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Foundation of Facts: LSU vs. Texas A&M

See how the Louisiana State Tigers stack up against Texas A&M’s Fightin’ Texas Aggies in this week's Foundation of Facts...


Wow, the Ags sure looked good in the first half versus LaTech and were just able to fend off a furious comeback by the offici Bulldogs and pull it off, to my relief. This week we will look at how the LSU Tigers stack up against the Aggies. LSU has played some legitimate defenses this year but have not squared off against as potent an offense as the Aggies' 6th ranked offense.

Some statistics to pay attention to down below:

1. Texas A&M's entire Offense is #1 in the SEC in rushing, total offense, scoring, plays per game, average per rush, 1st downs, and 3rd down efficiency. However, LSU is the #1 average versus the pass, and #2 versus the run, pass total defense, total defense, pass efficiency, Tackles for loss, play per game defense, yards per play defense, average per rush, 1st down defense, etc.

2. LSU plays BAD in the redzone on offense AND defense; at least as far as efficiencies go.

Before you skip to the analysis, please let me first explain the scope, drawbacks, and purpose of this chart. Once you're familiar with this information, you can happily skip ahead in the future. But I insist that you READ THIS NOW before you proceed.


Key to the chart below:
Blue Metric = Top 20 in the Nation
Red Metric = Bottom 20 in the nation
Advantage = One team is more than 20 spots ahead of the other team's inverse metric in the national ranking; i.e. Texas A&M was ranked 68th in Rush Defense versus SMU's 98th ranked Rushing Offense; therefore, due to A&M being 30 spots ahead of SMU in that metric's national ranking, they get the "advantage".

Download: Full Image | PDF Tamu_lsu_20121020_medium

Disclaimer 1: The prediction formula is an algorithm that I created which takes into account yardage offense and defense, how a team has performed relative to it's direct competition, injuries, red zone scoring, home/away/neutral, turnover margin, average points scored and allowed, and a multitude of other factors that are all represented on the above"Foundation of Facts". I have been tweaking the formula for 3 years, but nonetheless I have not found a way to accurately predict the outcome of each game because (as my quote above implies) there are simply TOO many variables to account for and too much uncertainty in each game. However, it is fun to include the objective, stat-based, and numbers-only prediction for a conversation piece. (Besides, if my formula was really that accurate I would horde it to myself and be a multi-millionaire like alternate-Biff in the movie Back to the Future 2)

Disclaimer 2: I take no responsibility if you attempt to use this prediction for betting; unless you win - in which case I demand a 10% gratuity. But seriously, if you have a gambling problem and use this to bet, and lose... do not hold me responsible and seek help to beat your addiction.

Some notable statistics and questions from the "Foundation of Facts" above:

1. I expect A&M to get some sacks, to stop LSU on 3rd down pretty regularly, and to be able to slow their run game. However, LSU could surprise some people by going to the air against this porous Aggie defense.

2. A&M may be 13th in the SEC in total pass defense yards, but we are 6th in average yards per pass allowed; i.e. teams have gotten behind on us and had to pass A LOT, which raises the total pass defense but that doesn't mean we are bad, just victims of the other teams strategy.

3. When was the last time a defensive end led a team in tackles through 6 games? DeMontre Moore is a beast!

4. I know LSU has played South Carolina and Florida, but that doesn't make up for playing powder puffs like Towson, Idaho, and UNT; these teams do not offset, which is reflected in their SOS and their opponent's records.

I hope you enjoy this feature and will come back next week to see how the Aggies will fare, statistically, against the Auburn War Eagligers in Game 8.

Gut Feeling: Aggies Win 27-23

p.s. Don't forget to make your predictions for the game here!!!

LOOK AHEAD: Auburn is 1-5 and 0-4 in the SEC. They have the 116th ranked offense and the 78th ranked defense; in other words, they are about as bad as Idaho; and much worse than Arkansas.