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ESPN model predicts 7.5 wins for Aggie Football in 2016

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Texas A&M v LSU Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) is a simulation-based, proprietary metric used to predict future team performance. Texas A&M ranks 14th overall and 6th in the SEC for the 2016 college football season. ESPN applied the FPI measure across the entire season’s schedule to predict individual game outcomes. Texas A&M’s schedule with predictions is shown below. The expected value for wins (sum of the probabilities) is 7.47. This aligns well with Las Vegas predictions for the Aggies with over/under totals hovering between 7 and 8.

DATE OPPONENT PROBABILITY OPP FPI (RK)
Sat, Sept 3
vs UCLA 60.60% 17.0 (12)
Sat, Sept 10
vs Prairie View 99.70% --
Sat, Sept 17
@ Auburn 45.00% 15.3 (17)
Sat, Sept 24
vs Arkansas* 62.70% 12.6 (25)
Sat, Oct 1
@ South Carolina 74.00% 4.8 (53)
Sat, Oct 8
vs Tennessee 40.70% 23.2 (5)
Sat, Oct 22
@ Alabama 27.50% 23.0 (6)
Sat, Oct 29
vs New Mexico State 98.80% -16.6 (121)
Sat, Nov 5
@ Mississippi State 57.20% 11.4 (31)
Sat, Nov 12
vs Ole Miss 49.40% 20.0 (7)
Sat, Nov 19
vs Texas San Antonio 98.70% -16.4 (120)
Thu, Nov 24
vs LSU 32.60% 25.6 (2)

As shown, the Aggies are expected to win 7 of their matchups based on individual game probabilities. Wins over UCLA, Prairie View A&M, Arkansas, South Carolina, New Mexico State, Mississippi State, and UTSA are predicted. The Aggies are also assigned a 1.9% chance of winning the SEC and a 0.1% chance of going undefeated.

How do your own expectations deviate from ESPN’s computer models? We GBH staffers made our season predictions earlier this week.