Foundation of Facts: Texas A&M vs LaTech

Wow, the formula didn’t get the spread right (who would have after a -4 turnover margin) versus Ole Miss, but the Ags found a way to pull it off, luckily. This week we will look at how the LaTech "Dawgs" stack up against the Aggies. Though LaTech has played all FBS teams, those teams are horrible, horrible FBS teams all around. Not a single one has a winning record; in fact, they are a combined 8-21 cumulatively. Can you say Cupcakes?

While the Tailgate each week is supposed to be a funny analysis of the game (and it is, believe me), there is nothing funny about what this game means to both programs. Each team is ranked in the Top-25 of both the AP and Coach’s polls. A win for LaTech means they can nearly coast to a possible BCS bowl. A win for the Aggies sets up an intriguing showdown with LSU (4-1)…

Odd Question of the Week: What would Bob Stoops look like with Mack Brown’s hairdo?

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Before you skip to the analysis, please let me first explain the scope, drawbacks, and purpose of this chart. Once you're familiar with this information, you can happily skip ahead in the future. But I insist that you READ THIS NOW before you proceed.

Key to the chart below:
Blue Metric = Top 20 in the Nation
Red Metric = Bottom 20 in the nation
Advantage = One team is more than 20 spots ahead of the other team’s inverse metric in the national ranking; i.e. Texas A&M was ranked 68th in Rush Defense versus SMU’s 98th ranked Rushing Offense; therefore, due to A&M being 30 spots ahead of SMU in that metric's national ranking, they get the "advantage".

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Disclaimer 1: The prediction formula is an algorithm that I created which takes into account yardage offense and defense, how a team has performed relative to it's direct competition, injuries, red zone scoring, home/away/neutral, turnover margin, average points scored and allowed, and a multitude of other factors that are all represented on the above"Foundation of Facts". I have been tweaking the formula for 3 years, but nonetheless I have not found a way to accurately predict the outcome of each game because (as my quote above implies) there are simply TOO many variables to account for and too much uncertainty in each game. However, it is fun to include the objective, stat-based, and numbers-only prediction for a conversation piece. (Besides, if my formula was really that accurate I would horde it to myself and be a multi-millionaire like alternate-Biff in the movie Back to the Future 2)

Disclaimer 2: I take no responsibility if you attempt to use this prediction for betting; unless you win - in which case I demand a 10% gratuity. But seriously, if you have a gambling problem and use this to bet, and lose... do not hold me responsible and seek help to beat your addiction.

I apologize for this getting out a little late this week. On a personal note, I've been moving back from overseas through this season and just landed in a nice house and have been moving crap all week, so... I won't be doing any observations at this time, but I may add some in later tonight if I can circle back around to it.

I hope you enjoy this feature and will come back next week to see how the Aggies will fare, statistically, against the LSU Crawf Tigers in Game 7. (I can already smell the corndogs)

Gut Feeling: Aggies Beat the Bulldogs 55-38

Answer to Odd Question of the Week

p.s. Don't forget to make your predictions for the game here!!!

LOOK AHEAD: Louisiana State is coming off a loss to Florida and has to rebound against another SEC East team, South Carolina. Here’s the kicker: Whether they win or lose, they will be looking ahead to the Alabama Crimson Tide in Game 8 and the Aggies may be able to slip past the stout LSU defense at home. Could the Tigers lose 4 in a row? It would a humbling thing for Tigers Fans and would certainly put Les Miles on the hot seat by the end of the season.