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Stat Simulation Game 9: Texas A&M vs UL-Monroe

Analyzing how the ULM Warhawks (3-4, 2-2) stack up against the Fightin’ Texas Aggies (5-3, 2-3) in this week's Stat Simulation...

Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

Sorry for the late article this week everyone... my sick daughter takes priority this week.

For the first time in almost 2 years, the Aggies no longer lead the SEC in Total Offense.  They do still lead in Passing Offense and Passing Plays per Game, and are in the National Top 25 in Total Offense, Scoring, Efficiency, Yards per Play, and 1st Downs.  The Maroon and White are suspected to be starting a new QB in Kyle Allen against a (surprisingly) decent ULM defense - which is in the Top 25 in the nation in Sacks per Game, TFL per Game, and 3rd Down Defense.

On the other side of the ball, the Aggies may have found the offense to match their defense.  The Warhawks are bad at just about every offensive category - they are in the bottom 25 in the country in 13 categories.

Before you skip to the analysis, please let me first explain the scope, drawbacks, and purpose of this chart. Once you're familiar with this information, you can happily skip ahead in the future. But I insist that you READ THIS NOW before you proceed.

Key to the chart below:
Blue Metric = Top 25 in the Nation
Red Metric = Bottom 25 in the nation
Advantage = One team is more than 20 spots ahead of the other team’s inverse metric in the national ranking; i.e. Texas A&M was ranked 68th in Rush Defense versus SMU’s 98th ranked Rushing Offense; therefore, due to A&M being 30 spots ahead of SMU in that metric's national ranking, they get the "advantage".

2014 vs ULM Statim

Disclaimer 1: The prediction formula is an algorithm that I created which takes into account yardage offense and defense, how a team has performed relative to its direct competition, injuries, red zone scoring, home/away/neutral, turnover margin, average points scored and allowed, and a multitude of other factors that are all represented on the above "Foundation of Facts". I have been tweaking the formula for 4 years, but nonetheless I have not found a way to accurately predict the outcome of each game because (as my quote above implies) there are simply TOO many variables to account for and too much uncertainty in each game. However, it is fun to include the objective, stat-based, and numbers-only prediction for a conversation piece. (Besides, if my formula was really that accurate I would horde it to myself and be a multi-millionaire like alternate-Biff in the movie Back to the Future 2)

Disclaimer 2: I take no responsibility if you attempt to use this prediction for betting; unless you win - in which case I demand a 10% gratuity. But seriously, if you have a gambling problem and use this to bet, and lose... do not hold me responsible and seek help to beat your addiction.

GUT FEELING

The Aggies will start slow against a decent ULM defense with Kyle Allen getting the start, and the Aggies coaches most likely leaning on the run game to take pressure of the Freshman.  ULM only gives up 20 points collectively in the 1st quarter; but then turns into a mild sieve thereafter.  The Aggies should win going away, but it will take a few series to get the machine going.  Aggies win 41-13.

LOOK AHEAD

The Aggies return to the state of Alabama next week to face a tough Auburn team which is currently ranked #3 / #4.  Auburn but has had a relatively easy schedule so far - dropping the only really tough game it had against #1 Mississippi State.  They did pull off a big win versus LSU, earlier in the season, before the Bayou Bengals really got their youth tuned in to the speed and rigors of the College Game.  This is a game that most will give the Aggies no chance in.  I agree that the Aggies chances in that game are slim, but let's see how Auburn does this weekend versus #4 / #7 Ole Miss.