After two weeks, the horses are out of the barn and we have a decent sense of what teams bring to the table. Value can still be found, but with most of the power conferences still in the midst of cupcake parties, we're stuck with a board stocked with fat lines until conference play gets underway.
We started week two with 10,142 GAMBLIN' BUCKS HOLLA! and posted strong results. Not sure how that happened, but chances are it won't happen again.
WEEK TWO IN REVIEW
Texas at BYU +7 WIN (+60 GBHs) A higher scoring affair than expected but the Mormons took care of business. Maybe Texas' offense, with a healthy Ash, isn't totally horrid? That texas defense though. Turns out that running a 4-2-5 against a zone read team is a bad idea. Like get-your-ass-fired bad.
Georgia -3 vs Sakerlina WIN (+60 GBHs) Aaron Murray and company got their act together and Sakerlina's defense isn't all its cracked up to be. Run away from Clowney and offenses can have success.
Illinois +8 vs Cincinnati WIN (+60 GBHs) Not only did the Illini cover, but they won outright. Comfortably. Remember this market pattern, y'all. Non-conference. Road favorite. Public all over the favorite. Line moves the other way. It's not a guaranteed winner, but it should raise a flag that says "play the dog or don't play at all."
Ohio State -27.5 vs. San Diego St WIN (+60 GBHs) Yup. Even with Braxton leaving early in the game, Urban got the result he was looking for.
Baylor -27 vs. Buffalo WIN (+30 GBHs) No mercy. That's what Sensei Art Briles demands. Baylor has a buy this week, but I expect the market to have wised up on the Bears. They're gonna drop points all over your ass.
Michigan -4 vs. Notre Dame WIN (+20 GBHs) Despite the comical gift Devin Gardner handed the Irish, Michigan handled ND with relative easy, establishing an early lead and never relinquishing it. The Michigan offense is legit.
Florida -3 vs. Miami LOSS (-66 GBHs) FUCK YOU JEFF DRISKEL FUCK YOU SO VERY VERY MUCH YOU RUINED MY PERFECT WEEK! There, that feels better. Turnovers are the bane of every handicapper's existence. And by extension, that makes Jeff Driskel an instrument of evil. Florida should have won this game by two scores. But that just gives us value on the Gators later in the year, right?
Heading into week three, it's honestly a weak card. Feeling awfully square as there aren't a lot of dogs I like. So we're going to keep a good portion of our powder dry. One of the worst things a gambler can do is bet when he or she doesn't need to. Discipline is key. Chasing losses or "just trying to get down" are behaviors that lead to bankroll devastation.
Current Bankroll: 10,366 GBHs
THE GAME: TCU -3 at Texas Tech In which Baker Mayfield discovers that TCU's defense is a wee bit better than SMU's and SFA's. Poor Baker will see more exotic looks than a sailor visiting Bangkok. Everyone loves home dogs on Thursday nights. But I love veteran coaches of great defense against true freshman quarterbacks even more.
THE BET: TCU -3 (44 GBHs to win 40)
THE GAME: Rice -6.5 vs Kansas As we all saw two weeks ago, Rice can move the ball well and score points. They're a veteran team. And Kansas' run defense is terrible, yielding 5+ YPC against... [rummaging around in the FCS pantry]... South Dakota? Yes, South Dakota. That big #12 RB for the Owls? He'll eat on Saturday.
THE BET: Rice -6.5 (55 GBHs to win 50)
THE GAME: Texas -2.5 vs Ole Miss Everyone and their talk radio host likes the Rebels in this one. Texas is a mess. Mack Brown is a dead man walking. LOL GREG ROBINSON. And yet the Longhorns are still favored against those upstart kids from Oxford? Market overreacting a tad to last week, perhaps? Hmm... Mack staves off the lynch mob. For now.
THE BET: Texas -2.5 (44 GBHs to win 40)
THE GAME: Louisville -13.5 at Kentucky Yes, it's a rivalry in the Commonwealth and yes, it's being played in Lexington. The bottom line is this: If you want to be taken seriously as a MNC contender from a weak conference and as a leading Heisman candidate, you have to be able to blow out the dregs of the SEC.
THE BET: Louisville -13.5 (55 GBHs to win 50)
THE GAME: Alabama -7.5 at Texas A&M This is a game that's been getting talked about a fair amount this week, and perhaps you've heard a few words being spoken about it. Sumlin is one of the best big game coaches in the country and this is the biggest of games. Even though the public loves the Tide here, I have to go with the home dog, 90,000 screaming fans, and the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. Giving a team with Johnny Football more than a TD at home? I'll take that every time.
THE BET: A&M +7.5 (66 GBHs to win 60)
Arizona State -5 vs Wisconsin (22 GBHs to win 20) The Badgers are going on the road to play a team with a competent offense. Now this is where I get all science-y on ya. Be wary of eastern teams going west to play late night games.
Ohio State at Cal OVER 66 (22 GBHs to win 20) In week one, spread offense amateurs Buffalo put up 20 on the Buckeyes at the horseshoe. What do you think Sonny Dykes will do at home?
Nebraska -4.5 vs UCLA (22 GBHs to win 20) Everyone likes the visiting Bruins with a 9am Pacific time start? Interesting. Besides, paying a little tax to see Bo Pelini lose his shit is worth it, no?
Who do you like this weekend? See any hidden gems? Good luck!