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Three weeks in, and three weeks of profit. This thing must be broken. We're in the second week of a lull as non-conference games wind down and conference play gets underway. More coaches-name-their-score blowouts await. What we'll be keeping an eye out for around this time of year are those undefeated, overhyped teams with gaudy stats that have feasted on the weak. There will be value in betting against them over the next few weeks as they retreat back to Earth when facing more familiar opponents.
WEEK THREE IN REVIEW
The takeaway from week three? Every half point matters. Getting the best number possible is essential if you want to win in the long run.
TCU -3 at Texas Tech (-44 GBHs) Spot on with Baker Mayfield regressing considerably against the TCU defense. Didn't count on Boykin being a glorified RB under center for the Frogs. Or officials being transfixed by the beauty of Kliff Kingsbury. And maybe the Tech defense is decent? File that away. May be some value on Tech in the coming weeks versus a pillow soft schedule.
Rice -6.5 vs Kansas (+50 GBHs) Didn't get a chance to watch this one, but judging by the box score it was cover-your-eyes awful. Kansas will be a team to fade (bet against) in Big XII play again this year. Thanks for the coin, Charlie Weis!
Texas -2.5 vs. Ole Miss (-44 GBHs) Not much to say except "flat out wrong", though at halftime I was feelin' pretty good. Let's keep an eye on the sips if and when David Ash plays. It's clear the gap between him and Case McCoy has widened considerably.
Louisville -13.5 at Kentucky (+50 GBHs) What do you call a win by a half point? A win. Safe to say that the Cards didn't exactly make the statement they needed to on Saturday. And don't sleep on Kentucky's defense. They're feisty.
Texas A&M +7.5 vs. Alabama (+60 GBHs) Some will say "backdoor cover". But I say that giving Johnny Football anything more than a single score is dumb. If you think Johnny, Kevin Sumlin, or the A&M team is ever gonna pack it in, you're delusional.
Arizona State -5 vs. Wisconsin (-22 GBHs) Wisconsin's secondary is suspect. Pac-12 officials? Also suspect. At least that buffoonery didn't cause the final margin to cross the point spread. ASU briefly took control in the second half as expected, but let the Badgers convert a fake punt and never got the separation needed for the cover.
Ohio State at Cal OVER 66 (+20 GBHs) This one sailed over the number. We're going to see some high totals on both Cal and tOSU games going forward. The Buckeyes can be beaten through the air.
Nebraska -4.5 vs. UCLA (-22 GBHs) First half? Yea. Second half? Ugh. And smile knowing that your week was better than Bo Pelini's. Gonna miss you after this season, Bo.
All told, we squeezed out a profit of 48 GBHs last weekend. Treading water a bit? Sure, but we're not sinking. Yet. Again, size your bets appropriately. In hindsight, probably should have upgraded that Ohio State OVER to a full play.
We'll slow play it again this week with another thin card.
Current Bankroll: 10416 GBHs
THE GAME Clemson -13.5 at NC State
Thursday night football! NC State is 2-0... with a narrow win over FCS Richmond and a decisive win over a terrible LaTech team (who in turn lost to Tulane. Yes, that Tulane). Clemson has to be able to pull away and beat teams like the Wolfpack decisively. Be sure to shop around and find it at 13.5, not the 14 most outlets are dealing. It's a square play, but not all square plays are bad plays.
THE BET Clemson -13.5 (55 GBHs to win 50)
THE GAME UNC +6.5 at Georgia Tech
We have a familiar conference foe and the Heels with two weeks to prepare for the flexbone. The public is all over Georgia Tech. Evidently because they blew out Elon and handled Duke? Duke is gettin' respect now? Ooookay). This seems like a good spot to take what I still believe is an undervalued UNC team.
THE BET UNC +6.5 (55 GBHs to win 50)
THE GAME Arkansas PK at Rutgers
This is real simple. Arkansas is already one dimensional with QB Brandon Allen in the game. With QB Brandon Allen out? They're likely to be inept. The way to carve up Rutgers' respectable D is through the air, as Carr and Fresno State did. Arkansas doesn't have the personnel for that. And they do have Gary Nova, who should be able to lead a more balanced attack against an Arkansas team shocked to finally meet an opponent they can't physically dominate.
THE BET Rutgers PK (55 GBHs to win 50)
THE GAME Arizona State +7 at Stanford
Arizona State's run defense is questionable, and if there's one thing a David Shaw Stanford team will do well, it's hit you in the face with an anvil repeatedly. The Cardinal have played two opponents and shown almost nothing novel offensively, keeping things close to the vest and doing enough to win by comfy margins. On Saturday with a real opponent coming to town, that changes.
THE BET Stanford -7 (55 GBHs to win 50)
THE GAME Auburn +17.5 at LSU
The LSU defense is young, and if there's one thing Gus's toybox of misdirection and fakes can prey upon, it's the indecisiveness of youth. In a this Tiger rivalry game that's historically close and hard fought, LSU wins this by two scores. Not three.
THE BET Auburn +17.5 (55 GBHs to win 50)
BONUS BETS
Mizzou and Indiana OVER 70.5 (22 GBHs to win 20) Neither team has much of a defense. To win this close game will require 40+.
SMU at A&M OVER 78 (22 GBHs to win 20) Ags are good for 56+. And SMU will drop 21+.
USC -6.5 vs. Utah State (22 GBHs to win 20) It's worth risking a little to see Lane Kiffin self combust.
As always, good luck to all and let's cash some winning tickets!