ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) is a simulation-based, proprietary metric used to predict future team performance. Texas A&M ranks 14th overall and 6th in the SEC for the 2016 college football season. ESPN applied the FPI measure across the entire season’s schedule to predict individual game outcomes. Texas A&M’s schedule with predictions is shown below. The expected value for wins (sum of the probabilities) is 7.47. This aligns well with Las Vegas predictions for the Aggies with over/under totals hovering between 7 and 8.
| DATE |
OPPONENT |
PROBABILITY |
OPP FPI (RK) |
|
vs UCLA |
60.60% |
17.0 (12) |
|
vs Prairie View |
99.70% |
-- |
|
@ Auburn |
45.00% |
15.3 (17) |
|
vs Arkansas* |
62.70% |
12.6 (25) |
|
@ South Carolina |
74.00% |
4.8 (53) |
|
vs Tennessee |
40.70% |
23.2 (5) |
|
@ Alabama |
27.50% |
23.0 (6) |
|
vs New Mexico State |
98.80% |
-16.6 (121) |
|
@ Mississippi State |
57.20% |
11.4 (31) |
|
vs Ole Miss |
49.40% |
20.0 (7) |
|
vs Texas San Antonio |
98.70% |
-16.4 (120) |
|
vs LSU |
32.60% |
25.6 (2) |
As shown, the Aggies are expected to win 7 of their matchups based on individual game probabilities. Wins over UCLA, Prairie View A&M, Arkansas, South Carolina, New Mexico State, Mississippi State, and UTSA are predicted. The Aggies are also assigned a 1.9% chance of winning the SEC and a 0.1% chance of going undefeated.
How do your own expectations deviate from ESPN’s computer models? We GBH staffers made our season predictions earlier this week.
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