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Foundation of Facts: Texas Aggies Take on Mighty South Carolina [cough] State

Well the Aggies certainly surprised versus SMU last week. I mean we all knew they were going to win, but by that large of a margin? The Vegas odds-makers had the game at a +11.5 for the home team, and the Ags blew that line out of the water. These week they will look to do the same versus a -51 line. Can they do it? The prediction formula(s) in the Foundation of Facts chart below indicates they will not make it, but by the slimmest of margins... but the formula was wrong in Week 1 on the victor and it was wrong in Week 2 on the margin of victory.

I have a special treat in this week's version. Since SCSU is an FCS team, I re-ranked all their metrics based on the FBS schools. So, everything you see below is how they would fare in the FBS. Oh, and I went ahead and ranked them in the Big Failve conference too. So, read the conference and national rankings below as if South Carolina St. was in the Big Failve. You might raise an eyebrow or two at how they stack up (cough, Baylor defense, cough)

Question of the Week: Who's defense is better: Ole Miss or South Carolina St.? [Answer Below]

Before you skip to the analysis, please let me first explain the scope, drawbacks, and purpose of this chart. Once you're familiar with this information, you can happily skip ahead in the future. But I insist that you READ THIS NOW before you proceed.


Key to the chart below:

Blue Metric = Top 20 in the Nation

Red Metric = Bottom 20 in the nation

Advantage = One team is more than 20 spots ahead of the other team’s inverse metric in the national ranking; i.e. Texas A&M was ranked 68th in Rush Defense versus SMU’s 98th ranked Rushing Offense; therefore, due to A&M being 30 spots ahead of SMU in that metric's national ranking, they get the "advantage".

Download: Full Image | PDF


Disclaimer 1: The prediction formula is an algorithm that I created which takes into account yardage offense and defense, how a team has performed relative to it's direct competition, injuries, red zone scoring, home/away/neutral, turnover margin, average points scored and allowed, and a multitude of other factors that are all represented on the above"Foundation of Facts". I have been tweaking the formula for 3 years, but nonetheless I have not found a way to accurately predict the outcome of each game because (as my quote above implies) there are simply TOO many variables to account for and too much uncertainty in each game. However, it is fun to include the objective, stat-based, and numbers-only prediction for a conversation piece. (Besides, if my formula was really that accurate I would horde it to myself and be a multi-millionaire like alternate-Biff in the movie Back to the Future 2)

Disclaimer 2: I take no responsibility if you attempt to use this prediction for betting; unless you win - in which case I demand a 10% gratuity. But seriously, if you have a gambling problem and use this to bet, and lose... do not hold me responsible and seek help to beat your addiction.

Some notable statistics and questions from the "Foundation of Facts" above:

1. There's really not that much to say, these guys are bad at FCS football and are going to be worse versus an SEC team this weekend.

2. Can we find a starter at running back? Our QB has the most yards, our senior badass is only averaging 2.5 yards per carry, Trey Williams can't seem to break through for a long run, and Ben Malena is not getting very many snaps even though he has the best average...

3. This is a big opportunity for us to pass downfield alot. I hope Mike Evans likes scoring Touchdowns because he should get about 3 in this game.

4. Our O-Line is good, but not great like the last 2 years. I seem to remember them hitting their stride around game 4 or 5 each of the last two seasons though. Anyways, they are giving up 2.5 sacks per game... what?

5. It's hard to find a single guy on the SCSU roster that is "stand out"... they are all just... average.

I hope you enjoy this feature and will come back next week to see how the Aggies will fare, statistically, against the Arkasnas Razorbacks (with or without Tyler Wilson, that is the question) in Game 4.

Answer to Question of the Week: If you look at yards per game and yards per play; SCSU is ahead of Ole Miss in both categories: Yards Per Game - SCSU = 420, Ole Miss = 444; Yards Per Play - SCSU = 5.60, Ole Miss = 6.21... ouch!

p.s. Don't forget to make your predictions for the game here!!!