What is it that makes me love stats so much? I was in real disbelief last week when I saw what the formulas predicted for the final score. I mean, I knew that Arkansas was down this year, but they are still very talented and I thought that surely our defense was an anomaly (Battered Aggie Syndrome; we've been down, duped, and delirious for so long it was just hard to believe we actually had a good defense). So when the predictions were 46-10 and 47-12, respectively, I was apprehensive to post the Arkansas Foundation of Facts chart at all...
BUT THE AGGIES CAME THROUGH! The defense performed superbly and, even though they sieved yards to Arkansas in the air and didn't get to Tyler Wilson much, they made the stops that counted in the red zone.
Odd Question of the Week: Who are the top 5 teams in point differential per game in the FBS? You may be surprised by a team or two (go to the bottom for answer).
Before you skip to the analysis, please let me first explain the scope, drawbacks, and purpose of this chart. Once you're familiar with this information, you can happily skip ahead in the future. But I insist that you READ THIS NOW before you proceed.
Key to the chart below:
= One team is more than 20 spots ahead of the other team’s inverse metric in the national ranking; i.e. Texas A&M was ranked 68 in Rush Defense versus SMU’s 98 ranked Rushing Offense; therefore, due to A&M being 30 spots ahead of SMU in that metric's national ranking, they get the "advantage".
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Disclaimer 1: The prediction formula is an algorithm that I created which takes into account yardage offense and defense, how a team has performed relative to it's direct competition, injuries, red zone scoring, home/away/neutral, turnover margin, average points scored and allowed, and a multitude of other factors that are all represented on the above. I have been tweaking the formula for 3 years, but nonetheless I have not found a way to accurately predict the outcome of each game because (as my quote above implies) there are simply TOO many variables to account for and too much uncertainty in each game. However, it is fun to include the objective, stat-based, and numbers-only prediction for a conversation piece. (Besides, if my formula was really that accurate I would horde it to myself and be a multi-millionaire like alternate-Biff in the movie )
Disclaimer 2: I take no responsibility if you attempt to use this prediction for betting; unless you win - in which case I demand a 10% gratuity. But seriously, if you have a gambling problem and use this to bet, and lose... do not hold me responsible and seek help to beat your addiction.