays through the air. Finley has been sacked 9 times and thrown 9 picks all season, and 3 of those sacks and 4 of the INTs came in their 3 losses. What I’m saying is, it wouldn’t hurt if we could find a way to make Finley uncomfortable and put him on the ground a couple of times, and it definitely wouldn’t hurt to land one of those elusive turnovers we’ve seen so little of this season.


That’s it. Get Mond and his receivers clicking early, do the one thing that our secondary has struggled to do all season, and find a way to put pressure on Finley. Sounds simple enough right?


My Prediction: I like the Aggies chances in Jacksonville. NC State is good, and no doubt that their offensive strength pairs up poorly with our defense, but with a couple of key guys out and with the Ags playings so well to end the season… I’m gonna follow the S&P+. Ags win 31-27, but probably don’t cover.

Final Notes

As always, thanks for reading along, and Merry Christmas to Aggies and College Football fans everywhere, except for the people that tweet at recruits. I hope to be back in 2019, and will of course try to hibernate until August and avoid the gaping black hole of HOT TAEKS and "Way Too Early Ranking of PAC 12 Backup Safeties" Listicles that is the offseason. If you are interested in the world of advanced statistics, please check out these websites where all my data comes from.

FootballOutsiders.com for a solid compilation of all things related to football analytics.

Bcftoys.com for Brian Fremeau’s FEI data and other fun projects from him.

Footballstudyhall.com for S&P+ info and other articles presented by Bill C. and his crew.

Questions? Comments? Criticisms? You know where to leave ‘em. I’ll see you at the tailgate.

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