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2012 Foundation of Facts – Game 10: Texas A&M vs Alabama

See how the Alabama Crimson Tide stack up against Texas A&M’s Fightin’ Texas Aggies in this week's Foundation of Facts...

For the second week in a row, the Aggies stepped on the gas and cruised to a victory, but this time it was against Top-20 Mississippi State (7-1 at the time). This week we will look at how the brawny ‘Bama Crimson Tide (#1 BCS) stack up against the Texas Aggies (#15 BCS).

Alabama is #1 for a reason. They are the best team in the land this year, so far this season. Looking at their schedule they have faced some weak and mediocre competition except for LSU and Mississippi St. Texas A&M is 2-2 versus teams that have 2 losses or less; Alabama is 2-0. Alabama as only allowed 82 points this year and Texas A&M has scored over 400 points.

Some statistics to pay attention to down below:

1. Texas A&M’s Offense is still #1 in the SEC in rushing offense, total offense, scoring offense, plays per game, pass plays per game, average per rush, 1st downs, 3rd down conversion offense, and 3rd down conversion defense.

2. Alabama leads the SEC in 11 of 22 categories listed below; and they are top 4 in everything except for: sacks per game, TFL per game, 3rd down conversion defense, and fumbles recovered. They aren’t too shabby on offense either, leading in: Pass efficiency, points per play, point per yard, redzone offense, and turnovers given away.

Before you skip to the analysis, please let me first explain the scope, drawbacks, and purpose of this chart. Once you're familiar with this information, you can happily skip ahead in the future. But I insist that you READ THIS NOW before you proceed.

Description: Star-divide

Key to the chart below:
Blue Metric = Top 20 in the Nation
Red Metric = Bottom 20 in the nation
Advantage = One team is more than 20 spots ahead of the other team’s inverse metric in the national ranking; i.e. Texas A&M was ranked 68th in Rush Defense versus SMU’s 98th ranked Rushing Offense; therefore, due to A&M being 30 spots ahead of SMU in that metric's national ranking, they get the "advantage".

Download: Full Image | PDF


Disclaimer 1: The prediction formula is an algorithm that I created which takes into account yardage offense and defense, how a team has performed relative to its direct competition, injuries, red zone scoring, home/away/neutral, turnover margin, average points scored and allowed, and a multitude of other factors that are all represented on the above "Foundation of Facts". I have been tweaking the formula for 3 years, but nonetheless I have not found a way to accurately predict the outcome of each game because (as my quote above implies) there are simply TOO many variables to account for and too much uncertainty in each game. However, it is fun to include the objective, stat-based, and numbers-only prediction for a conversation piece. (Besides, if my formula was really that accurate I would horde it to myself and be a multi-millionaire like alternate-Biff in the movie Back to the Future 2)

Disclaimer 2: I take no responsibility if you attempt to use this prediction for betting; unless you win - in which case I demand a 10% gratuity. But seriously, if you have a gambling problem and use this to bet, and lose... do not hold me responsible and seek help to beat your addiction.

Some notable statistics and questions from the "Foundation of Facts" above:

1. This is truly the battle of unstoppable force meets immovable object; however, sadly for Aggie fans strong defense usually trumps strong offense.

2. I think the one big thing the Aggies may have in their favor is our 3rd down conversions which could lead to more plays for Aggies offense, and possibly, due to our tempo, wear down the Alabama defense which simply isn’t used to playing 80, 90, or 100 plays in a game.

3. Continuing that train of thought, the most amount of plays that any team has run against Alabama’s defense was LSU with 85 plays. As would be expected, LSU came the closest to defeating Alabama, scored the most points on them of any team this year, and put up the most yards (passing and rushing) of any team Alabama has faced.

4. Demontre Moore has more sacks than the entire Alabama DL combined. Demontre Moore has more sacks than the entire Alabama linebacking corps combined.

5. Johnny Manziel has 1 less completion than AJ McCarron has pass attempts. Johnny Manziel has as many touchdowns running the ball as Alabama’s two leading rushers combined. He only needs 78 yards to get to 1,000 on the season… can he do it?

6. The Ags could win the field-position battle with their advantages in Net Punting, Punt Returns, and Kick off returns.

7. Alabama comes out slow, or conservative, or asleep on offense in the 3rd Quarter. They have only score 34 combined points in the 3rd quarters of this season and have given up 24.

I hope you enjoy this feature and will come back next week to see how the Aggies will fare, statistically, against the SHSU Bearcats in Game 11. Here's a picture of me holding a Bearcat in Bali earlier this year:


Gut Feeling: ‘Bama Wins 31-24

p.s. Don't forget to make your predictions for the game here!!!

LOOK AHEAD: SHSU is 7-2 overall in the FCS and 5-1 in their conference. A&M is coming off an emotional week no matter if they win or lose. SHSU might make it interesting for a quarter, but I doubt it.