Stat Simulation - Game 9: #12 Texas Aggies vs UTEP Miners

Thomas Campbell-USA TODAY Sports

Analyzing how the UTEP Miners stack up against Texas A&M’s Fightin’ Texas Aggies (#12) in this week's Stat Simulation...

To be honest, this game should be no contest.  Kenny Hill should be playing by the end of the 2nd Quarter - letting Johnny rest his shoulder some more before Miss St. and LSU.  The Miners have a true freshman running back that is averaging over 100 yards a game, but they've only really played one team above .500 - Rice... who beat UTEP 45-7, and who we beat 52-31.

Johnny and Mike Evans could use the stats from this game to boost their Heisman campaign. I know other names are mentioned more often than these two Aggies, but we also know the other candidates have several tough games in front of them - one slip up and our boys go back up the rankings.

Hey, have you guys ever seen the work they've done over at StatMilk?  You can compare any two teams in the nations and pretty match up like-for-like statistics, but you can't take them offense vs defense head-to-head like I do here... It's very interesting stuff though with automated INFOGRAPHICS!

Before you skip to the analysis, please let me first explain the scope, drawbacks, and purpose of this chart. Once you're familiar with this information, you can happily skip ahead in the future. But I insist that you READ THIS NOW before you proceed.

Key to the chart below:
Blue Metric = Top 25 in the Nation
Red Metric = Bottom 25 in the nation
Advantage = One team is more than 20 spots ahead of the other team's inverse metric in the national ranking; i.e. Texas A&M was ranked 68th in Rush Defense versus SMU's 98th ranked Rushing Offense; therefore, due to A&M being 30 spots ahead of SMU in that metric's national ranking, they get the "advantage".

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2013_tamu_utep_1031

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Disclaimer 1: The prediction formula is an algorithm that I created which takes into account yardage offense and defense, how a team has performed relative to its direct competition, injuries, red zone scoring, home/away/neutral, turnover margin, average points scored and allowed, and a multitude of other factors that are all represented on the above "Foundation of Facts". I have been tweaking the formula for 4 years, but nonetheless I have not found a way to accurately predict the outcome of each game because (as my quote above implies) there are simply TOO many variables to account for and too much uncertainty in each game. However, it is fun to include the objective, stat-based, and numbers-only prediction for a conversation piece. (Besides, if my formula was really that accurate I would horde it to myself and be a multi-millionaire like alternate-Biff in the movie Back to the Future 2)

Disclaimer 2: I take no responsibility if you attempt to use this prediction for betting; unless you win - in which case I demand a 10% gratuity. But seriously, if you have a gambling problem and use this to bet, and lose... do not hold me responsible and seek help to beat your addiction.

RANDOM IRRELEVANT STAT OF THE WEEK

Versus non-Winning FBS opponents, Trey Williams has 18 carries for 170 yards - averaging 9.44 per carry - and two (2) touchdowns.

GUT FEELING

Aggies beat the Miners easily 66-6 in a game that many Aggies will point to as a sign our defense has arrived for two weeks in a row.  The Miners never have a chance.

LOOK AHEAD

Mississippi State (4-3,1-2 Conf) will face the Aggies for our last home game before the Kyle Field Renovation Part I begins.  Besides the seniors, this could be Johnny Manziel's, Mike Evans', and several other underclassmen's last game in Kyle Field.

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