Sorry for getting this out so late this week everyone. I hope there aren't too many mistakes (like Arkansas' turnover record); I spent about 8 hours on the road today driving back from Cajun country after working offshore some this week. My brain is at the point of delirium and I am just typing the first thing that comes out right now.
So SCSU fell as expected. And Arkansas look just as bad as everyone says they are. I know this team has talent, but the metric rankings just do not look good this week. My score prediction formula even kicked out the most lopsided conference game score I have seen yet... it better be right this time!
Anyways, it's an early morning game, so I better get this over with and post the stats so I can go to bed and hit a few early tailgates tomorrow.
Before you skip to the analysis, please let me first explain the scope, drawbacks, and purpose of this chart. Once you're familiar with this information, you can happily skip ahead in the future. But I insist that you READ THIS NOW before you proceed.
Key to the chart below:
Blue Metric = Top 20 in the Nation
Red Metric = Bottom 20 in the nation
Advantage = One team is more than 20 spots ahead of the other team’s inverse metric in the national ranking; i.e. Texas A&M was ranked 68th in Rush Defense versus SMU’s 98th ranked Rushing Offense; therefore, due to A&M being 30 spots ahead of SMU in that metric's national ranking, they get the "advantage".
Disclaimer 1: The prediction formula is an algorithm that I created which takes into account yardage offense and defense, how a team has performed relative to it's direct competition, injuries, red zone scoring, home/away/neutral, turnover margin, average points scored and allowed, and a multitude of other factors that are all represented on the above"Foundation of Facts". I have been tweaking the formula for 3 years, but nonetheless I have not found a way to accurately predict the outcome of each game because (as my quote above implies) there are simply TOO many variables to account for and too much uncertainty in each game. However, it is fun to include the objective, stat-based, and numbers-only prediction for a conversation piece. (Besides, if my formula was really that accurate I would horde it to myself and be a multi-millionaire like alternate-Biff in the movie Back to the Future 2)
Disclaimer 2: I take no responsibility if you attempt to use this prediction for betting; unless you win - in which case I demand a 10% gratuity. But seriously, if you have a gambling problem and use this to bet, and lose... do not hold me responsible and seek help to beat your addiction.
Some notable statistics and questions from the "Foundation of Facts" above:
1. Three turnovers per game for Arkansas...
2. The Razorbacks best quarter is the 1st Quarter and they taper off after that, the Ags best quarter is the 2nd Quarter and they mostly play their 2nd stringers in the 2nd half...
3. The Razorbacks sure are in the bottom 100-120 in a lot of metric categories. More than I've seen in a while.
I hope you enjoy this feature and will come back next week to see how the Aggies will fare, statistically, against the Arkasnas Razorbacks (with or without Tyler Wilson, that is the question) in Game 4.
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