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Thursday March 12th Bubble Watch

Championship Week heats up on Thursday with major bubble drama across the country.

Beth Hall-USA TODAY Sports

Updated Thursday Morning Night March 12th. Next Update: Friday Morning March 13th

Monday through Wednesday was the quiet before the storm. Sure there were a handful of mildly interesting results, Gonzaga and Wofford thankfully wrapped up auto bids while BYU did just enough to move themselves to the center of the bubble discussion, likely IN for now but sweating out the next couple of days. Other than that Wednesday saw the "Major" conferences start action with a couple bubble teams getting some must wins (Texas, Miami, Stanford) and others locking themselves up (NC State), but mainly the day just set the stage for what will certainly be a wild Thursday and Friday around the bubble. In case you missed it in Monday's BW my analysis of what Texas A&M needs to do in Nashville to get into the NCAA Tournament is as follows:

Go 0-1: 0% chance of an NCAA tourney bid
Go 1-1 (Beat Aub, lose to LSU): 5% chance for NCAAT
Go 2-1 (Beat LSU on Friday and lose to Alabama/Florida): 45%
Go 2-1 (Beat LSU on Friday and lose to Kentucky): 65%
Go 3-1 (Beat LSU & Alabama/Florida, lose in Finals): 95%
Go 3-1 (Beat LSU & Kentucky, lose in Finals): 100%
Go 4-0: 100%

Caveat: All percentages adjusted +/- 20% depending on how the rest of the teams ranked 60-75 do over the course of the next few days, for example if they all lose their next game that 65% looks a lot more like an 85%, if all of them go deep in their tourney's 65% may look more like 45% on Selection Sunday.

What has happened since the last update
Secured Auto Bid: Gonzaga, Wofford
Moved to the Lock Line: NC State
Eliminated from At Large Contention: None

That's now 27 teams fighting for 17 spots.

Moving up within the BW: None
Moving Down within the BW: None

We will look at the potential multiple bid conferences and then rank the teams 1-N. Once a team reaches "lock" status their "ranking" doesn't matter, it is just a placeholder to count how many spots are left. This is not a ranking of how good teams are or how much of a threat they are for a deep tourney run, it is a measure of if the season ended today based on past selection committee behavior, who is in and who is out and how relatively safe teams are.

Big Cincy win over Tulsa last week. Still all 3 bubble teams have a high degree of uncertainty with 1 week to go. 3 teams is likely.
Locks: SMU
Bubble: Temple, Cincinnati, Tulsa

Atlantic 10
VCU is doing the bubble no favors losing 3 straight to bubble teams has allowed Dayton to reach lock status, Richmond to be added to the watch and Davidson to move from out to IN.
Locks: Virginia Commonwealth, Dayton
Bubble: Rhode Island, Davidson, Richmond

6 bids vs. 7 may come down to Thursday night Miami vs. Notre Dame
Locks: Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, Louisville, Notre Dame, NC State
Bubble: Miami

Big 12
Half the league has been a lock since February. Oklahoma St. and Texas are trying to withstand late season slides, they both have a good chance to do just that.
Locks: Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa St., Baylor, West Virginia
Bubble: Oklahoma St., Texas

Big East
The league with the least bubble drama. Looks like 6 bids all the way here
Locks: Villanova, Butler, Providence, Georgetown, St. John's
Bubble: Xavier

Big 10
Iowa is the latest to join the lock party, still 3 more Big 10 teams with at least some level of uncertainty. 7 bids wouldn't shock anyone.
Locks: Wisconsin, Maryland, Ohio St., Michigan St., Iowa
Bubble: Indiana, Illinois, Purdue

Mountain West
All 3 MWC BW teams have played well the last month and look to be a good bet to be dancing.
Locks: San Diego St.
Bubble: Colorado St., Boise St.

Pac 12
Oregon has made a serious push to get in as the 3rd Pac 12 team. That may be where it stops.
Locks: Arizona, Utah
Bubble: UCLA, Stanford, Oregon

Arkansas becomes the 2nd lock in the SEC but figuring out who is the 3rd safest is anything but clear.
Locks: Kentucky, Arkansas
Bubble: Georgia, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, LSU

Missouri Valley Conference
The MVC gave us some bubble drama after all with Wichita St. going down in the semifinal and UNI having to rally from 18 down in the championship game in order to come back and take the Auto bid, leaving the rest of the bubble breathing a sigh of relief.
Auto Bid: Northern Iowa
Locks: Wichita St.
Bubble: None

West Coast Conference
Gonzaga thankfully secured the auto bid for the WCC to still have a chance to be a 1 bid league, BYU will be in the middle of some bubble drama to potentially be a 2nd team in.
Auto Bid: Gonzaga
Bubble: BYU

Conference USA
Too many losses for La Tech and UTEP to have realistic chances to get an at large. They are some decent profiles though that a loss in the Conference Tournament may not hurt too much.
Locks: None
Bubble: Old Dominion

Other Non-Power Conferences
In general this is an exceptionally weak year for the non-power conferences. As you look through the landscape it is entirely possible you can count on 1 hand the number of at large bids for small conferences. There are a few other teams (Wofford, Murray St., SFA) on the BW we will track in the below list to see if they can win their tournament or if they will be in the at large discussion

Conference listed indicates projected auto bid, team in bold equals auto bid winner

1. America East
2. American SMU
3. Atlantic 10 - Virginia Commonwealth
4. ACC Virginia
5. Atlantic Sun North Florida
6. Big Sky
7. Big 12 Kansas
8. Big East Villanova
9. Big 10 - Wisconsin
10. Big South Coastal Carolina
11. Big West
12. CAA Northeastern
13. Horizon Valparaiso
14. Ivy
15. MAAC Manhattan
16. MAC
17. MEAC
18. Missouri Valley Northern Iowa
19. Mountain West San Diego St.
20. NEC Robert Morris
21. OVC - Belmont
22. Pac 12 - Arizona
23. Patriot - Lafayette
24. Southland
25. Southern Wofford
26. SEC Kentucky
27. SWAC
28. Summit North Dakota St.
29. Sun Belt
30. West Coast Gonzaga
31. WAC
32. Duke
33. North Carolina
34. Louisville
35. Notre Dame
36. Oklahoma
37. Maryland
38. Utah
39. Wichita St.
40. Iowa St.
41. Baylor
42. Arkansas
43. West Virginia
44. Butler
45. Providence
46. Georgetown
47. Dayton
48. Ohio St.
49. Michigan St.
50. St. John's
51. Iowa
52. NC State

29 teams fighting for 18 spots

Tier 1 Bubble: Even an 0-1 trip to the conference tournament and they are probably ok but may be a little uneasy on Selection Sunday especially if there are a few bid thieves. Avoiding a bad loss to end their season will lock these teams up.

53. Colorado St. (RPI 26: 25-5, 13-5) Best Wins: San Diego St., Boise St., Worst Losses: @New Mexico, Wyoming (twice). CSU started 13-0 against a joke of a non-conference slate and then continued the trend by racing to a very respectable conference record gathering a pair of nice in conference wins vs. the class of the league. Their road in the conference tourney includes Fresno St. then likely San Diego St. in the semis. A loss in the semis is more than enough, a loss in the quarters may leave them doing some sweating but they should still be in. (Next Up: 3/12 Quarterfinals vs. Fresno St.)

54. Georgia (RPI 40: 20-10, 11-7) Best Wins: @ Texas A&M, Ole Miss (twice), Seton Hall, Florida. Worst Losses: @Georgia Tech, NC vs. Minnesota, South Carolina (twice), Auburn. Likely the 3rd team out of the SEC looks to be in good shape despite the lack of any top end wins and a few questionable losses. Still, the number of top 100 wins in general will likely be enough. The #3 seed in the SEC tournament the only way I see Georgia not dancing is if the 11/14 winner gets by Ole Miss on Thursday and then upsets Georgia on Friday. Any other scenario and Georgia is safe. (Next Up: 3/13 SEC Quarterfinals vs. Ole Miss/ South Carolina)

55. Oregon (RPI 29: 22-8, 13-5) Best Wins: Utah, NC vs. Illinois, Stanford, UCLA, Arizona St. (twice), Oregon St. Worse Losses: @Washington St., NC vs. Michigan, @Washington, @UCLA. If you are looking for a team that is playing like they want to be in and are playing like they deserve to be there look no further than the ducks with wins in their final 4 games of the regular season to improve a mid-60s RPI up to #29. Assuming the Pac 12 gets 3 teams in, Oregon will be that team. Even with a 0-1 Pac 12 tourney they are probably still ok. 1 win should eliminate all doubt. (Next Up: 3/12 Pac 12 Quarterfinals Colorado)

56. Xavier (RPI 37: 19-12, 9-9) Best Wins: Georgetown (twice), Butler, Providence, @Cincinnati, @Alabama, Murray St. Worst Losses: @Auburn, @DePaul, Creighton, @Seton Hall, NC vs. UTEP. Got the win at Creighton to end the regular season to get to .500 in conference, even with a 0-1 trip next week there really shouldn't be too much to worry about with this profile. We will keep them here however just for the miniscule chance that they get blown out and the rest of the bubble strengthens substantially over the next week. (Next Up: 3/12 Big East Quarterfinals Butler)

57. Davidson (RPI 31: 22-6, 14-4) Best Wins: VCU, Dayton, @Rhode Island, @UMass, @La Salle, @George Washington. Worst Losses: @St. Joseph's, @St. Bonaventure, @Richmond. Got a huge win over VCU and ended the season winning 9 straight and the #1 seed in the A10 tournament. Even a 0-1 trip and they should be ok. (Next Up: 3/13 A10 Quarterfinals UMass/ La Salle)

58. Cincinnati (RPI 34: 22-9, 13-5) Best Wins: San Diego St., SMU (twice), @NC State, UConn, Temple. Worst Losses: @East Carolina, @Nebraska, Tulane. A few weeks ago Cincy was in a freefall with 3 straight losses, now 4 wins later including a win on the road against fellow bubble team Tulsa they should be feeling pretty safe. Even a 0-1 trip next week and they should be ok but may risk a trip to Dayton. 1 win is a lock. (Next Up: 3/13 AAC Quarterfinals UConn/USF)

Tier 2: A 0-1 trip to the tourney would leave serious question marks but there would still be a chance of inclusion:

59. LSU (RPI 59: 22-9, 11-7) Best Wins: @Arkansas, @West Virginia, UMass, Georgia, Ole Miss (twice), Florida (twice) @Alabama. Worst Losses: @Missouri, @Miss St., Auburn. LSU saved their best for last winning at Arkansas to finish the season. Committee has been very clear that when you win (or lose) doesn't matter so it is easy to fall prey to the recency effect. Still, that was a big oneand it is really tough to see a scenario where they are not a part of the field of 68 now unless they take a really ugly SEC Tourney loss which given their seeding and the double bye seems very unlikely. Still a 0-3 record against A&M makes it tough to argue for inclusion over them, as would a 2nd loss to Mississippi St. or Auburn. (Next Up: 3/13 SEC Quarterfinals Texas A&M/ Auburn)

60. Temple (RPI 32: 22-9, 13-5) Best Wins: Kansas, Cincinnati, La Salle. Worst Losses: NC vs. UNLV, @ St. Joes., Tulsa (twice). It is amazing what an OOC win vs. Kansas can do to make you look past an otherwise lackluster non-conference season with a few questionable losses. Getting swept by Tulsa does not look good on the resume but this is still one of the best 36 at large profiles in the country. May want to take 1 in the conference tourney just to be sure. (Next Up: 3/13 AAC Quarterfinals Memphis)

61. Oklahoma St. (RPI 47: 17-12, 8-10) Best Wins: Baylor (twice), Kansas, Texas (twice). Worst Losses: @ Kansas St., @TCU, @ South Carolina, @Texas Tech. This is a little bit of a misnomer to have them in this tier considering their level of competition they will face in their first game. A 0-1 trip won't drop them from #60 and the only way they get left out is everyone else behind them getting multiple wins. (Next Up: 3/12 Big 12 Quarterfinals Oklahoma)

62. Boise St. (RPI 38: 22-7, 14-4) Best Wins: San Diego St. (twice), Colorado St., @ St. Mary's. Worst Losses: @Fresno St., Utah St., NC vs. Loyola Marymount. The season sweep of SDSU is likely enough to offset the 3 very bad losses outside the top 100 RPI do hurt especially since they will enter the MWC as the #1 seed now. They need to beat the winner of the 8/9 game, from there the winner of the 4/5 would really be a pretty tough loss to end the season on as well. They might want to get to the finals just to be sure (or at least to avoid Dayton). (Next Up: 3/12 MWC Quarterfinals vs. Air Force)

63. Purdue (RPI 56: 20-11, 12-6) Best Wins: Indiana (twice), Ohio St., Iowa, N.C. State, Worst Losses: NC. Vs. Kansas St., North Florida, @ Vandy, Gardner-Webb. Won against Illinois to end the year securing the double bye into the Big 10 Quarterfinals likely against Iowa. 0-1 feels a lot like Dayton, a win and a trip to the Semis should punch their ticket. (Next Up: 3/13 Big 10 Quarterfinals Iowa/Penn St./Nebraska)

Tier 3: Winning at least 1 more game is a must, maybe (probably for some) more

64. Ole Miss (RPI 51: 20-11, 11-7) Best Wins: @Arkansas, Texas A&M, NC vs. Cincinnati, @ Oregon. Worst Losses: Vanderbilt, Charleston Southern, TCU, Western Kentucky. Ole Miss lost 3 of 4 to end the year and saved the worst for last by losing on their home floor to Vanderbilt. That is a good reminder of the other 3 completely inexcusable losses, all on their home floor to RPI 100+ teams. The win at Arkansas and at Oregon are the big discriminators over Texas A&M, even more so than the H2H win in Oxford. A win in the 2nd round against Missouri/South Carolina is a must. A loss against Georgia in the Quarterfinals leaves a lot of room for doubt about this resume and potential exclusion from the field. A win there should shore them up nicely. (Next Up: 3/12 SEC 2nd Round South Carolina)

65. Old Dominion (RPI 36: 24-6, 13-5) Conference USA Auto Bid Placeholder) Best Wins: Virginia Commonwealth, NC vs. LSU, La Tech. Worst Losses: @Western Kentucky, @Middle Tenn. St, @UAB, @UTSA. Similar to Wofford out of the Southern, ODU is listed here but realistically their chances for an at large are slim. A loss in the CUSA tourney however would not be quite as devastating as a loss for Wofford. They do have 2 very nice wins but really they are the only 2 of any particular substance which is not enough to balance out a handful of really bad losses. Won 6 in a row to end the regular season which was only good enough for the #3 seed in the CUSA. The Quarterfinals are a must win. A semifinal loss to UTEP or a finals loss to La Tech would leave some room for debate about ODU's inclusion (but likely just not quite enough) (Next Up: 3/12 Quarterfinals Middle Tennessee)

66. BYU (RPI 36: 23-9, 13-5) Best Wins: @Gonzaga, Stanford, UMass, Worst Losses: @Pepperdine (twice), San Diego. BYU really did nothing in the WCC tournament to adjust their standing. BYU barely survived Santa Clara and Portland and then lost by double digits to Gonzaga, as would most teams on the BW. I think they are IN for now, but depending on how those around them do could easily become an OUT. (Regular Season Over)

67. Texas (RPI 42: 20-12, 8-10) Best Wins: West Virginia, NC vs. Iowa, @UConn. Worst Losses: Stanford. Texas finished the year nicely but the conference record is still an ugly one. They did get the must win vs. Texas Tech in the 1st round game to avoid a disaster and a trip to the NIT. The quarterfinals vs. Iowa St. may be a play in game for the horns, if they win that one I see them punching their NCAA ticket, if they lose...I give it about a 50% chance to sneak into Dayton. (Next Up: 3/12 Big 12 Quarterfinals Iowa State)

68. UCLA (RPI 52: 19-12, 11-7) Best Wins: Utah, Stanford (twice), Oregon, Oregon St. Worst Losses: @ Colorado, @Alabama, @Oregon St., @Oregon, @Cal, @Arizona St. UCLA is a different team at home and they showed that at the end of the year winning their final 3 games all at home. That helps the record out a little bit but none of those wins were anywhere close to what you would call marquee. They still need to prove they can win a big game away from home. The quarterfinals against likely Arizona St. may not be enough proof. I think the chances for the at large come down to if they can knock off Arizona on a neutral court in the Semis. (Next Up: 3/12 Pac 12 Quarterfinals USC)

--------------------- The Bubble Bursts Here

69. Texas A&M (RPI 55: 20-10, 11-7) Best Wins: LSU (twice), Florida, Arizona St. Worst Losses: @Kansas St., @Alabama. As stated in the intro, not much has changed over the last few days, Texas A&M is still in an OUT position if the season were to end today. That is disappointing but they still have their fate in their hands. As stated in the intro a win in the 2nd round is an absolute must and you can probably throw a Quarterfinals matchup with LSU into that category as well. This will be a hotly debated 50/50 sorta deal if A&M gets 2 wins and then loses to Kentucky in the Semis. 3 wins is basically a lock. (Next Up: 3/12 2nd Round Auburn)

70. Miami (RPI 62: 20-11, 10-8) Best Wins: @Duke, Illinois, @Florida, NC State, @ Syracuse. Worst Losses: Eastern Kentucky, Georgia Tech, @Florida St., @ Wake Forest. An 8-0 start with solid wins at Florida, and at home against Illinois non-conference. February wasn't pretty however which started the Canes in a hole to start March still trying to play their way in. Starting March with a win at fellow bubble competition Pitt and then getting the must win at Virginia Tech was a great way to start that upward movement but there is still work to be done to get an at large. A 2nd round win does nothing to move them up, this one looks like it will come down to a Quarterfinals game against Notre Dame to get in. (Next Up: 3/12 ACC Quarterfinals Notre Dame)

71. Indiana (RPI 58: 19-12, 9-9) Best Wins: SMU, NC vs. Butler, Maryland. Ohio St. Worst Losses: Purdue (twice) Eastern Washington, Northwestern (twice). Went 4-8 in their last 12 how you perform in your last 12 games of the season is no longer a metric that is considered and the Hoosiers are very fortunate for that. That being said that slide has done its damage to what was once a very strong resume and the RPI has dropped from 29 to the mid-50s. A win over Northwestern in the 2nd round does very little, like Miami this looks like they will get their shot at a play in game in the Quarterfinals, theirs will come against Maryland(Next Up: 3/12 2nd Round Northwestern)

72. Old Dominion (RPI 36: 24-6, 13-5) Conference USA Auto Bid Placeholder) Best Wins: Virginia Commonwealth, NC vs. LSU, La Tech. Worst Losses: @Western Kentucky, @Middle Tenn. St, @UAB, @UTSA. Similar to Wofford out of the Southern, ODU is listed here but realistically their chances for an at large are slim. A loss in the CUSA tourney however would not be quite as devastating as a loss for Wofford. They do have 2 very nice wins but really they are the only 2 of any particular substance which is not enough to balance out a handful of really bad losses. Won 6 in a row to end the regular season which was only good enough for the #3 seed in the CUSA. The Quarterfinals are a must win. A semifinal loss to UTEP or a finals loss to La Tech would leave some room for debate about ODU's inclusion (but likely just not quite enough) (Next Up: 3/12 Quarterfinals Middle Tennessee)
73. Stephen F. Austin (RPI 44: 24-4, 17-1) Best Wins: @ Memphis, SHSU (twice). Worst Losses: @TAMU-CC. Started 0-3 but are hot now against sub-par competition. The Jacks won 7 in a row to end the season and have now won 24 of 25. The only way they are going to be in the conversation for an at large bid is a loss in the finals to Sam Houston St. whom they have already beaten twice this year. (Next Up: 3/13 Southland Semis Northwestern St./McNeese St.)

74. Richmond (RPI 54: 19-12, 12-6) Best Wins: VCU (twice), Davidson, George Washington. Worst Losses: @James Madison, Wake Forest, @La Salle, @George Mason. The season sweep of VCU is the only thing that makes this resume worth considering and those wins are losing a little bit of luster with VCU's recent slide. They will probably get another shot at making it a 3 peat as Richmond got the 4 seed to VCU's 5 seed, assuming VCU wins, if Richmond can add a 3rd win against VCU they will be in the conversation but they will likely need to beat Davidson in the Semis too. (Next Up: 3/13 A10 Quarterfinals Fordham/Virginia Commonwealth)

75. Buffalo (RPI 30: 21-9, 12-6) Best Wins: @Bowling Green, Kent St. (twice), S Dakota St. Worst Losses: St. Bonaventure, W. Michigan, Ohio, Akron. The analysis from last week holds - after 6 straight wins to end the regular season at an RPI of 30I still don't think they have any chance at an at large but they will present an interesting test case for the committee at the end of the day the discussion should be this it is way too dang easy to manipulate the RPI and the MAC has done a great job of doing it similar to the MVC run in the late 2000s. Buffalo's RPI is mainly a result of playing 10 of their first 14 as true road games, mixing in blowout losses at Kentucky and At Wisconsin among beating up on really bad teams on the road. The RPI is not a result of Buffalo being a good team and when the committee digs into that they will see that. That being said, this wouldn't be an all-inclusive bubble watch tracking all threats without at least giving them a cursory glance. Due to tiebreakers they get the rare MAC triple bye all the way to the Semis where they will likely get Kent State. In my opinion they need the auto bid and any loss in the conference tournament will put an end to their NCAA Tourney dreams, but the possibility of an at large does exist with some bubble chaos. (Next Up: 3/13 TBD MAC Semifinals Kent St./Akron)

76. Murray St. (RPI 66: 25-5, 14-0) Best Wins: Illinois St. Worst Losses: Houston, NC vs. Portland, NC vs. Valparaiso. Well that was about the worst case scenario for the rest of the bubble and the reason why I included Murray St. on the BW to begin with. Murray St. won 24 straight games after a 1-4 start to the year all the way until losing a heart breaker in the OVC Finals to Belmont 88-87. I still think if you look at the full resume of who have you beaten, who have you lost to, it makes a difficult case for inclusion in the tournament but Murray St. will at least be in the conversation as a fringe candidate.(Season Over)

77. Illinois (RPI 62: 19-12, 9-9) Best Wins: NC vs. Baylor, Maryland, @Michigan St., Michigan. Worst Losses: @Nebraska, @Minnesota, @Michigan, @Miami. Lost what was pretty close to a must win in the finals to Purdue. That slots the Illini as the #8 seed in the Big 10 tournament where a win over Michigan and then #1 seed Wisconsin is a must. After that things get interesting. Anything short of that and they have no chance. (Next Up: 3/12 Big 10 2nd Round Michigan)

78. Tulsa (RPI 47: 21-8, 14-4) Best Wins: @Temple (twice), UConn, Memphis. Worst Losses: @Oral Roberts Southeast Oklahoma St. (DII), one of the worst starts to a season you can imagine with a loss to RPI 200+ Oral Roberts and then a later loss to Division 2 SEOSU. The sweep of Temple is impressive however as is the gaudy conference record but they just couldn't get it done against big time competition against Cincinnati and SMU to end the season. That leaves lots of work to do in the tournament and will take a minimum of a run to the finals with a close loss to SMU to be in the conversation. To do that they will need to get by a very winnable quarterfinal game and a tricky semifinal likely against Cincinnati. (Next Up: 3/13 CUSA Quarterfinals Houston/Tulane)

79. Rhode Island (RPI 72: 20-8, 13-5) Best Wins: UMass, La Salle, George Washington. Worst Losses: NC. Vs. Georgia Tech, @St. Joseph's. I called the game the last week of the regular season against Dayton a must win for at large chances and I truly believe it was, so it is really tough to see them sneaking in at this point. If they get to the tourney finals and they may have a very outside shot but this is basically an auto bid or bust scenario now. (Next Up: 3/13 A10 Quarterfinals George Washington/Duquesne)

80. Stanford (RPI 57: 18-12, 9-9) Best Wins: @Texas, Wofford, UConn, Arizona St. Worst Losses: @DePaul, @Washington St., @Colorado. The Cardinal lost 7 of 9 to end the year, in my estimation even a run to the conference finals probably isn't enough unless absolute chaos happens in front of them. (Next Up: 3/12 Pac 12 Quarterfinals Utah)

What to Watch: All times Central
(Aggie fans should root for the team in bold)

Wednesday March 11th

10:30 Pac 12 1st Round Washington vs. Stanford this would finally put an end to the hopes and dreams of the Cardinal

Thursday March 12th

Note: for Thursday we will still focus on eliminating bubble teams, starting Friday we will start paying a little more attention to potential bid thieves still left.

11:00 BTN Michigan vs. Illinois Hopefully Michigan can eliminate Illinois from the BW

2:00 CBSSN Air Force vs. Boise St. Boise St. is sitting pretty right now but it is questionable whether they could survive what would be a very bad loss

2:25 SECN Texas A&M vs. Auburn I can't say it enough, this game is a must win, if the good guys don't come back with a W then none of the rest of this matters one iota.

2:30 Middle Tennessee vs. Old Dominion I am of the camp that when bubble teams from potential one bid leagues get to the conference tournament, just root them on to win it at that point. On the other hand, Old Dominion likely would not be able to survive a bad loss to MTSU, they potentially could survive one down the road vs. UTEP or La Tech

4:30 USC vs. UCLA UCLA has a must win in their first game of the Pac 12 Tournament similar to A&M vs. Auburn
5:30 ESPN2 Northwestern vs. Indiana Hoosiers have a similar situation as UCLA and Texas A&M, must win for them

6:00 ESPNU Iowa St. vs. Texas This is potentially a play in game for Texas

8:00 ESPNU Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma St. OSU could probably survive a loss here but, it might be nice to see them sweat

8:00 Colorado vs. Oregon Oregon can probably survive a loss but this would be a very bad one

8:00 Notre Dame vs. Miami Pretty close to a play in game for Miami, loss and they are likely done

8:30 FS1 Butler vs. Xavier Xavier likely in regardless, this would keep them off the lock line for now

10:30 CBSSN Fresno St vs. Colorado St. I have CSU as a little safer than most analysts but this would be a very damaging loss

10:30 Stanford vs. Utah Another must win for the Cardinal