Welp. It finally happened. We took too many gut shots and gave away our early season advantage. But we've got a great strategy to remedy this situation: Increase our bet sizes! Seriously, it's OK, as we'll still be about 1% of our bankroll and we have more data to back the teams we're wagering on.
WEEK FIVE REVIEW
Live by the hook, die by the hook. The hook saved us with Iowa State and Memphis, as both teams were catching 21.5 and lost by a tidy three touchdowns and PATs on the dot. Thanks, plucky kinda-terrible underdogs, for sucking just the right amount. On the flip side, Stanford outgained Washington 364 to 179 and still somehow only won by a touchdown, thanks to three turnovers, failing to cover the 7.5. Cal was a whiff for us, and Brady Hoke... not only did you fail to cover, sir, but you now join Will Muschamp riding in the YOU ARE SO SO FIRED BUS. Actually, you're now driving the bus, Brady. And here, take the title and sign it. It's all yours.
Bonus bets, ever the millstone. Urban covered just like we knew he would coming off a bye - shoulda been part of our main card, to be honest. But Penn State lost at home to Northwestern to blow our teaser and the A&M offense bumbled around for three quarters to keep the total against Arky under 72.
That's another knock of 127 GBHs.
CURRENT BANKROLL 9,953 GBHs
THE WEEKLY CARD
So so many good games and curiously tight lines. Be careful with all that chalk, team.
THE GAME Stanford -2.5 at Notre Dame
Stanford has had, quite frankly, some awful, awful luck this season. And the public doesn't seem to realize just how good the Cardinal defense is. How does 198 YPG and 3.3 YPP sound? That's some old school Wrecking Crew level of sexy. This is the week the Cardinal O gets its, um, stuff together, doesn't turn the ball over, and doesn't develop polio upon entering the red zone. All those short passes that worked for ND last week against Syracuse won't work this week, and Golson will struggle. The nerds from Palo Alto are the team to take here.
THE BET Stanford -2.5, risking 110 GBHs to win 100
THE GAME Texas Tech +14 at Kansas State
Texas Tech has a problem. Actually, they have multiple problems. Major injury questions at quarterback and an atrocious defense. We're not, like, coaches or anything, but that doesn't seem like a recipe for winning football. Meanwhile, Manhattan's MacGyver Bill Snyder has fashioned another group of walk ons, discarded tractor tires, and assorted office supplies into a solid football team. This is a mismatch of talent, execution, coaching experience, and expertise. We love the Wildcat at home. Big.
THE BET Kansas State -14, risking 110 GBHs to win 100
THE GAME LSU +7.5 at Auburn
Just when you think Les Miles is out, he gets back in. Backs to the wall, the Tigers of the Bayou Variety are staring an 0-2 SEC mark in the face, all but bowing out of the race before it starts. The good news is LSU seems to have figured out its quarterback situation, smartly going with the younger and supremely talented Harris. We've also got some line movement here, as Auburn, opening as a 9 point favorite has seen the smart money move on LSU. We agree. Take the grass-eatin' coach, the touchdown, and the hook.
THE BET LSU +7.5, risking 110 GBHs to win 100
THE GAME Bama -5 at Ole Miss
The public's love of the week is the Crimson Tide, who are (checks schedule) playing a true road game for the first time this season? Well my oh my, that's interesting. Fresh in the mind is the Tide demolition of Florida in Tuscaloosa. But Florida just isn't that good. Everyone seems to have forgotten about the season opener when WVU hung around far longer than they should have. We're of the opinion that the Ole Miss defense is legit, and will give Bama problems. Unless Dr. Bo murders the patient on the operating table - always a possibility - this will be close. Only wish we'd nabbed it at 7.
THE BET Ole Miss +5, risking 110 GBHs to win 100
THE GAME Utah +13 at UCLA
Utah is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Wazzu, while UCLA is basking in the glow of a deceptively dominant win over "ranked" Arizona State. Lemme tell ya, the only think rank about ASU is their defense. ZING! Brett Hundley is good. Quite good. But the UCLA defense is not up to snuff, and it gets exposed a bit as Utah, more than capable of putting up points in their own right, hangs around. We feel comfy grabbing it at 13, but perhaps be patient and see if it balloons to 14 on the backs of public dollars chasing earlier-in-the-day losses.
THE BET Utah +13, risking 110 GBHs to win 100
Tennessee -2.5 vs. Florida (risking 33 GBHs to win 30) Butch Jones has the Vols playing with confidence. Muschamp and the Gators? Not so much
Baylor -14.5 at texas (risking 33 GBHs to win 30) Core values don't score touchdowns, Charlie.
Cal at Wazzu OVER 76 (risking 33 GBHs to win 30) Thoughts and prayers for the scoreboard operator.
Who ya got this weekend? Have a feeling we'll be looking at some very different polls on Monday afternoon. Good luck!