Stat Simulation – Game 4: Texas Aggies vs SMU Mustangs

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Analyzing how the SMU Mustangs stack up against Texas A&M’s Fightin’ Texas Aggies in this week's Stat Simulation...

OKAY, OKAY, OKAY... who the F- at the web1.ncaa.org website decided to shut off the statistics machine and relocate to a 2002 version of online database sharing that is frustrating to utilize, difficult to navigate, is missing games and stats, and simply sucks?

Well the NCAA forced me to go to CFBStats.com and completely rewrite and automate my spreadsheet so now I get 80% of this thing filled out at the push of a button and I can now match up any two teams I want for a quick stat-comparison - speaking of which see the poll below.  Anyways, THANKS ALOT NCAA, FOR MAKING ME DO NECESSARY WORK UPDATING MY CRAP.

Hey, have you guys ever seen the work they've done over at StatMilk?  You can compare any two teams in the nations and match up like-for-like statistics, but you can't take the offense vs defense head-to-head like I do here... It's very interesting stuff though with automated INFOGRAPHICS!

Before you skip to the analysis, please let me first explain the scope, drawbacks, and purpose of this chart. Once you're familiar with this information, you can happily skip ahead in the future. But I insist that you READ THIS NOW before you proceed.

Key to the chart below:
Blue Metric = Top 25 in the Nation
Red Metric = Bottom 25 in the nation
Advantage = One team is more than 20 spots ahead of the other team's inverse metric in the national ranking; i.e. Texas A&M was ranked 68th in Rush Defense versus SMU's 98th ranked Rushing Offense; therefore, due to A&M being 30 spots ahead of SMU in that metric's national ranking, they get the "advantage".

Download: Full Image | PDF

2013_tamu_smu_0921

Download: Full Image | PDF

Disclaimer 1: The prediction formula is an algorithm that I created which takes into account yardage offense and defense, how a team has performed relative to its direct competition, injuries, red zone scoring, home/away/neutral, turnover margin, average points scored and allowed, and a multitude of other factors that are all represented on the above "Foundation of Facts". I have been tweaking the formula for 4 years, but nonetheless I have not found a way to accurately predict the outcome of each game because (as my quote above implies) there are simply TOO many variables to account for and too much uncertainty in each game. However, it is fun to include the objective, stat-based, and numbers-only prediction for a conversation piece. (Besides, if my formula was really that accurate I would horde it to myself and be a multi-millionaire like alternate-Biff in the movie Back to the Future 2)

Disclaimer 2: I take no responsibility if you attempt to use this prediction for betting; unless you win - in which case I demand a 10% gratuity. But seriously, if you have a gambling problem and use this to bet, and lose... do not hold me responsible and seek help to beat your addiction.

NOTABLES

Some notable statistics and questions from the "Stat Simulation" above and each team's website:

1. The A&M offense has had 18 "explosive" rushing plays of 10+ yards (42nd) and 46 "explosive" passing plays of 10+ yards (3rd) equaling 64 long-plays from scrimmage (2nd) placing them even with Oregon and just behind... MARSHALL (WE ARE!)

2. You probably know this, but Mike Evans had 7 catches for 279 yards, and a TD last weekend (against Alabama!).  He is currently 2nd in the nation in yards/game behind Colorado's Paul Richardson (2 games played, no Alabamas played).  His 20 catches for 518 total receiving yards puts him at 3rd overall in yards per catch, though he has double the receptions of both of the guys ahead of him (undiluted stats above him).

3. Johnny Manziel is only 10th in passing yards per game with 328, though he's only played in roughly 9 quarters due to large leads and suspension (Garrett Gilbert is 4th with 352.5).  Johnny is now 5th in Total Yards of offense at 379 per game; he was 1st in 2012 at 393.5.

4. Texas A&M scores a touchdown every 11 plays.  SMU takes 46 plays between touchdowns on average.

5. SMU allows nearly 50% of all third downs to be converted against them.  The Aggies convert over 60% of the time.

6. Garrett Gilbert is the teams rushing leader in attempts (let that sink in) at 12.5 per game.  Prescott Line has 6 per game, and there is a guy on the SMU squad named Traylon Shead... does that sound familiar?  He signed with texas in 2011, went to Navarro JC, and is now playing for the Mustangs.

7. There is only one other program in the great state of Texas with a worse total defense than the Aggies - t.u. - but I doubt we do something silly like fire our coordinator in mid-season.

RANDOM IRRELEVANT STAT OF THE WEEK

Since 2009, the Aggies (with the help of the 12th ManTM) have forced or benefitted from 7.3 or more penalties per game by their opponent at Kyle Field.  They are currently in 4th place for opponent penalties forced at the home team's house.

GUT FEELING

Aggies beat the Mustangs 58-24.  Johnny starts three (3) series in the 3rd quarter and scores 3 touchdowns and doesn't come back in the game.  Ben Malena breaks 100 yards rushing.

LOOK AHEAD

The Arkansas Razorbacks (3-0) are BACK baby.  Well, maybe not yet.  While they've taken care of business against lesser opponents in ULaLa, Samford, and Southern Miss, they did allow Samford to score 21 points.  And their offense hasn't exactly been blistering opponents.  They DO average 5.5 yards per carry which should cause any Aggie defenders reading this to shudder.

I hope you enjoy this feature and will come back next week to see how the Aggies will fare, statistically, against the Arkansas Razorbacks in Game 5.

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