GBH GAMBLIN' GUIDE: WEEK ELEVEN

Last week, the bookmaker was Johnny. And we were the UTEP defense. Metaphor. - Bob Levey

Licking our wounds from Week Ten, but pressing on, still in the black.

It's going to be a brief write up this week, both because we're pressed for time and because we're still shell shocked from last week. The faint silver lining is we're still in plus territory for the season. Yay?

WEEK TEN IN REVIEW

Even the best handicappers step on landmines from time to time. We are not nearly among the best, so we step on them much more frequently. Week ten just happened to be the first time in 2013 that we truly received the involuntary, ordinance-assisted joy ride.

Washington State +12 vs Arizona State (-77 GBHs) The square bettors cashed their "easy money" win as Wazzu came out flat and made Arizona State look like the top ten team that they aren't.

Tennessee +11.5 at Mizzou (-77 GBHs) Yep, another "easy money" cash for John Q. Public. The Vols put up token resistance early but all those trips into Mizzou territory resulted in a whopping 3 points.

Michigan State -6 vs Michigan (+70 GBHs) Aww... look at that blind squirrel! He found an acorn! Thanks for the gift, Brady Hoke. -48 rushing yards for the Wolverines on the day. A Michigan Man doesn't run the ball across the line of scrimmage, apparently.

Arkansas +8 vs Auburn (-77 GBHs) What's that you say? Another cruise-across-the-finish-line win for the public? Of course. BERT, you aren't winning any games this year, but could you at least cover the damn spread once in a blue moon?

Texas Tech -2.5 vs Oklahoma State (-77 GBHs) This is one we would "buy our way out of" on Saturday had we actually placed a non-hypothetical bet last Thursday. There was a torrent of late smart money on the Cowboys, moving the line to oSu -2.5, a massive shift, particularly since it crossed they key number of 0. It's one thing to not get the best of the number by a half point or a point, but when you're off by FIVE FULL POINTS, it's a sign you need to minimize your exposure. Sometimes new market information becomes available before kickoff, and there's no shame in taking out the eraser, drinking some juice, and buying your way out of a mistake. Paying a small price to undo a bad position will keep you stronger in the long run.

Texas -28 vs Kansas (-22 GBHs) If you want to know why you're undefeated in conference play and not ranked, Texas, this is why. Gotta be able to drop 40+ on the KU's of the world.

Nevada at Fresno St OVER 73.5 (-22 GBHs) Nearly 1100 total yards and 49 first downs and the game stays under the total. Mercy.

Miami at Florida State OVER 61 (-22 GBHs) One... more... touchdown. Ya couldn't give us one more for poll points, Noles?

Looking at all the blood spattered about the area, it seems we hemorrhaged 304 GBHs. We're going to dial back our bet size a bit this week as a result.

Current Bankroll: 10234 GBHs

THE GAME Baylor -15 vs Oklahoma

The Tarp is off. Seats are going for more than $5 on StubHub. It's madness in Waco. OU is a mediocre team with a shaky QB about to walk face first into a hornet's nest. It won't end well for Big Game Bob. Get it now at 15, because this one's heading higher.

THE BET Baylor -15 (55 GBHs to win 50)

THE GAME Oregon -10 at Stanford

A second helping of delicious Thursday night action. You're calling in hungover to work Friday morning. Concede that point now. As for the game, Stanford's dominating front seven figured out how to slow down Oregon last year. This game is a repeat of that slugfest, and the public piling on road favorite Oregon tells us we need to be on the home dog that's faced the much tougher schedule to date. Oregon wins, but by single digits.

THE BET Stanford +10 (55 GBHs to win 50)

THE GAME Missouri -14 at Kentucky

A fade-the-public spot. It's not that we hate you, Tigers. We fully expect you to win the game outright. But when 90%+ of the tickets are on your side and the line hasn't budged, we have to go contrarian. It's not personal. It's business.

THE BET Kentucky +14 (55 GBHs to win 50)

THE GAME Notre Dame -4 at Pitt

Well this spread is certainly intriguing. The public is all over a "ranked" Notre Dame team that was, in all honesty, lucky to get by Navy at home last week. Now the Irish go on the road to face a Pitt team that's lost some close games to decent teams. And the line has dropped from 5 to 4. We'll tail the smart money here, as usual.

THE BET Pitt +4 (55 GBHs to win 50)

THE GAME LSU +12.5 at Alabama

Saturday's main event. The word for this game is consistent. Bama is, and LSU isn't. If the Tigers played their best game for four quarters, they could conceivable keep the margin to single digits. But they can't. And the LSU offense that only hung 17 on Florida won't be able to do any better against the Tide.

THE BET Alabama -12.5 (55 GBHs to win 50)

BONUS BETS

Mississippi State at Texas A&M OVER 69 (22 GBHs to win 20) Johnny says goodbye and the A&M defense from September and October says hello.

Arkansas at Ole Miss -16 (22 GBHs to win 20) If you want to think of yourselves as one of the cool kids, Rebels, you need to get in on the Welcome BERT to The SEC blanket party.

Auburn -7 at Tennessee (22 GBHs to win 20) HURR DURR A "top ten" team only giving seven on the road? Sure, we'll get suckered into that.

Who ya got tonight and this Saturday? Lord knows that after last week we need some good ideas.

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