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GBH Gamblin' Guide: Week Nine

The Ags won't get a win or (thankfully) a loss this weekend, but a true degenerate never has a bye.

William Mancebo

Moving into the meat of conference play, the contenders are finally getting separation from the pretenders. That tray of cupcakes from September is long gone, but lots of fat spreads - even for road favorites - populate the board in week nine. Our selections ahead.


We posted our sixth winning week out of seven. High fives all around.

Our main card went 3-2 as it seemingly always does. Oregon covered the number by halftime and kept the back door closed, LSU thumped Kentucky, and Maryland took a while to wake up before putting Iowa away in the second half. A late Hawkeye rally made it seem closer than it was. Baylor self-immolated at WVU, penalizing itself into an outright loss (share in our misery, Bears). And finally, the Hoosiers were a total tease, going up 17-14 on Michigan State in the second quarter before giving up ALL THE POINTS over the final half plus.

Bonus Bets... two winning weeks in a row? What's going on here? Well, Bama covered the 13.5 *ahem* rather easily. Shoulda been on the main card, that one. So. Much. Pain. Also cashing were Northwestern and Nebraska hitting the over by a FG. Our loss was Arkansas +3.5. BERT's boys didn't quit, but UGA - clearly the class of the SEC East - put this one away rather early.

The week's showing added another 107 GBHs to our account.



THE GAME Ole Miss -3.5 at LSU

It's not that LSU got better in its two wins at Florida and at home against Kentucky. It's that the competition got much, much worse. The Tigers are the same team that got worked over by Mississippi State and Auburn. Miles' group is one dimensional on offense, relying almost exclusively on the running game, and prone to busts on defense. Against Ole Miss, that won't be enough. That landshark defense is stingy. As long as Dr. Bo keeps the chainsaws out of the operating room the Rebels get a rare win at Death Valley. (The real one. Not the one in Climpson.)

THE BET Ole Miss -3.5, risking 110 GBHs to win 100

THE GAME Texas +10 at Kansas State

Put simply, Kansas State is tremendously overvalued here, stealing a win in Norman last week despite being outgained by a healthy margin. Between Knight's horrific pick six at his own goal line and the #collegekickers case study by the Sooner kicker, what should have been a double digit OU win became a loss by the narrowest of margins. It's enough to make one believe in point shaving. KSU is not an explosive team, and - we don't wish to alarm you - the Texas offense is showing signs of competence. In a low scoring affair, Texas still loses but keeps it within the number.

THE BET Texas +10, risking 110 GBHs to win 100

THE GAME Arizona -2.5 at Wazzu

The public impression of Arizona is of the team that won a spotlight game at Oregon against a hobbled Marcus Mariota and patchwork Duck OL. The public seems to have forgotten about the miracle necessary for the Wildcats to beat Cal at home. The true Arizona is much closer to the latter team than the former, yet the public is all over Rich Rod's team as easy money on the road. The line, however, has dipped from Zona -4 to Zona -2.5. We agree with the sharps that the home team with the veteran QB is the correct side here, but we'll lay the extra ten cents to buy it up to 3.

THE BET Wazzu +3, risking 120 GBHs to win 100


Utah is an undervalued team, with a stout defense and solid running game. More importantly, they're at home, and SLC is at altitude. A paper thin SC team will wear down in the second half. In terms of betting patterns and line movement, the public is on the name brand Trojans but the line has dropped as smart money favors the Utes ("Did you say Utes?" "I'm sorry your honor, two youTHs.") However your cousin Vinny pronounces it, Utah is the second PAC12 home team we like this week.

THE BET Utah PK, risking 110 GBHs to win 100

THE GAME West Virginia +1 at Oklahoma State

Sure, WVU is in a let-down spot after the big home win over Baylor last week, but Oklahoma State is not a good football team. More specifically, they can't really run the ball. Also, they can't really pass the ball, except for the occasional deep throw from quarterback Daxxxx Garman. Public action on this contest is surprisingly balanced, but the line has dropped from Cowboys -3 to Cowboys -1. Once again we'll follow the sharps that like the Mountaineers. Holgo's boot-and-rally season continues, and no Morgantown couch is safe from the consequences.

THE BET West Virginia +1, risking 110 GBHs to win 100


Oregon at Cal OVER 79 (risking 33 GBHs to win 30) Start your weekend off right with a Friday night feast of points. Mariota gunnin' for that Heisman.

Teaser Auburn -13.5 and Bama -11.5 (risking 33 GBHs to win 30) Even on the the road, SEC West >>> SEC East.

Teaser Nebraska -14 and Michigan State -11 (risking 33 GBHs to win 30) Rutgers, you're so getting baptized by fire in the B1G. Brady Hoke, you're still so getting fired.

October is drawing to a close and the home stretch is in sight. Cash out this weekend!