We roll into the second half of the season with profit in hand and a better sense of who and what teams are. But late October and November are when some teams make their moves and some fall apart. Identify those squads early and there's money to be made.
WEEK EIGHT IN REVIEW
Hey kids, do ya like upsets? Yes, the SEC was absolute carnage last week, with four dogs of at least a TD (Vandy, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Auburn) winning outright. As I've said before, if you really like a dog in a particular spot, don't just take 'em against the spread, sprinkle a little on the moneyline (wager on the team to win the game outright). As for us, we had another winning week. A 3-2 mark on major bets but only went 1-2 on the more fun Bonus Bets to eat away a bit at our profit. That's six winning weeks out of eight.
Vandy +7.5 vs Georgia (+70 GBHs) It looked bleak for a while in the second half, but UGA's shaky defense and some bold coaching work by James Franklin not only covered the spread, but pulled off the outright upset. Will Aaron Murray and other seniors start to pack it in? Or will they fight to make the best of a what-coulda-been season?
Florida -3 at Mizzou (-77 GBHs) Florida has fallen apart. Like UGA, injuries have taken their toll, and even Muschamp's usually iron tight defense has started to spring leaks. Add in an atrocious OL and it makes for a mediocre to poor football team. After being a believer early on, we'll be staying away from the Gators for the rest of the season. Kudos to those who saw it sooner.
WVU +7 vs Texas Tech (-77 GBHs) We were feeling pretty good when the Mountaineers went up 27-16 early in the second half. Then the Red Raiders dropped 21 consecutive points to win by 10 and cover by 3. Kliff has a solid team, but they're still massively overrated by the pollsters. Losses lie ahead, but it will be interesting to see if they become a public team and value is available.
Arizona State -3 vs Washington (+70 GBHs) As expected, Washington didn't bring their best game and the Sun Devils, hungry for a win at home, raced out to a big first half lead and never looked back. The nice, comfy cover every bettor dreams of.
FSU -3 at Clemson (+70 GBHs) We wrote: "FSU has the talent edge at most positions on the field, especially on the lines. And oh yea, at Quarterback, too. Yea, that's right. Winston is better than Boyd." And well, that's pretty much what the events of the evening bore out. Feels nice when one totally nails a game. Doesn't happen often, but feels nice, nevertheless.
Notre Dame -3 vs Southern Cal (+20 GBHs) My compliments to anyone who actually watched this thoroughly boring, unattractive affair. You were rewarded with an Irish ticket that cashed.
LSU at Ole Miss OVER 60 (-22 GBHs) Zach Mettenberger and Bo Wallace traded uniforms before the game. Only explanation. And the tantalizing prospect of OT to get an undeserved wagering win was not to be.
Oregon State at Cal OVER 69 (-22 GBHs) Missing a total by 3 when the game features multiple missed FGs is a nice FU from the gambling gods to finish out a fun Saturday.
All told, we added a modest 32 GBHs to our bankroll, which is a tad disappointing given how close we were to a huge day. But big picture, on a weekend when upsets rained down like cruise missiles, it feels good to walk away a winner.
Current Bankroll: 10454 GBHs
THE GAME Arizona -14 at Colorado
A system spot, with the public on the Wildcats as a big road favorite, yet the line dropping from 16 points to 14. If the lowly Buffs have a season statement left to make, this is the opportunity. These teams also have imbalanced schedules to date, with Colorado facing much tougher group of teams from the PAC, so don't let the records fool you.
THE BET Colorado +14 (77 GBHs to win 70)
THE GAME Tennessee +28 at Alabama
The Vols are feelin' pretty good after their big home win over Sakerlina last week. A trip to Tuscaloosa will not be so kind. The nice thing about betting Bama spreads at this point is they're basically bets on the number of points Bama will score. Think the Tide can hang 38+ on the Vols? You do? Well, that's all you need to know, because UT isn't going to score more than 10. Add in being a rivalry game and the Tide having a bye week next week, and they'll finish this one strong.
THE BET Alabama -28 (77 GBHs to win 70)
THE GAME Texas +2 at TCU
"Oh, Texas is so good again! They thrashed OU in the RRS! Free money!" - what every square bettor is saying right this moment. Gary Patterson defense verses a sure-to-return-to-Earth Case McCoy? Give us, Patterson, please. Despite what is sure to be a burnt orange dominated crowd in TCU's own stadium. And remember, TCU's losses are away from home to some decent teams (LSU at Jerryworld, at Tech, at oSu, at OU).
THE BET TCU -2 (77 GBHs to win 70)
THE GAME Nebraska -10.5 at Minnesota
Now that the team isn't worried about their head coach literally having a seizure on the sideline (Seriously, glad Jerry Kill is getting the care he needs, y'all), the Gophers are playing some decent ball. By B1G standards, at least. But this is ultimately a fade-the-public bet that we love. The Huskers are getting 85% of the bets as a road favorite at most square shops, which should tell us that Minnesota is the right side here.
THE BET Minnesota +10.5
THE GAME UCLA at Oregon -23.5
Struggled for a while to find a final game for the big five bets on the card. But Oregon is at home and is playing a still-respected-for-the-moment UCLA team which doesn't have a defense that's all that special. Most importantly, the Ducks are suddenly in a fight with FSU for the second BCS slot, so expect 'em to drop the hammer and go for style points. Yes, the public is on Oregon, as always, but the line has followed accordingly. So there's not much concern about being opposite wiseguys here.
THE BET Oregon -23.5
Penn State at Ohio State -14.5 (22 GBHs to win 20) Another style point opportunity, and Urban & Co. are at home.
South Carolina at Missouri OVER 53 (22 GBHs to win 20) An old fashioned 2013 season SEC shootout awaits.
Baylor at Kansas OVER 66 (22 GBHs to win 20) Despite being on the road, Baylor should hit this number by themselves.
Stay off tilt everyone, and let's make it another profitable Saturday sitting on our asses and watching the greatest sport in the world!