November is here, and the early excitement of OMG COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING! has worn off. Plenty of folks have managed their bankrolls poorly, placing bets that are too large and putting themselves in positions that have already guaranteed a losing campaign. Here at GBH World Headquarters, we've got some house money to play with!
WEEK NINE IN REVIEW
We posted another winning week in week nine (that's seven winning weeks on the year) and are ready to approach the final full month of the season from a position of strength. While only one of our three underdog against-the-spread picks cashed against the spread, it was also a team that won outright. Again, we encourage you to show the money line some love if you really like a dog. We went 3-2 on our main bets and 2-1 on our bonus bets to lock in a nice bankroll bump.
Colorado +14 vs Arizona (-77 GBHs) The Buffs hung tough, leading the game late in the second quarter and giving us a push at the close of three quarters, but Arizona was just too much and the Colorado offense couldn't keep up with what their atrocious run defense was allowing (8+ YPC).
Bama -28 vs Tennessee (+70 GBHs) We wrote: "Think the Tide can hang 38+ on the Vols? You do? Well, that's all you need to know, because UT isn't going to score more than 10." Final score? 42-10. The beauty of Nick Saban is his ability to get 18-22 year olds to perform consistently at a high level. And that's also what makes him a great coach against the spread.
TCU -2 vs Texas (-77 GBHs) Despite the return of Casey Pachall, TCU's offense failed to show. And after a lengthy weather delay, it seemed TCU had lost interest in the game altogether. Painful to say, but Mack actually has his team playing with confidence and Greg Robinson - yes, THAT Greg Robinson - has the Texas D much improved. Not a good sign for Manny Diaz's future career prospects.
Minnesota +10.5 vs Nebraska (+70 GBHs) The public LOVED the Huskers, which sent us running. Bo Pelini is good for at least one WTF game a season. Last year it was the Big 10+2 Championship game. This year it was a road trip to Minnesota, with the Gophers running the ball effectively and 9th year senior Taylor Martinez playing like a true freshman.
Oregon -23.5 vs UCLA (+70 GBHs) Remember when this game was knotted at 14 in the third quarter? Yea, then Oregon started doing Oregon things and UCLAs young team showed the hallmarks of a young team: Getting worn down and making mistakes. The lesson: With Oregon, no spread is safe. They can turn a tie game into a four TD blowout in a flash.
Ohio State -14.5 vs Penn State (+20 GBHs) One of those "Yea, that should have been a full play" games, with the cover safely in the barn by halftime.
Sakerlina at Mizzou O54 (-22 GBHs) It's bad form to blame a college kid for losing a game, but blaming him for losing a bet? Yea, that's cool. College kickers, man...
Baylor at Kansas O66 (+20 GBHs) You've been a generous man this season, Mr. Briles.
Doing some arithmetic, we added 66 GBHs from our major bets and another 18 from the bonus bets, for a gain of 84 GBHs. Oregon and Bama aren't on the board this weekend, so we'll have to look elsewhere for winners. Let's go.
Current Bankroll: 10538 GBHs
THE GAME Washington State +12 vs Arizona State
We have all the makings of a closer-than-expected-game here. Thursday night road trip. Home underdog. Warm weather team traveling into the cold. And Mike Leach on Halloween. The public is on the Sun Devils, but the line has ticked the other way. We'll follow the sharps here.
THE BET Washington State +12 (77 GBHs to win 70)
THE GAME Tennesee +11.5 at Mizzou
How will Mizzou respond to the soul crushing loss last week? If the line movement and bet distribution is any indication, the smart money is thinking "not well". Despite a public decisively on Mizzou, the line has dropped from two touchdowns to as low as 10 in spots. Mauktober is over, folks.
THE BET Tennessee +11.5 (77 GBHs to win 70)
THE GAME Michigan State -6 vs Michigan
An executive summary of Michigan's road performances this year: A three point win over UConn and a three point loss at Penn State. And they're going to score consistently and stay within a TD of a Michigan State team that still has their usual python of a defense paired with an offense that suddenly looks competent? No funny line movement or bet distributions here. Sparty at home.
THE BET Michigan State -6 (77 GBHs to win 70)
THE GAME Arkansas +8 vs Auburn
The most eyebrow raising game of the week. Fully 88% of the public is on Auburn, while the line has dropped from 10 down to 8. Every square instinct says GUS MALZAHN IS GIVING AWAY FREE MONEY. Because Arkansas is awful and Auburn is competent and has that shiny Top 10 ranking. Duh. But discipline means looking at the numbers, not just the teams. [places bet, runs into brick wall for hating self]
THE BET Arkansas +8 (77 GBHs to win 70)
THE GAME Texas Tech -2.5 vs Oklahoma State
The public likes Kliff's Raiders here, and the line has followed, so there's no fishy smell. Kliff will have his team prepared after falling short in Norman. Oklahoma State is iffy on the road, and all Aggies are quite familiar with the mystical powers of night games in Lubbock.
THE BET Texas Tech -2.5 (77 GBHs to win 70)
Texas -28 vs Kansas (22 GBHs to win 20) If you thought Kansas was bad at home, just wait til you see 'em in front of 100,000+ occasionally lively fans at Joe Jamail Field at Darrell K. Royal Texas Memorial Stadium.
Nevada at Fresno State OVER 73.5 (22 GBHs to win 20) The WAC is dead, but its no-defense soul lives on late this Saturday night.
Miami at Florida State OVER 61 (22 GBHs to win 20) In which Jameis Winston becomes the Heisman frontrunner while demolishing a vastly overrated Miami.
Enjoy watching A&M's scrimmage late Saturday evening, y'all, and here's to keeping up our winning ways. Keep cashin' out!